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weams

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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It seems like every guy that would be last man in the bullpen or last bat on the bench is projected at 1 yr/$5 mill.  A lot of these guys will be lucky to get contracts.  I don't see Britton getting more than 1 year to try to rebuild his value, maybe 2 at the most.  Brach projected for 3 years/$27 mill.  xD

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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1 minute ago, weams said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

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38.  Nick Markakis – Phillies.  Two years, $16MM.  Markakis had a couple of excellent early-career years with the Orioles, eventually landing a four-year deal with Atlanta after the 2014 season.  The right fielder was a one-win type of player from 2015-17, but then for the first four months of 2018 Markakis unexpectedly posted a 129 wRC+.  In truth, he’s probably a league average hitter, and he’ll turn 35 in November.  Aging corner bats of this mold have not been valued highly on the free-agent or trade markets in recent years.

39.  Derek Holland – Reds.  Two years, $15MM.  Holland, a 32-year-old southpaw starter, had a solid run in the Rangers’ rotation from 2011-13 before injuries torpedoed his next few seasons.  Coming off a terrible year with the White Sox in 2017, Holland joined the Giants on a minor league deal in February.  Due to injuries to the Giants’ veteran starters, Holland joined the rotation and wound up posting a 3.67 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 30 starts.  His 3.87 FIP and 4.07 xFIP lend some credence to the notion that he’s returned to his status as a viable starter, even if his ceiling seems limited.

40.  Bud Norris – Indians.  Two years, $12MM.  Norris, 34 in March, has transitioned successfully from the rotation to the bullpen.  This year for the Cardinals, he managed a 3.59 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, and 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 57 2/3 innings, including 28 saves.  His ERA sat at 2.85 in August 28th and ballooned after a rough week in September.  Another factor to consider is that Norris is decidedly old school in the clubhouse, and was revealed as Mike Matheny’s bullpen monitor in Mark Saxon’s July story for The Athletic.  A two-year deal seems likely.

41.  Brad Brach – Brewers.  Two years, $12MM.  Brach, 33 in April, had success out of the Orioles’ bullpen with a 2.74 ERA and 9.5 K/9 from 2014-17.  He even earned an All-Star nod in 2016.  After a rough 39 innings to begin his 2018 campaign, Brach was traded to Atlanta.  The top line result — a 1.52 ERA — was strong, but Brach’s peripheral stats didn’t support it.  He remains a useful righty arm, but his stock took a hit in 2018.

42.  Wade Miley – Brewers.  Two years, $12MM.  Miley, 32 in November, had a decent run for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox from 2012-15.  His ERA jumped to 5.48 from 2016-17 for the Mariners and Orioles, which is why he settled for a minor league deal with the Brewers in February.  He sprained his groin in the spring but made his way to the big league club in May.  In his second start for the Brewers, Miley strained his oblique, knocking him out for over a month.  Once he returned on July 12th, Miley posted a 2.66 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, and 53.3% ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings across 14 starts.  Miley had a .274 batting average on balls in play and a 5.7% home run per fly-ball rate during that time, neither of which seems sustainable.  It was a useful run for the Brewers, but it’s not clear Miley is a different pitcher than he was before 2018.

43.  Garrett Richards – Tigers.  Two years, $10MM.  Richards, 30, has spent his entire career with the Angels, with his best work coming in 2014-15.  He’s made only 28 starts over the past three seasons after deciding to treat a torn UCL with a platelet-rich plasma injection.  He also endured a biceps strain in 2017 and a hamstring strain this year before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in July.  The 2019 season is out of the picture for Richards, who could sign a two-year deal in the vein of those inked by Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda.  A team would be paying entirely for Richards’ 2020 season.  Just about any club that wants to plan ahead and has some payroll space and mild tolerance for risk could be a candidate.

44.  Jesse Chavez – Cubs.  Two years, $10MM.  Chavez, 35, nearly saved the Cubs’ beleaguered bullpen by posting a 1.15 ERA in 39 innings after coming over in a July trade with the Rangers.  Putting the Rays’ Ryan Yarbrough aside, Chavez led MLB with 95 1/3 relief innings.  Among relievers with at least 60 innings, Chavez’s 4.5% walk rate was third best.  He was much more hittable and homer prone before joining the Cubs, so there is reason to hesitate.  Chavez seems to want to return to Chicago, which would be a win for both sides.

45.  CC Sabathia – Angels.  One year, $8MM.  Sabathia is winding down a potential Hall of Fame career and aims to pitch one more season.  He’s served the Yankees well for a decade, even as he’s faded into a back-of-the-rotation starter.  The 38-year-old lefty could wind up near home on the West Coast if the Yankees move on, and the Angels (where former Yankees exec Billy Eppler is GM) had interest last winter.

46.  Adam Jones – Indians.  One year, $8MM.  Jones, 33, completed his 11th season in the Orioles’ outfield.  He’s well beyond his 2012-14 heyday, with his bat dropping to league average and his center field defense drawing extremely poor marks over the past three years.  Jones vetoed an August trade to the Phillies, as he did not want to move to right field and play part-time.  If playing time is the priority, Jones could look to join the Indians, a contender with plenty of outfield vacancy and previous interest in July.

 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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  • The White Sox, Orioles, Pirates, Marlins, and Diamondbacks did not end up with any free agents from this list.  Certainly they might be in play on some of the more affordable names, at least, with the Chicago organization perhaps also potentially going after some more premium targets.

No top 50 FA for you.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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On 11/1/2018 at 9:44 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think near as much money is going to get spent.

Maybe 65% of what they are projecting?

You never know.   Last year you had 2-3 high spending teams trying to get under the luxury tax threshold for a reset.   With that dynamic gone, there could be a more player-friendly market this offseason.  But we’ll see.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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20 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

ManNY?

Note to Captain Obvious Heyman - when doesn't it "depend on the price?"

It’s an interesting year in that I don’t consider Corbin a reliable top tier pitcher, nor is Happ.    No real needle-movers on the pitching side , so as much as the Yankees might like to focus on pitching, they’re eventually going to conclude that Manny’s a sounder investment.    

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s an interesting year in that I don’t consider Corbin a reliable top tier pitcher, nor is Happ.    No real needle-movers on the pitching side , so as much as the Yankees might like to focus on pitching, they’re eventually going to conclude that Manny’s a sounder investment.    

No firm timetable on Gregorius.  Cashman says, "June-August."  My guess is they'll trade for pitching and make a play for ManNY, and he'll choose them over Philly.

The other really big free agent to watch is Bryce Harper.  Will Boras get the Nats to save face, while at the same time bid against themselves, to keep Harper? Whatever the final verdict on the Machado trade is down the road, it still has to look better than the Nats getting a comp pick for Harper.  Keep an eye on the Cubs pairing Harper with his pal, Anthony Rizzo.   Yet another assumption of mine is those storylines will go into early next year.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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9 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

No firm timetable on Gregorius.  Cashman says, "June-August."  My guess is they'll trade for pitching and make a play for ManNY, and he'll choose them over Philly.

The other really big free agent to watch is Bryce Harper.  Will Boras get the Nats to save face, while at the same time bid against themselves, to keep Harper? Whatever the final verdict on the Machado trade is down the road, it still has to look better than the Nats getting a comp pick for Harper.  Keep an eye on the Cubs pairing Harper with his pal, Anthony Rizzo.   Yet another assumption of mine is those storylines will go into early next year.

 

Manny’s agent Dan Lonzano isn’t as apt to drag things out as Scott Boras is with Harper.   Lonzano’s client Albert Pujols wrapped things up by December 8.   Can’t remember a Boras client who did that.  

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