Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I was trying to have it done before they were born but that didn’t happen.

Right now I stay up all night with them so my wife can sleep between feedings. When they sleep I can work on baseball stuff. One night I ended up holding one or the other the entire night because they were fussy. Last night they slept a lot so I was able to watch some video, write some player notes.

You are a good man!  Congrats! 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

https://2080baseball.com/2018/12/mlb-rule-5-draft-preview-pt-2-1-starting-pitchers/

6 of the 11 pitchers highlighted are in the current working version of my top 30 Rule 5 candidates. I’m almost done, it should be out in a couple of days.

IMHO, Junior Fernandez seems like the top pitcher available, with Akeem Bostick a solid second choice. Again, just a quick take based on those short write-ups.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

IMHO, Junior Fernandez seems like the top pitcher available, with Akeem Bostick a solid second choice. Again, just a quick take based on those short write-ups.

I like Fernandez. Fernandez and Bostick are both highly ranked on my list but I don’t think Fernandez is ever going to be a starter. Setup potential though if command progresses.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I was trying to have it done before they were born but that didn’t happen.

Right now I stay up all night with them so my wife can sleep between feedings. When they sleep I can work on baseball stuff. One night I ended up holding one or the other the entire night because they were fussy. Last night they slept a lot so I was able to watch some video, write some player notes.

Great job Luke! I can only imagine doing it with twins. One at a time was hard enough! We'll look forward to your stuff when you can get it out. Family first!

[weams]

https://2080baseball.com/2018/12/mlb-rule-5-draft-preview-pt-2-1-starting-pitchers/

 

[TheOtherRipken]

This is coming from a place of total guessing, but I think Os are taking Bostick with that pick. 

[Luke-OH]

48 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

This is coming from a place of total guessing, but I think Os are taking Bostick with that pick. 

I like Bostick, he was on my top 15 Rule 5 eligible list last year and has added velocity.

[luismatos4prez]

I like Bostick or Eppler at 1/1.  Both could do Mike Wright/Miguel Castro's 5 ERA longman/ spot starter job with more team control and upside in the future.

I haven't seen any position players that I like with the first pick. Forrest Wall is at least fast and has some versatility but I'd rather go with one of the pitchers. 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I like Bostick or Eppler at 1/1.  Both could do Mike Wright/Miguel Castro's 5 ERA longman/ spot starter job with more team control and upside in the future.

I haven't seen any position players that I like with the first pick. Forrest Wall is at least fast and has some versatility but I'd rather go with one of the pitchers. 

Castro’s been under 4 ERA in each of his two years with the O’s.    Don’t lump him in with Wright.

[sportsfan8703]

On 12/4/2018 at 7:10 PM, Greg Pappas said:

IMHO, Junior Fernandez seems like the top pitcher available, with Akeem Bostick a solid second choice. Again, just a quick take based on those short write-ups.

Fernandez fits the mold of what we look for in the Rule 5. This way he can pitch a little, get hurt, end up on the DL all year. 

[MachoMachadoMan]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Fernandez fits the mold of what we look for in the Rule 5. This way he can pitch a little, get hurt, end up on the DL all year. 

I don't think we have any idea what "we" look for anymore now that we have changed at the top. Fans can have preferences, but it will be very difficult to get into the prediction business with the Elias Administration until we have something to go on other than decisions made by a front office he was part of. 

That said, there appear to be lots of interesting pieces, we have the first pick, and there are no dreams of a pennant chase, so no stress in using a roster spot. 

[interloper]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Castro’s been under 4 ERA in each of his two years with the O’s.    Don’t lump him in with Wright.

I'm endlessly fascinated about Wright's fate under Elias. I fully expect him to continue to get chances inexplicably. 

[luismatos4prez]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Castro’s been under 4 ERA in each of his two years with the O’s.    Don’t lump him in with Wright.

He's managed to outperform his 5+ ERA peripherals nicely. 

He also had 57Ks and 55 BB/HBPs this past year. That's not good. That's good for the lowest K/BB rate of any ML reliever by a wide margin. His peripherals (SIERA, xFIP) were the worst of any ML reliever in 2018 also.

The peripherals don't mean much if a guy keeps outperforming them (like Gonzo did). And Castro's only 23, so he ought to be on the team this year, but I don't think he's good. Can't strike guys out and doesn't have the control needed.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, luismatos4prez said:

He's managed to outperform his 5+ ERA peripherals nicely. 

He also had 57Ks and 55 BB/HBPs this past year. That's not good. That's good for the lowest K/BB rate of any ML reliever by a wide margin. His peripherals (SIERA, xFIP) were the worst of any ML reliever in 2018 also.

The peripherals don't mean much if a guy keeps outperforming them (like Gonzo did). And Castro's only 23, so he ought to be on the team this year, but I don't think he's good. Can't strike guys out and doesn't have the control needed.

These are very fair points.    I think Castro is a lot more calm under fire than Wright, though, and I trust him a lot more despite his low K rate.    

[LookinUp]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

These are very fair points.    I think Castro is a lot more calm under fire than Wright, though, and I trust him a lot more despite his low K rate.    

I'm not going to predict greatness for either Castro or Wright, but they are exactly the types of arms I'm hoping the new regime can get more out of than the old regime. Way back when, Wright looked like he had unhittable stuff out of the bullpen. The O's forced him into a starting role. Different guy ever since, based on my eye test at least. Two years ago Castro was an awesome find. Last year he had some of the worst performances you can imagine. 

I don't know if it was the analytics, poor coaching or flat out players who are not good enough, but with change comes hope.