Tom Tango and "Clutch"

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's a giant difference between an at bat in the bottom of the 9th when you're down 7 runs in a game in early June and an at bat down two runs with 2 RISP in the bottom of the 9th in October.

I'd like to believe that most ballplayers apply the same kind of focus to each at bat.  How many meaningless late inning homers have you seen in your life that take a deficit from 8 runs down to 6?  But to pretend that every at bat is the same, the amount of importance is the same is silly.

On a similar note, I can't imagine a competitor like Michael Jordan placing as much emphasis on a jump shot against the Bullets in December as he would in a game against the Lakers in the Finals.  MJ was the ultimate competitor but I don't he was putting the same emphasis on his game when playing a lowly team vs trying to annihilate anyone in the playoffs.

If a ML hitter had as many at bats in a game as Jordon took jumpers I'd be on board.

Let's go back to the surgeon idea I had.

You are one of the few surgeons in the country that performs TJ surgery on a regular basis.

Assuming no complications you can do the surgery in around three minutes.

On a typical day of surgery you perform between four and six surgeries.

Do you exert yourself less fully if a HS kid is on the table instead of ML player?  Do you just kinda go through the motions because it isn't as important?

 

At the end of the year stats matter and that HR in that game in June looks almost identical to one you hit to win a game in September.

 

[Moose Milligan]

But Tango is asking the right question.  How much is it a skill?  

IMO, not a whole lot.  Jeter hit the same in playoffs and WS as he did in the regular season.  He was just as likely to come up with a big hit in a close game in July as he was in October.  Jeter was a great hitter no matter the season, no matter the time.  Same with Eddie Murray, I believe.  

Gotta find guys that significantly hit better in late and close and the postseason.  Even then, sample size is an issue.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

But Tango is asking the right question.  How much is it a skill?  

IMO, not a whole lot.  Jeter hit the same in playoffs and WS as he did in the regular season.  He was just as likely to come up with a big hit in a close game in July as he was in October.  Jeter was a great hitter no matter the season, no matter the time.  Same with Eddie Murray, I believe.  

Gotta find guys that significantly hit better in late and close and the postseason.  Even then, sample size is an issue.

 

 

Sure, I agree with that.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a ML hitter had as many at bats in a game as Jordon took jumpers I'd be on board.

Let's go back to the surgeon idea I had.

You are one of the few surgeons in the country that performs TJ surgery on a regular basis.

Assuming no complications you can do the surgery in around three minutes.

On a typical day of surgery you perform between four and six surgeries.

Do you exert yourself less fully if a HS kid is on the table instead of ML player?  Do you just kinda go through the motions because it isn't as important?

 

At the end of the year stats matter and that HR in that game in June looks almost identical to one you hit to win a game in September.

 

I'd prefer not to go back to the surgeon idea because it's not a professional athlete comp.  But since you're you and you think your ideas are great, I'll play along  

I would assume that after performing dozens, maybe even hundreds of TJ surgeries, they all start to look the same and there's not a greater degree of difficulty.  I could be wrong but I don't think I am.  It looks imposing to you and me because you and I wouldn't have the first clue, but I'm betting Dr. Andrews could do one in his sleep and that the tendon in a HS kids arm looks pretty close to what Clayton Kershaw's is.  

On a similar note, my dad had a pretty significant back surgery earlier this year, it was one of three that the doctor had that day.  The doctor came out of surgery with a pretty "ho hum, business as usual" attitude.  Everything's fine, went about as smoothly as could go, no hiccups, etc.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd prefer not to go back to the surgeon idea because it's not a professional athlete comp.  But since you're you and you think your ideas are great, I'll play along  

I would assume that after performing dozens, maybe even hundreds of TJ surgeries, they all start to look the same and there's not a greater degree of difficulty.  I could be wrong but I don't think I am.  It looks imposing to you and me because you and I wouldn't have the first clue, but I'm betting Dr. Andrews could do one in his sleep and that the tendon in a HS kids arm looks pretty close to what Clayton Kershaw's is.  

