Projected Orioles 2019 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

[wildbillhiccup]

PS) Beckham should most certainly be non tendered. Nothing he does justifies his poor defense. He's not part of the solution. 

[AZRon]

Here's some "analytics" on the relationship (for the last 3 years) between ODP and a team's season winning percentage. Hint: look way down at the bottom of the chart for the O's 2018 entry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kirkwakefield/2018/11/10/trouble-with-the-curve-does-mlb-payroll-spending-translate-into-winning/#13548e1c548d

[AZRon]

Replaced non-tendered Caleb Joseph with Chance Sisco.
See opening post

Projected 2019 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $77.97M

[Ohfan67]

On 11/11/2018 at 10:38 AM, AZRon said:

Here's some "analytics" on the relationship (for the last 3 years) between ODP and a team's season winning percentage. Hint: look way down at the bottom of the chart for the O's 2018 entry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kirkwakefield/2018/11/10/trouble-with-the-curve-does-mlb-payroll-spending-translate-into-winning/#13548e1c548d

My god, those are terrible regressions. No statistically valid reason to try to fit a line with that manyslopes to those data. But anyway...I played around with wins versus payroll recently. I wanted to start a thread in MLB section to discuss but didn’t finish. The relationship is much weaker or in some years basically non-existent. This year was particularly fun. If you look at the five or six biggest and smallest payrolls, for example, the probability of making the playoffs was almost the same for the two groups. What a change from the 90’s and early naughts. It looks like an effect of the decrease in steroid use. In the steroid era you could just buy 30+ year old superstars and buy wins. Those ageless wonders who get better at age 33 and 34 are pretty rare if not extinct now. More fun IMO. 

[ScGO's]

I wonder if this is what ME is going into the season with as far as payroll and roster for the most part.  He might have a goal to get the payroll below 40 million by next year's opening day.  He may use this season to test out some analytics on the likes of Givens, Bundy, Cobb, Cashner, Trumbo, Villar, and maybe even Davis and try and boost their value and swing them for player value instead of as a salary dump, which they would be if we sold on them now.  

He might be able to create a market for Givens, Bundy, or Villar this offseason if the market shifts that way.

2020 might actually be our first barebones seasons as Bundy, Cobb, Cashner heading into 2019 isn't the worst 123 punch I've ever seen.  We'll be bad, but, probably 90 loses bad.  Losing Jones, Joseph, Schoop, Velncia, and Beckham may actually allow some positive defensive value to sneak in that we didn't have last year.  Not having the Tillman or Rasmus experiments will allow some replaceable value that has to be more positive than what they provided.  Players like Mullins, Nunez, Mancini, Sisco, and Kline are good candidates to trend up a little. I don't believe Mancini will be in the OF this season either.

Might not be a bad idea to try and go into this season and promote the underdog competitiveness bit to help some of these players boost their value.  It would be fun to hover around .500 until a sell off in the summer.  I know, never gonna happen.

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, AZRon said:

Replaced non-tendered Caleb Joseph with Chance Sisco.
See opening post

Projected 2019 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $77.97M

And 50 million of that is Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Alex Cobb.  They will be gone at some point between now and 2020.  A 35 million payroll for 2020? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

And 50 million of that is Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Alex Cobb.  They will be gone at some point between now and 2020.  A 35 million payroll for 2020? 

How can you be sure Cobb and Davis will be gone?

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How can you be sure Cobb and Davis will be gone?

Not sure...just thinking out loud....Cobb will be a key prospect returner at the deadline this year if he pitches even close to his career averages...Davis may well be so awful again in 2019, he could be axed in 2020...they will go one year with him being a nonplayer, doubt they go two.  But they could, I suppose...or he could rebound, I suppose. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Not sure...just thinking out loud....Cobb will be a key prospect returner at the deadline this year if he pitches even close to his career averages...Davis may well be so awful again in 2019, he could be axed in 2020...they will go one year with him being a nonplayer, doubt they go two.  But they could, I suppose...or he could rebound, I suppose. 

I don't think it is a sure thing that Cobb rebounds to the point where his contract is attractive to other teams.

It might happen, it might not.

If other teams were interested in him at that price he wouldn't have signed with the O's in the first place.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I wonder if this is what ME is going into the season with as far as payroll and roster for the most part.  He might have a goal to get the payroll below 40 million by next year's opening day.  He may use this season to test out some analytics on the likes of Givens, Bundy, Cobb, Cashner, Trumbo, Villar, and maybe even Davis and try and boost their value and swing them for player value instead of as a salary dump, which they would be if we sold on them now.  

He might be able to create a market for Givens, Bundy, or Villar this offseason if the market shifts that way.

2020 might actually be our first barebones seasons as Bundy, Cobb, Cashner heading into 2019 isn't the worst 123 punch I've ever seen.  We'll be bad, but, probably 90 loses bad.  Losing Jones, Joseph, Schoop, Velncia, and Beckham may actually allow some positive defensive value to sneak in that we didn't have last year.  Not having the Tillman or Rasmus experiments will allow some replaceable value that has to be more positive than what they provided.  Players like Mullins, Nunez, Mancini, Sisco, and Kline are good candidates to trend up a little. I don't believe Mancini will be in the OF this season either.

Might not be a bad idea to try and go into this season and promote the underdog competitiveness bit to help some of these players boost their value.  It would be fun to hover around .500 until a sell off in the summer.  I know, never gonna happen.

Mancini is a curious one.   With Davis and Trumbo on the team he either plays LF, the bench or AAA as long as Elias tries to stick with Davis at 1B.   Trumbo has to play a lot to boost his trade value probably at DH.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is a sure thing that Cobb rebounds to the point where his contract is attractive to other teams.

It might happen, it might not.

If other teams were interested in him at that price he wouldn't have signed with the O's in the first place.

Teams were not interested in paying Cobb what he got for 4 years.  By July it will only be 2 1/2 years.   That could make a big difference in his trade value if he has a good first half.

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Not sure...just thinking out loud....Cobb will be a key prospect returner at the deadline this year if he pitches even close to his career averages...Davis may well be so awful again in 2019, he could be axed in 2020...they will go one year with him being a nonplayer, doubt they go two.  But they could, I suppose...or he could rebound, I suppose. 

I'm pretty sure that Davis will be on the payroll whether he is on the roster or not.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Not sure...just thinking out loud....Cobb will be a key prospect returner at the deadline this year if he pitches even close to his career averages...Davis may well be so awful again in 2019, he could be axed in 2020...they will go one year with him being a nonplayer, doubt they go two.  But they could, I suppose...or he could rebound, I suppose. 

If Davis does not rebound he is more likely to become a part time player or bench player then to be released IMO.

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Teams were not interested in paying Cobb what he got for 4 years.  By July it will only be 2 1/2 years.   That could make a big difference in his trade value if he has a good first half.

If he gets back to somewhere between 2.5-4 WAR, certainly could be flipped for a return even with his current contract, I would think. 

[Andtothewall]

43 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

 If he gets back to somewhere between 2.5-4 WAR, certainly could be flipped for a return even with his current contract, I would think. 

Worth noting also that he seems to have recovered from Tommy John, which I'm sure scared teams away last offseason.