Update: Elias brings in Sig Mejdal:

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The thing I find interesting about Sig is that he said in an interview that the most important thing he learned from his time in baseball (I'm paraphrasing) was that you couldn't just collect, process, and analyze data. You had to communicate your results in a way that connected with baseball players and the coaches who teach those players. Without that communication, it's virtually useless. 

Now it's one thing to say that, it's another to live it. In order to further his understanding of baseball and the players he was trying to reach, he rode the bus in the low minors as a bench coach in order to practice being on the front lines of presenting data to young players.

That's pretty cool.

That experience should serve us well.  

[theocean]

49 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The thing I find interesting about Sig is that he said in an interview that the most important thing he learned from his time in baseball (I'm paraphrasing) was that you couldn't just collect, process, and analyze data. You had to communicate your results in a way that connected with baseball players and the coaches who teach those players. Without that communication, it's virtually useless. 

Now it's one thing to say that, it's another to live it. In order to further his understanding of baseball and the players he was trying to reach, he rode the bus in the low minors as a bench coach in order to practice being on the front lines of presenting data to young players.

That's pretty cool.

That's really great to hear. I agree with you. Analytics aren't worth much if the players on the field can't implement the benefit they provide. I'm also glad to hear that they focused on presenting this information to players even in the low minors - not just players that have reached the major league level.

[Satyr3206]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I'm sure he can. All 60 million of it. 

I doubt that would be his budget for the Baseball Operations side. That would mean the Team will never win again.

[rjslomo]

11 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Sam Miller's book Fantasyland has a good amount on Mejdal.  I read it many years ago and IIRC Mejdal's gateway into baseball analysis was this author enlisting him to assist in his attempt as a novice to win either Tout Wars or LABR.

I'm pretty sure there's an anecdote that at the auction their worst screw-up was overbidding for Sidney Ponson.

I read the book, too. Sig was a great part of that book. Sam Miller was a baseball writer for the Wall Street Journal who wanted to get into Tout Wars and try to win as a novice to all the fantasy experts. Although there is no prize, he spent thousands trying to win. First, he hired another guy (blanking on his name) who knows baseball and was more of the emotional side of the arguments for getting players and then brought aboard Sig who was hanging out at the Winter Meetings handing out his resume to anyone on any team to get a spot working for a baseball team in analytics. Everything could be broken down into numbers and he had zero patience for any emotional attachments. It reminds you of some sort of a buddy movie where this guy didn't take any s**t from Miller and had no problem telling him how stupid some of his decisions were. Or, it was like the angel and devil on Miler's shoulders.

Miller was doing well going into August or maybe close to September before it all went terribly wrong and he finished something like 7th. If you read the book, you'll really like Sig. Note - I believe Miller won Tout Wars the next year.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I doubt that would be his budget for the Baseball Operations side. That would mean the Team will never win again.

Budgets change as teams get closer. But I doubt it will even be that much to start. 

[now]

On 11/16/2018 at 5:47 PM, rjslomo said:

Everything could be broken down into numbers and he had zero patience for any emotional attachments.

...

If you read the book, you'll really like Sig. 

Curious what you liked about Sig... since from the above he sounds rather inflexible (though what I've read since makes him sound more well rounded). Could you elaborate?

[Moose Milligan]

They gonna sign this dude or not?

[raypetty]

56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They gonna sign this dude or not?

Curious to find out as well but I guess we have to wait until Monday at his press conference.  Maybe beyond.  

[mdbdotcom]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

They gonna sign this dude or not?

What are the odds?

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

What are the odds?

I'd say pretty good.  I hope, at least. 

[rjslomo]

10 hours ago, now said:

Curious what you liked about Sig... since from the above he sounds rather inflexible (though what I've read since makes him sound more well rounded). Could you elaborate?

He's definitely rounded out. Remember, the timing of this book was when he was not working in baseball but was exclusively a numbers geek that thought he had everything he needed based on his computations. At the time, he was inflexible but I'm sure he realized two years later when he got a job with the Cards that he needed to become more flexible. For the narrative of the story, it works great.

 

This is coming from a guy that is in my mid-40's, played college ball and am still not very up to date on all the advanced stats. I'm not old school, however, but realize you need a good mix of old school/new school with a lean toward new school.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, rjslomo said:

He's definitely rounded out. Remember, the timing of this book was when he was not working in baseball but was exclusively a numbers geek that thought he had everything he needed based on his computations. At the time, he was inflexible but I'm sure he realized two years later when he got a job with the Cards that he needed to become more flexible. For the narrative of the story, it works great.

 

This is coming from a guy that is in my mid-40's, played college ball and am still not very up to date on all the advanced stats. I'm not old school, however, but realize you need a good mix of old school/new school with a lean toward new school.

I think the inflexibility comes in the trusting the odds. So you create a model and if it tells you to do something, you do it, whether or not your emotions or gut is telling you differently. Now the model and the inputs to the model can always be improved, but the results need to be trusted. He compares it to hitting on 16 in blackjack when the dealer is showing a certain range of cards, it doesn't always feel like the right thing to do and it won't always lead to you winning that particular hand, but over the long haul, it gives you the highest chance of winning.

It's the same thing with his draft model that he put together. Obviously, the constituent data that the model relies on isn't public, but it appears to consist of stats for college players, multiple scouting report grades, EV, Spin rate, and velocity data, along with some mechanical criteria. That model will say who should be drafted with the idea that each pick might not work out, but in the long run it gives you a better chance for success. I'm not sure how closely the Astros relied on this model, but I know it existed. 

[now]

20 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think the inflexibility comes in the trusting the odds. So you create a model and if it tells you to do something, you do it, whether or not your emotions or gut is telling you differently. Now the model and the inputs to the model can always be improved, but the results need to be trusted. He compares it to hitting on 16 in blackjack when the dealer is showing a certain range of cards, it doesn't always feel like the right thing to do and it won't always lead to you winning that particular hand, but over the long haul, it gives you the highest chance of winning.

It's the same thing with his draft model that he put together. Obviously, the constituent data that the model relies on isn't public, but it appears to consist of stats for college players, multiple scouting report grades, EV, Spin rate, and velocity data, along with some mechanical criteria. That model will say who should be drafted with the idea that each pick might not work out, but in the long run it gives you a better chance for success. I'm not sure how closely the Astros relied on this model, but I know it existed. 

Right, and what I find most intriguing is his approach of putting numbers for the "scouting intangibles" into the equation... Based on data from performance compared to early assessments.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, now said:

Right, and what I find most intriguing is his approach of putting numbers for the "scouting intangibles" into the equation... Based on data from performance compared to early assessments.

This is just speculation, but that might be the reason Elias and Mejdal decided to leave Houston. Apparently Houston has cut it's scouting staff. Going off public interviews/statements, it seems like both Elias and Mejdal are of the mindset that you can produce a better result with a system that includes the input of a robust group of scouts. 

[weams]

On 11/16/2018 at 8:12 PM, Satyr3206 said:

I doubt that would be his budget for the Baseball Operations side. That would mean the Team will never win again.

How much did the Astros spend year two?