On a similar note, my dad had a pretty significant back surgery earlier this year, it was one of three that the doctor had that day.  The doctor came out of surgery with a pretty "ho hum, business as usual" attitude.  Everything's fine, went about as smoothly as could go, no hiccups, etc.  

I do think it was better than MJ shooting jump shots. 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think it was better than MJ shooting jump shots. 

Well you would. 

My point is that there's no amount of competition involved in a TJ surgery.  

[theocean]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off that's not relevant since we are talking about the opposite, folks that elevate their game when the pressure is higher.

Secondly I would think that folks like that would mostly wash out before they get to the majors.

Baseball is played by humans. Humans respond to stress differently. 

Also, "clutch" doesn't necessarily mean they perform better. If a player hits at a .300 average during the regular season, that doesn't mean they need to hit .400 during the playoffs be clutch. And - a player doesn't necessarily need to have a perfect record either in big situations, Mariano Rivera blew Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, but most would consider him "clutch" because how he performed generally throughout his career. 

I think "clutch" is a subjective quality and the sample sizes of individual players in "clutch" situations is far too small to create a methodology to determine a "clutch" quality. Also, "clutch" isn't a permanent quality either - people are not forever "clutch" or "not clutch." 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well you would. 

My point is that there's no amount of competition involved in a TJ surgery.  

Still a stressful environment.

i liked it since it has a similar period of focus required.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Still a stressful environment.

i liked it since it has a similar period of focus required.

But is it stressful?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, theocean said:

Baseball is played by humans. Humans respond to stress differently. 

Also, "clutch" doesn't necessarily mean they perform better. If a player hits at a .300 average during the regular season, that doesn't mean they need to hit .400 during the playoffs be clutch. And - a player doesn't necessarily need to have a perfect record either in big situations, Mariano Rivera blew Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, but most would consider him "clutch" because how he performed generally throughout his career. 

I think "clutch" is a subjective quality and the sample sizes of individual players in "clutch" situations is far too small to create a methodology to determine a "clutch" quality. Also, "clutch" isn't a permanent quality either - people are not forever "clutch" or "not clutch." 

 

My definition has always been someone that elevates their game.  I accept others might not look at it that way.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

But is it stressful?  

Is an at bat?  Did ManRam ever feel stressed?

Guess it depends on the individual.

 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is an at bat?  Did ManRam ever feel stressed?

Guess it depends on the individual.

 

Did ManRam feel more stressed in the bottom of the 9th in a playoff game as Dr. Andrews does for a HS pitchers arm?

[Frobby]

Remember, in any clutch situation there are two variables: the pitcher and the hitter.   It’s not necessarily about being able to elevate your game, it can be more about your ability to take advantage of your opponent’s nervousness and hence deterioration of performance.    

When I watched Eddie Murray bat in a clutch situation, I always thought to myself, “this pitcher looks scared, and Eddie looks ferocious.”    You felt that in a battle of wills, Eddie wouldn’t crack.  That’s not to say he’d get a hit every time, but he’d make the pitcher beat him, he wouldn’t beat himself.    And if the pitcher made a mistake, woe unto him.    

[weams]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Did ManRam feel more stressed in the bottom of the 9th in a playoff game as Dr. Andrews does for a HS pitchers arm?

Manny Ramirez was never stressed. Except when he kept thinking he was getting pregnant. 

[SurhoffRules]

Whenever the concept of "clutchness" comes up, part of me wonders why it always seem to be about the great players getting greater or turning into chokers. If "clutch" means performing above average when it counts, some of the greatest clutch players of all time are probably utility/PH types who hit .240 in 200 AB during the season who come off the bench in the WS and go 5-7 with 2 dingers.

Anyway, I agree with Tango. How you measure this and how much value you assign to clutchness is a difficult question to unravel.