How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

[drjohnnyfeva]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Better than last year?

Better than last year.  I think 60plus is a reasonable - yet lethargic expectation.  If we win more than that, we'll be benefiting in the trade market.

[survivedc]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

And we should all be ticked about how that pushed them ninth or tenth pick or whatever. 

What if those wins come on the backs of surprising performances by youngsters? As has been stated I dont think losing should be the goal

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

That’s the post I was looking for. Yes, if things break at our 80-90% ceiling, we can flirt with .500 baseball and play meaningful games in September. 

If we get to 60-70% of our ceiling, which is how I think it plays out, we’ll approach 70. I just want to see a team that plays hard and is a pain in the ass to the MFY and Sox. 

[weams]

It depends if the let Chris Davis stay. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

31 minutes ago, weams said:

It depends if the let Chris Davis stay. 

Davis can stay in Baltimore...

During the away games.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Davis can stay in Baltimore...

During the away games.

I believe if he were sent packing to Orioles might reach 65 wins. 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, survivedc said:

What if those wins come on the backs of surprising performances by youngsters? As has been stated I dont think losing should be the goal

I hope we have surprisingly good play by young players. But then I would “want to take a look” at the worst possible starter for a few games  to suppress wins. The team needs another group with Manny, Wieters, etc. Those guys were high draft picks. Picking tenth is a lot different than picking top two or three. 70 wins are meaningless. 60 wins can get you a much better pick. You can have good play by young players and enjoy those performances, but don’t blow the draft pick by just being bad. Be really bad and get the pick. 

 

But it I don’t think I have anything to worry about. The 2019 Orioles are going to stink it up. 

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I believe if he were sent packing to Orioles might reach 65 wins. 

If Davis puts up a .540 OPS in April and keeps playing, we'll know what the real goal is. Elias might veiw davis as his secret weapon in getting higher picks. You never know. I personally would rather they dump Davis and play Mancini/Trumbo at 1B. 

[El Gordo]

We're gonna make the playoffs!!!!

[jrobb21613]

4 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I hope we have surprisingly good play by young players. But then I would “want to take a look” at the worst possible starter for a few games  to suppress wins. The team needs another group with Manny, Wieters, etc. Those guys were high draft picks. Picking tenth is a lot different than picking top two or three. 70 wins are meaningless. 60 wins can get you a much better pick. You can have good play by young players and enjoy those performances, but don’t blow the draft pick by just being bad. Be really bad and get the pick. 

 

But it I don’t think I have anything to worry about. The 2019 Orioles are going to stink it up. 

Below is according to Mlb.cm a list of the top player in baseball at every position along with where they were drafted.

Relieve pitcher: Craig Kimbrel-3rd rd.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor-1st rd. 8th

1st baseman : Paul Goldschmidt- 8th rd.

Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer-1st rd. 11th

Left fielder: J.D. Martinez- 20th rd.

Center fielder: Mike Trout-1st rd. 25th

Right Fielder: Aaron Judge- 1st rd. 32nd

Catcher: Buster Posey-1st rd 5th

2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve-International. Note-as a prospect the highest he was rated was as the Astros 28th best.

3rd baseman: Jose Ramirez-International

As you’ll see above you don’t have to lose a lot of games in order to draft at the top of the draft to get great players. Out of the above only one Buster Posey was drafted in the top 5 and that was 5th overall and only 5 out of 10 were 1st rd picks. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-network-2019-best-players-at-each-position/c-264680678

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FlipTheBird]

13 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Below is according to Mlb.cm a lost of the top player in baseball at every position along with where they were drafted

Relieve pitcher: Craig Kimbrel-3rd rd.

Short stop: Francisco Lindor-1st rd. 8th

1st baseman : Paul Goldschmidt- 8th rd.

Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer-1st rd. 11th

Left fielder: J.D. Martinez- 20th rd.

Center fielder: Mike Trout-1st rd. 25th

Right Fielder: Aaron Judge- 1st rd. 32nd

Catcher: Buster Posey-1st rd 5th

2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve-International. Note-as a prospect the highest he was rated was as the Astros 28th best.

3rd baseman: Jose Ramirez-International

As you’ll see above you don’t have to lose a lot of games in order to draft at the top of the draft to get great players. Out of the above only one Buster Posey was drafted in the top 5 and that was 5th overall and only 5 out of 10 were 1st rd picks. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-network-2019-best-players-at-each-position/c-264680678

 

 

 

 

 

 

Certainly not. Having earlier picks helps your chances of winning the lottery though, so to speak. That’s what those guys were when they were in their late teens and early 20s. It’s no secret that the Orioles haven’t done a lot to help themselves in the amateur draft the last 20 years, but if you’re going to stink, better to stink enough to get low slots and better your odds of picking a winner.

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

My hope is that the above players, plus a few others, produce “good” enough so we can have Selloff 2.0 and acquire assets that will be on the 2021 team. 

I’m going to root for us every game, but I’d be happy with the 1st pick in 2020 draft, and a bunch of assets for 2021 and beyond. 

58-104 sounds about right to me. 

[wildcard]

15 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

The O's would have to be within 5 games of the wildcard race to not have a sell off at the trade deadline.  And once the sell off happens the O's have no chance of being competitive   The goal is not to get to .500.  Its to build a World Championship team.   

So I hope what you described happens and the O's get a lot for the overachievers at the deadline.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Below is according to Mlb.cm a list of the top player in baseball at every position along with where they were drafted.

Relieve pitcher: Craig Kimbrel-3rd rd.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor-1st rd. 8th

1st baseman : Paul Goldschmidt- 8th rd.

Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer-1st rd. 11th

Left fielder: J.D. Martinez- 20th rd.

Center fielder: Mike Trout-1st rd. 25th

Right Fielder: Aaron Judge- 1st rd. 32nd

Catcher: Buster Posey-1st rd 5th

2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve-International. Note-as a prospect the highest he was rated was as the Astros 28th best.

3rd baseman: Jose Ramirez-International

As you’ll see above you don’t have to lose a lot of games in order to draft at the top of the draft to get great players. Out of the above only one Buster Posey was drafted in the top 5 and that was 5th overall and only 5 out of 10 were 1st rd picks. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-network-2019-best-players-at-each-position/c-264680678

If you look at the averages over a long period of time and smooth the curve out it's a nice decaying curve asymptotically approaching zero, and under an expected six-year value of one win by maybe the third round, with each group of five picks being more valuable than the five prior.

You're always better off picking higher, although that's no guarantee.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The O's would have to be within 5 games of the wildcard race to not have a sell off at the trade deadline.  And once the sell off happens the O's have no chance of being competitive   The goal is not to get to .500.  Its to build a World Championship team.   

So I hope what you described happens and the O's get a lot for the overachievers at the deadline.

If the O's are around five games back of the 2nd wildcard in late July and they trade and significant future value for present value we'll know Elias was the wrong man for the job.