Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[Number5]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

We should be prepared for the event that Elias goes with utility over upside, like Duquette mostly did. After all, that's what the Rule 5 is all about. So if Elias goes with Martin despite the bat flaws Luke pointed out, he's likely doing so because he can be used right now on the major league club to provide solid defense and good speed. 

What I'm saying is, we shouldn't make any connections between Elias' Rule 5 pick versus his upcoming Rule 4 picks. Not that you are, just throwing it out there.

Good point.  If Elias does indeed look at the Rule 5 Draft with 2019 utility in mind, does that increase the chances of a pick like Wong, who has 2 years at AAA under his belt?

[Rene88]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

2080 just put VanMeter in it’s top infield tier, so I’m not completely alone on an island here.

Jomar Reyes on that list, didn’t even realize he was eligible.

[Rene88]

27 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Good point.  If Elias does indeed look at the Rule 5 Draft with 2019 utility in mind, does that increase the chances of a pick like Wong, who has 2 years at AAA under his belt?

I personally not a fan of that strategy and don’t think they will go utility but Wong or Martin makes a lot of sense if they do.

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Jomar Reyes on that list, didn’t even realize he was eligible.

Yeah, combination of raw power not translating to game yet and lack of defensive flexibility makes him extremely unlikely to be selected.

My personal favorite Nick Vespi is also eligible, but no one is picking a low 90s lefty from A ball even if he was statistically dominant.

[Rene88]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, combination of raw power not translating to game yet and lack of defensive flexibility makes him extremely unlikely to be selected.

My personal favorite Nick Vespi is also eligible, but no one is picking a low 90s lefty from A ball even if he was statistically dominant.

I still think him being stuck at A ball contributed. I would have just moved him to Bowie. Not fair per se, but what motivates one player, may not motivate another. Hope to see him at the Baysox this year if not selected.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

I still think him being stuck at A ball contributed. I would have just moved him to Bowie. Not fair per se, but what motivates one player, may not motivate another. Hope to see him at the Baysox this year if not selected.

Yeah, he handled disappointment poorly and that’s on him. Could the Orioles have put him in a better position to succeed, probably. It goes both ways. He did ramp up the effort in the second half and the results improved so maybe he’s maturing. 

[hoosiers]

I really don't think one can read anything into who we pick.  The player chosen could be the next Ryan Flaherty - super-sub/utility guy on our next competitive team, a player who projects to be a decent/good reliever with limited upside, a lottery pick who may have huge upside (in the bullpen, rotation or everyday position) if the player can upgrade some flaws.  This really wouldn't fit into a FA acquisition category of a guy who might improve his value to be tradeable at the deadline.  

Honestly, among the major services, I think the key guys noted by 2080 would be our main targets.  I would say that Luke's feeling that Martin won't be able to hit major league pitching really diminishes that prospects value to me.  I like the rest of 2080s top hitters just fine with VanMeter and Jackson appearing to be the best shots at being solid everyday guys IMO. 

Following the 2080 analysis of potential starters, I like the potential in the write-ups of Bostick and McWilliams and to a lesser extent Junior Fernandez.  I would have no problem taking a lottery pick like Cody Reed.  Among the relievers, I like Art Warren and Taylor Guilbeau.  

 

[Luke-OH]

50 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I really don't think one can read anything into who we pick.  The player chosen could be the next Ryan Flaherty - super-sub/utility guy on our next competitive team, a player who projects to be a decent/good reliever with limited upside, a lottery pick who may have huge upside (in the bullpen, rotation or everyday position) if the player can upgrade some flaws.  This really wouldn't fit into a FA acquisition category of a guy who might improve his value to be tradeable at the deadline.  

Honestly, among the major services, I think the key guys noted by 2080 would be our main targets.  I would say that Luke's feeling that Martin won't be able to hit major league pitching really diminishes that prospects value to me.  I like the rest of 2080s top hitters just fine with VanMeter and Jackson appearing to be the best shots at being solid everyday guys IMO. 

Following the 2080 analysis of potential starters, I like the potential in the write-ups of Bostick and McWilliams and to a lesser extent Junior Fernandez.  I would have no problem taking a lottery pick like Cody Reed.  Among the relievers, I like Art Warren and Taylor Guilbeau.  

 

McWilliams is a great option, maybe the best, if you are ok with a poor 2019 performance (like sub replacement level). He just doesn’t have the command, consistency, or feel yet. He’s got significant potential though and I think he figures it out eventually, he averages 95mph as a starter so there is definitely upside.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

McWilliams is a great option, maybe the best, if you are ok with a poor 2019 performance (like sub replacement level). He just doesn’t have the command, consistency, or feel yet. He’s got significant potential though and I think he figures it out eventually, he averages 95mph as a starter so there is definitely upside.

After 2018 we are used to sub replacement level.

[hoosiers]

14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

McWilliams is a great option, maybe the best, if you are ok with a poor 2019 performance (like sub replacement level). He just doesn’t have the command, consistency, or feel yet. He’s got significant potential though and I think he figures it out eventually, he averages 95mph as a starter so there is definitely upside.

2019 is a throwaway so I have no issue with a roster spot contributing total mediocrity at the major league level.  A benefit of being a Rule V guy, which partially offsets the likely lack of IP or consistently starting every five days, is exposure to the major league pitching staff and a major league catcher.  If McWilliams is a guy who would essentially be the equivalent of a top 15 prospect (though obviously no longer having prospect status) entering 2020, that would be a strong acquisition for me.  McWilliams could start in Bowie in 2020 and move up depending on if he succeeds or not.

My preferred pick for our 1/1 Rule V pick - McWilliams!

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

2019 is a throwaway so I have no issue with a roster spot contributing total mediocrity at the major league level.  A benefit of being a Rule V guy, which partially offsets the likely lack of IP or consistently starting every five days, is exposure to the major league pitching staff and a major league catcher.  If McWilliams is a guy who would essentially be the equivalent of a top 15 prospect (though obviously no longer having prospect status) entering 2020, that would be a strong acquisition for me.  McWilliams could start in Bowie in 2020 and move up depending on if he succeeds or not.

My preferred pick for our 1/1 Rule V pick - McWilliams!

He’s wouldn’t be my #1 but if my preference list was for the Orioles and not just a general preference list, he’d be higher than where I ranked him.

[Ohfan67]

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

After 2018 we are used to sub replacement level.

Definitely. There’s subreplacement and then below average Oriole. 

[atomic]

Perhaps we draft and trade a player.  As we have the top spot we might get some decent offers for the pick. 

[weams]

 

[Orange in my Veins]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Allie isn’t particularly intriguing to me, I just can’t see him putting it together at this point.

Beras I discussed a few posts back, but basically I like the arm and the fastball, it’s electric, but the lack of a workable offspeed pitch hurts his chances of being able to handle the jump.

Ahh yeah probably so. I just always had a thing for the wild guys with their talent