Projected Orioles 2019 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

[AZRon]

The 2018 Orioles opening day payroll (ODP) was $154.45M, down 6.1% from 2017. The total for MLB was down less than 1%.

My current projection for the O's 2019 ODP is just over $79M. That's down 48.8% from 2018. Davis, Trumbo, Cashner and Cobb account for $58.5M (73.9%) of that total.

The "rebuild" obviously portends a period of lower ODPs and I'm curious as to where others think the 2019 ODP will shake out.

On the one hand, the O's may attempt to continue their hacksaw approach and unload Cashner, and/or Cobb and/or Trumbo while attempting a workout with Davis. Alternatively or additionally, they may add a couple/few middling free agents in an attempt to improve the appearance of major league competitiveness.

So fill in the blanks and add your comments

The 2019 Orioles ODP will be between $____M and $____M

I'm guessing that the ODP will be less than $100M and likely between $80M and $90M.

[Number5]

On ‎10‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 3:41 PM, AZRon said:

The 2018 Orioles opening day payroll (ODP) was $154.45M, down 6.1% from 2017. The total for MLB was down less than 1%.

My current projection for the O's 2019 ODP is just under 80M. That's down 51.7% from 2018. Davis, Trumbo, Cashner and Cobb account for 58.5M (73.2%) of that total.

The "rebuild" obviously portends a period of lower ODPs and I'm curious as to where others think the 2019 ODP will shake out.

On the one hand, the O's may attempt to continue their hacksaw approach and unload Cashner, and/or Cobb and/or Trumbo while attempting a workout with Davis. Alternatively or additionally, they may add a couple/few middling free agents in an attempt to improve the appearance of major league competitiveness.

So fill in the blanks and add your comments

The 2019 Orioles ODP will be between $____M and $____M

Picking nits, I know, but it's actually 51.7% of 2018's opening day payroll, not down 51.7%.  It would be down 48.3%.  Not a big deal and doesn't change your overall point.

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Picking nits, I know, but it's actually 51.7% of 2018's opening day payroll, not down 51.7%.  It would be down 48.3%.  Not a big deal and doesn't change your overall point.

Thanks, I made the correction -- so that's why you have "Number" as part of your message board moniker  

 

[TommyPickles]

Jace Peterson is terrible.

[AZRon]

I've updated the projected ODP for the removal of Jace Peterson from the 40 man roster. 

I've replaced Peterson with Austin Hays.

The projected ODP now stands at $79.12M

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, AZRon said:

I've updated the projected ODP for the removal of Jace Peterson from the 40 man roster. 

I've replaced Peterson with Austin Hays.

The projected ODP now stands at $79.12M

Need to get it down into the 60s. Have to get rid of Trumbo and Cashner without giving up a compensation pick.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Need to get it down into the 60s. Have to get rid of Trumbo and Cashner without giving up a compensation pick.

I was thinking the Cashner contract might be tradeable.

Then I went back and looked again.

ERA over 5, FIP over 5 WHIP over 1.5

Poor BB/K numbers.

Not sure someone will take over that contract.

 

[mdbdotcom]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was thinking the Cashner contract might be tradeable.

Then I went back and looked again.

ERA over 5, FIP over 5 WHIP over 1.5

Poor BB/K numbers.

Not sure someone will take over that contract.

 

Have to position him as the next Wade Miley. Sucks with the O's, brilliant after he leaves.

[atomic]

These numbers are not accurate.  Cobb will be paid 9.5 million next year.  Trumbo 11 million.  Davis 16.5 million.  You cant count deferred money as the upcoming years payroll.

[AZRon]

4 minutes ago, atomic said:

These numbers are not accurate.  Cobb will be paid 9.5 million next year.  Trumbo 11 million.  Davis 16.5 million.  You cant count deferred money as the upcoming years payroll.

I urge you to re-read my opening post.

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, AZRon said:

I urge you to re-read my opening post.

Sorry didn't see deferred column on my phone.

[VaBird1]

How much does Caleb Joseph’s salary change if he is in AAA?

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

How much does Caleb Joseph’s salary change if he is in AAA?

If Caleb is tendered a contract with the O's it will not matter if he is in the majors or the minors he will get the same salary.  That is because he is arbitration eligible and his agent will make sure that happens like all/most other arbitration eligible players.

If he is non tendered, he becomes a free agent.  If he signs a minor league contract with the O's he probably make 300 to 400k in the minors with a bump to a million or more if he is called up to the majors.

  I think Caleb will find a job I'm the majors this season unless the O's tender him and option him to the minors at his full major league salary.

[AZRon]

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

If Caleb is tendered a contract with the O's it will not matter if he is in the majors or the minors he will get the same salary.  That is because he is arbitration eligible and his agent will make sure that happens like all/most other arbitration eligible players.

If he is non tendered, he becomes a free agent.  If he signs a minor league contract with the O's he probably make 300 to 400k in the minors with a bump to a million or more if he is called up to the majors.

  I think Caleb will find a job I'm the majors this season unless the O's tender him and option him to the minors at his full major league salary.

I agree with Wildcard.

I believe that Joseph has at least 1 minor league option remaining (possibly, 2). As a "proven", optionable, major league catcher, with a major league payroll hit of less than $2M, he is most likely to garner a 40-man roster spot.

[wildbillhiccup]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was thinking the Cashner contract might be tradeable.

Then I went back and looked again.

ERA over 5, FIP over 5 WHIP over 1.5

Poor BB/K numbers.

Not sure someone will take over that contract.

 

Not unless they eat some of that salary and catch a team in desperation mode (i.e., one of their key SPs gets injured). There's a reason why no one else wanted to sign Cashner. A deep dive into his career numbers showed that there was a very good chance he'd be awful. So we, of course, gave him a three year contract. Another feather in Brady's cap.