Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[POR]

How Ben Cherington handled the 2013 Red Sox has zero to do with how he would handle the Orioles. The Orioles were 47-115.  They are rebuilding.   The Red Sox in 2012 underachieved greatly under Bobby Valentine and just made tweaks to compete in 2013.

Carlos Asauje, Allen Coedoba, Javy Guerra, Alex Dickerson, Robbie Erlin, Brett Kennedy, Walter Lockett, Eric Lauer, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Perdomo may be impacted by the Padres tight 40 man roster.  The idea that Chris Paddack would be available because the Padres roster is full is silly.

 

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I was prepared for a few similar reactions, and it's fair. We are talking mainly about 40 grade prospects that are near ready or 45s who are being pushed into action a year or two too soon. There are good MLB contributors available every year though, I mean how much different is it than draft picks outside the top 6-8 rounds for a team that's not competitive. Most late round draft picks don't turn into anything, yet every year a bunch get 125K bonuses because the payoff from a small fraction providing MLB value is well worth the risk.

It's more fun if you think of it as a lottery ticket. Odubel Herrera has produced north of 75 million in surplus value for the Philles. That's a big payoff. Talent is out there, Franmil Reyes was available in 2017, didn't get picked, and hit .280/.340/.498 with 16HRs over 87 MLB games. Brad Keller got picked and pitched better than Kevin Gausman for the Royals. 

But I get it, it can be frustrating. 

It's not the draft picks itself that bother me, it's the fear that we have to find a roster spot for these guys or....God forbid, we give them back.  It's the hand wringing and pearl clutching about making roster spots for these guys or the giant fear of giving them back.

I agree there's value out there, not surprisingly the Orioles can never find it.  

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

But do you feel strongly about it?

I had to tone it down a little bit, not gonna lie.

[Luke-OH]

56 minutes ago, POR said:

How Ben Cherington handled the 2013 Red Sox has zero to do with how he would handle the Orioles. The Orioles were 47-115.  They are rebuilding.   The Red Sox in 2012 underachieved greatly under Bobby Valentine and just made tweaks to compete in 2013.

Carlos Asauje, Allen Coedoba, Javy Guerra, Alex Dickerson, Robbie Erlin, Brett Kennedy, Walter Lockett, Eric Lauer, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Perdomo may be impacted by the Padres tight 40 man roster.  The idea that Chris Paddack would be available because the Padres roster is full is silly.

 

Yeah, Paddock is the number one guy they are going to protect.

[bpilktree67]

The list of rule 5 guys is not great but there has been a few nuggets in their.  The older system had a few more top guys like Bonill, Johan Santana, Jose Bautista, Shane Victorina all were rule 5 picks.

The list of current guys in the new system, include Josh Hamilton, R.A. Dickey, Darren O'day, Ender Incarte,  Obudebel Herrera, Jokiam Soria, Hector Rendon, Matt Bowman, Joe Biagini, and Brad Keller.  

[atomic]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Of course, but if that's why you are signing the players, there are plenty of college seniors you can sign for 10k, yet the Orioles gave 12 players in the 10th round or later 125K. 

Stink up the major league roster is an interesting thing to say regarding a roster like the one the Orioles threw out there in 2018. Yeah, if you are trying to complete, it's not something a team should do, but I guarentee you there are multiple Mike Wright or John Andreoli upgrades available every year. The O's paid 8M for Cashner with a guaranteed second year. Brad Keller is controllable for 6 years and is making the league minimum next year and was better than any of the Orioles SP in 2018. He was acquired for 100K. You don't have to like it, but it's not pointless for a rebuilding team. 

I don't think you need to have a 30 win team for a season to be rebuilding.  If you sign a bunch of these Rule 5 guys and don't improve the roster that is where you are headed.  I am not sure what the point of building the worst team in major league history is.  Or having a team of lower quality than AAA even.  

Also Andreoli is already gone and I hope Mike Wright is gone as well.  There are minor league free agents and low salary major league free agents that could improve the club to be at least in the mid 50 win level.  

The only Rule 5 guy who helped the big league team at all was Flaherty and he was replacement level and could easily have been traded for next to nothing.  The rest of the guys are mostly players who stunk up the roster for a year. Went down to the minors the next year and then disappeared from everyone's mind.   Well TJ McFarland was with the team several years being worse than replacement level. 

[bpilktree67]

On 11/11/2018 at 2:40 AM, Luke-OH said:

I had assumed that he would be protected, I have 3 Padres on my list right now, not including Espinoza and Paddock who I assumed were locks to get protected, but I'd certainly add them if they weren't protected. 

