How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, joelala said:

Exactly.  This year will go a long way toward telling us just how long and dark this rebuild will be.  I don't really care at all about wins and losses, and am only focused on how the young players in the organization progress under new tutelage.

But for the record, I'll say 58 wins.

The scariest part to me is that we might be really bad for a couple of years, causing ownership to adopt a new strategy. I really hope they let Elias et al see this through. 

[jrobb21613]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The scariest part to me is that we might be really bad for a couple of years, causing ownership to adopt a new strategy. I really hope they let Elias et al see this through. 

Hopefully ownership will trust the process as they did in Houston.

[jabba72]

 

2 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Hopefully ownership will trust the process as they did in Houston.

 Tanking so they can get the #1 pick every year? Im not sure I have the stomach for it. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, jabba72 said:

 

 Tanking so they can get the #1 pick every year? Im not sure I have the stomach for it. 

I don't know if it's outright tanking.  I don't think Elias is setting Hyde up with a devoid roster intentionally.  I think he's properly constructing a franchise and a team as best as he sees fit and if that means taking another 100 loss season on the head then so be it.  

 

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 

 Tanking so they can get the #1 pick every year? Im not sure I have the stomach for it. 

You should purchase a big bottle of Pepsi Bismol. You are going to need it. If the Orioles don't finish in the bottom three in 2019, then Elias screwed up. The worst case scenario would be that the Orioles win 67 or 68 games and finish 22nd or similar. Those "extra" wins may make some fans feel a little less nauseous, but they would take the Orioles out of the best draft slots. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You should purchase a big bottle of Pepsi Bismol. You are going to need it. If the Orioles don't finish in the bottom three in 2019, then Elias screwed up. The worst case scenario would be that the Orioles win 67 or 68 games and finish 22nd or similar. Those "extra" wins may make some fans feel a little less nauseous, but they would take the Orioles out of the best draft slots. 

I wouldn't say that.

I think losing is a byproduct of the start of the process, not the goal.

And I don't think we have to worry about it either.

[jabba72]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know if it's outright tanking.  I don't think Elias is setting Hyde up with a devoid roster intentionally.  I think he's properly constructing a franchise and a team as best as he sees fit and if that means taking another 100 loss season on the head then so be it.  

 

I would believe you if they hadn't been rolled over with the legs up position all offseason. When do they sign some Free Agents? 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, jabba72 said:

I would believe you if they hadn't been rolled over with the legs up position all offseason. When do they sign some Free Agents? 

Well show me what free agents would really get this team moving from the 47 win disaster last year to a 62 win crap-fest this year?  I mean, is that what you really want?  Sure, sign some FAs but they'll still be a terrible team.  

 

[Can_of_corn]

35 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I would believe you if they hadn't been rolled over with the legs up position all offseason. When do they sign some Free Agents? 

I want as many slots on the 25 man roster open for young players as possible.

[foxfield]

 

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

It is a serious kick in the nuts, to come to grips with the reality that in the perfect case, where almost everything goes right......

 

 

 

Chris Davis is replacement level.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, foxfield said:

 

It is a serious kick in the nuts, to come to grips with the reality that in the perfect case, where almost everything goes right......

 

 

 

Chris Davis is replacement level.

He could hit 2 bombs on opening day and miss the rest of the season with an injury.  That would be worth at least .1 WAR right?

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I want as many slot on the 25 man roster open for young players as possible.

From our minor leagues? Why start the service clock? 

[jabba72]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well show me what free agents would really get this team moving from the 47 win disaster last year to a 62 win crap-fest this year?  I mean, is that what you really want?  Sure, sign some FAs but they'll still be a terrible team.  

 

I honestly haven't paid much attention to whats out there to even know. Just figure the markets bad enough that even the O's should be in play for something decent. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

From our minor leagues? Why start the service clock? 

Why worry about service clocks? 

I want Elias to be free to make whatever moves he wants.

[jabba72]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Why worry about service clocks? 

I want Elias to be free to make whatever moves he wants.

It will be interesting to see what he does with the roster.