2080Baseball: Org Review

[weams]

https://2080baseball.com/2019/02/2019-organizational-review-baltimore-orioles/

[Frobby]

Two things stuck out:

1.   They describe Diaz as having a “super aggressive approach.”   I find that odd given his high walk rate.   

2.    They are more optimistic about Mountcastle’s arm and chances of sticking at 3B than just about any other evaluator, saying only that his arm “will likely always be a 45-at-best tool, so it’s not a lock he stays at 3B even though he’s getting better there.”    That counts as optimism compared to most other sources.    

I also found it interesting that while they like Grayson Rodriguez, they describe his risk as “extreme.”

[panick]

Thanks for posting this, Weams. While there don't appear to be any potential All-Stars and there a lot of "ifs" for some players, it makes me feel like there are more potentially competent players in the O's system than I previously thought.

Maybe we can start getting the All-Stars in the next two years in the drafts and international signings.

[AceKing]

I think by giving these guys some “secret sauce” and some new player development tools and guidelines, they may all rise a few notches collectively.

 

A rising tide lifts all boats, so to speak.

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, panick said:

Thanks for posting this, Weams. While there don't appear to be any potential All-Stars and there a lot of "ifs" for some players, it makes me feel like there are more potentially competent players in the O's system than I previously thought.

Maybe we can start getting the All-Stars in the next two years in the drafts and international signings.

I thought the same thing, but then figured all orgs have a lot of ifs. I'm not sure our ifs are any different or better.

Every time I read this type of list, from the OH (or 2080, BA, BP, whatever), I get optimistic. The cupboard isn't bare. You can see that we have an org with players who have some tools to work with, age on their side, etc. What we rarely see is a few of those ifs truly turn into studs. I could see that happen with our starting pitching prospects (Knight, Hanifee, Kremer, Gray Rod, D Hall, Akin, etc), some of the younger SS prospects and outfielders. That will be the measuring stick for Elias, as much as anything else, because in year's past the odds would be way against most of those guys ever rising to the level of an above average major leaguer.

 

[wildcard]

Here is the way I like to look at these ranking from different publications.

One year ago Austin Hays was ranked by Baseball America as the 21st prospect in all of baseball.  He was coming off  a season where he had 32 homer, 95 RBI  and split of 329/365/593/958.  He finished that season at AA.   He was rated with a 60 arm, 55 power and 55 as a fielder.  That sure sounds like a impact player to me.

He had injuries last year but has he lost any of that potential?  Not that I have heard.   So now he is not even in the top 100 by most of the rater.    I think he could easily repeat what he did in 2017 and be a impact prospect in the majors this year or next.   

So anyone that listed on the O's prospect list as high or higher than  Hays  could also be impact players IMO.   The includes Yusneil Diaz,  DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Mountcastle and may according Tony's ranks  Dean Kremer.   JMO.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He had injuries last year but has he lost any of that potential?  Not that I have heard.   So now he is not even in the top 100 by most of the rater.    I think he could easily repeat what he did in 2017 and be a impact prospect in the majors this year or next.   

So anyone that listed on the O's prospect list as high or higher than  Hays  could also be impact players IMO.   The includes Yusneil Diaz,  DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Mountcastle and may according Tony's ranks  Dean Kremer.   JMO.

I'm not sure your logic adds up, exactly. Hays could return to form, but the flaws seen in his game last year are generally going to be interpreted as better, more recent, information as opposed to an anomaly to be written off to injury. 

Additionally, those players being ranked higher than Hays now would not necessarily be ranked higher than the 2017 version of Hays. To be clear, they could all be impact players if things work out, but that doesn't mean they all project as 55-60 FV players just because they're rated higher than Hays. 

[wildcard]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure your logic adds up, exactly. Hays could return to form, but the flaws seen in his game last year are generally going to be interpreted as better, more recent, information as opposed to an anomaly to be written off to injury. 

Additionally, those players being ranked higher than Hays now would not necessarily be ranked higher than the 2017 version of Hays. To be clear, they could all be impact players if things work out, but that doesn't mean they all project as 55-60 FV players just because they're rated higher than Hays. 

What flaw seen in Hays game last year?

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What flaw seen in Hays game last year?

Plate discipline. More likely to be exposed against higher level pitching. His B.A./O.B.P. delta was .018 last year. 