The Rays and the Astros are the teams with the most guys on my list currently.

 

Elias singing would make you think that a guy from the Astros roster would be a guy we look at for sure.  He and sig should know that farm better then anyone so i think looking at someone from their system would make lot of sense now imo.

 

[Just Regular]

Minor League Ball ran a Padres overview as they are one of the more crunched teams after signing all of Latin America a few years back.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/18/18102002/padres-rule-5-draft-deadline-san-diego-mlb

As Austin Allen has been Pipped by Mejia and we are no great shakes at catcher, he might be a fit, although it feels more like a high floor, low ceiling profile.

It will be more interesting to see if they package some stuff to pay high for Paxton, Syndergaard or some Indian to relieve the pressure.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Orioles have a little less than 24 hours now to protect anyone else from the Rule 5.

[bobmc]

"Four players ranked in the Nats top 30 prospects by MLB.com were eligible for the Rule 5 draft yet remained unprotected: outfielders Telmito Agustin and Jose Marmolejos, corner infielder Drew Ward and pitcher Tomas Alastre. Other intriguing players that remain unprotected include pitcher Luis Reyes, whom the Nationals sent to the Arizona Fall League this season, catcher Taylor Gushue and pitchers Dakota Bacus, Tyler Mapes and Joan Baez."  (more details below)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/11/19/with-rule-deadline-looming-which-prospects-will-nationals-protect/?utm_term=.c0797cd15dd7

[panick]

On 11/14/2018 at 12:25 PM, bpilktree67 said:

Elias singing would make you think that a guy from the Astros roster would be a guy we look at for sure.  He and sig should know that farm better then anyone so i think looking at someone from their system would make lot of sense now imo.

 

He sings, too?

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, panick said:

He sings, too?

Call and Answer

Barenaked Ladies

 

Barelaked Nadies

Barenaked Ladies

2002

promise you I'll be the first to crucify you
Now it's time to prove that you've come back here to rebuild
Rebuild
Rebuild
Rebuild
Rebuild
Rebuild

[Roll Tide]

The Padres will have trouble protecting all of their prospects.

They will almost certainly protect top 100 players Paddock and Espinoza. The latter had Tommy John so there is a slight chance they could roll the dice.

 

Allen is more than likely will be available 

No. 25. Austin Allen, C

Further exemplifying how deep the Padres farm system is, Allen hit .270 with an .857 OPS while belting 22 home runs in 119 Double-A games. And he’s the No. 25 prospect in the system. The 24-year-old catcher may have trouble sticking behind the plate long-term, however, he’ll likely be taken if left unprotected. There are several teams that would be happy to have his bat on their 25-man roster.

Also 

No. 28. Edward Olivares, OF

This is where the intrigue begins. Assuming that the three previous names are protected, we’re looking at four roster spots that would need to be vacated in order to keep Olivares from being selected. He’s yet to play above the High-A level, but after acquiring him on January 6 it’s unlikely that the club would risk losing him after he posted 47 XBH, 21 stolen bases, and in 129 games

No. 29. Pedro Avila, RHP

I’m not sold on Avila sticking with a big-league club for the 2019 season. With less-than-stellar production in 2018, a fastball that is merely average, and questions over the 21-year-olds ability at the Double-A level, it’s not likely that another team would take Avila if he were left unprotected.

[Orioles0615]

On 11/12/2018 at 9:53 PM, Moose Milligan said:

I think the Rule 5 draft might be the single most thing I hate about the offseason.  Seeing what castoff the Orioles pick up and then having to read post after post about OMG WE GOTTA MAKE ROOM FOR THIS GUY THAT WE KNOW WON'T WORK OUT ON THE ROSTER OR ELSE WE SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES OF GIVING HIM BACK TO HIS ORIGINAL TEAM makes me want to punch myself in the nuts.

The problem was they used that mindset when they were "going for it" Now they are rebuilding, There is literally no player that 1 rule 5 player would block. But I get he frustration, I felt the same with the OMG this player is out of options and how DD and Buck didn't want to risk "losing" that player via waivers when said player wasn't very good to begin with.. 

[interloper]

I really thought Santander was going to be the next Luke Scott, except right handed. Pretty disappointed with his season, but I'm glad we still have him for the rebuild. I think his best bet is being the next Oscar Salazar: a sort of forgotten dude who comes up late in his career to whop a few well-timed dingers and promptly fades into obscurity.