2080 referred to it as an "over aggressive approach." 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Plate discipline. More likely to be exposed against higher level pitching. His B.A./O.B.P. delta was .018 last year. 

2080 referred to it as an "over aggressive approach." 

That aggressiveness is what got him to be the #21 prospect by BA and had him performing great at AA before the shoulder and ankle injuries.   If those injuries haven't done permanent damage to his abilities he  should be the same player now that he is recovered from them.

To speak about the other players,   most rater use Future Value or ceiling as their rating criteria.   If Hays didn't lose anything for the injuries he still has the ceiling he had in the 2017-18 off season that got him the #21 ranking.    So if those raters are putting 4 or 5 player ahead of him they are said that those player's Future Value is higher than Hays.   That makes them impact prospects also IMO.

[LookinUp]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That aggressiveness is what got him to be the #21 prospect by BA and had him performing great at AA before the shoulder and ankle injuries.   If those injuries haven't done permanent damage to his abilities he  should be the same player now that he is recovered from them.

To speak about the other players,   most rater use Future Value or ceiling as their rating criteria.   If Hays didn't lose anything for the injuries he still has the ceiling he had in the 2017-18 off season that got him the #21 ranking.    So if those raters are putting 4 or 5 player ahead of him they are said that those player's Future Value is higher than Hays.   That makes them impact prospects also IMO.

I don't think the Adam Jones/Jonathan Schoop plate approach profiles very well in scouting circles. You have to have really good bat to ball ability and/or above average power. Many have done it. Ichiro comes to mind, but Hays hit .273 in minor league ball, not .333. Taken together, there's good reason to see why he dropped so far in prospect rankings. You have to rake to maintain a lofty prospect status with that approach.

I'll defer to Tony or Luke about how they use FV, but I don't think they use it as a ceiling. I think it's a projection.

 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That aggressiveness is what got him to be the #21 prospect by BA and had him performing great at AA before the shoulder and ankle injuries.   If those injuries haven't done permanent damage to his abilities he  should be the same player now that he is recovered from them.

To speak about the other players,   most rater use Future Value or ceiling as their rating criteria.   If Hays didn't lose anything for the injuries he still has the ceiling he had in the 2017-18 off season that got him the #21 ranking.    So if those raters are putting 4 or 5 player ahead of him they are said that those player's Future Value is higher than Hays.   That makes them impact prospects also IMO.

Hays’ poor performance in the majors in 2017 worries me more than his lackluster, injury plagued 2018.    He is a potential impact player, but there’s significant risk involved.  

[Ohfan67]

52 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Plate discipline. More likely to be exposed against higher level pitching. His B.A./O.B.P. delta was .018 last year. 

2080 referred to it as an "over aggressive approach." 

Hays had a bad year last year, but the difference in his BA and OBP was .031, not .018. Am I missing a secret to this calculation? .031 is definitely not great, but it's better than .018. Not arguing that Hays is a good OB player (his career minor league difference is .037), just curious as to the source of that difference.  

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Hays had a bad year last year, but the difference in his BA and OBP was .031, not .018. Am I missing a secret to this calculation? .031 is definitely not great, but it's better than .018. Not arguing that Hays is a good OB player (his career minor league difference is .037), just curious as to the source of that difference.  

I read the 2080 site wrong. It was after his return to Bowie. 

Quote

He slashed .273/.291/.535 upon returning to Bowie in early August, showing lots of power but the same over-aggressive approach versus spin that has been his Achilles heel in years past. 

 

 

[LookinUp]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That aggressiveness is what got him to be the #21 prospect by BA and had him performing great at AA before the shoulder and ankle injuries.   If those injuries haven't done permanent damage to his abilities he  should be the same player now that he is recovered from them.

 

30 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think the Adam Jones/Jonathan Schoop plate approach profiles very well in scouting circles. You have to have really good bat to ball ability and/or above average power. Many have done it. Ichiro comes to mind, but Hays hit .273 in minor league ball, not .333. Taken together, there's good reason to see why he dropped so far in prospect rankings. You have to rake to maintain a lofty prospect status with that approach.

To support your overall perspective, wildcard, Hays certainly did rake prior to last year. There's plenty of reason to hope that his bat is much better than he showed last year.

I guess seeing so many people who are down on him, relative to how they were two years ago, makes me think that they believe more in what they saw last year.