Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, 24fps said:

Uniform Player's Contract 7(b) (1) (2) (3)

2017-2021 Basic Agreement Article IX A-C

Some termination pay would be involved, but not the full contract.  Obviously conditions would apply, but MLB contracts are contingent on more than just having a pulse.

I know such provisions exist and while I appreciate you looking it up I don't think it would play out that way.

I've never heard of a team recouping any money with that clause and I think they would have a very difficult time doing so.

Like I said earlier Ponson slugged a judge and had two drunk driving incidents and the O's still had to pay him a settlement when they released him for violating his contract.

Davis would just point to his weight lose as proof of his hard work.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

With a healthy player?  Not that I know of.

Cliff Lee went from being optioned to AAA in 2007 to winning the Cy Young in 2008. He did have a groin strain at the beginning of the 2007 season.

[24fps]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know such provisions exist and while I appreciate you looking it up I don't think it would play out that way.

I've never heard of a team recouping any money with that clause and I think they would have a very difficult time doing so.

Like I said earlier Ponson slugged a judge and had two drunk driving incidents and the O's still had to pay him a settlement when they released him for violating his contract.

Davis would just point to his weight lose as proof of his hard work.

 

 I initially responded to the proposition that Chris Davis doesn't need any motivation to improve and he gets paid regardless barring suspension.  In other words once the ink dries he no longer has to do jack.  That is patently ridiculous.  

Leave aside for a moment that no professional ballplayer I've ever heard of would take that route, I can't see the MLBPA lifiting a finger to defend such behavior should someone ever try it.  So yes, it wouldn't play out that way.  

Sitting here on the outside, it looks to me like in practice the contractual gray areas favor the player and therin lies the explanation for Ponson.  A settlement is usually more cost-effective than a lawsuit that's less than a slam-dunk.  Then there's God knows what kind of political baggage that factored in as well.  But assualt is fundamentally different than refusing to make every reasonable effort to provide the services you've been contracted to provide so I don't think Ponson's situation really belongs in this conversation.

In any case, this is all theoretical and will undoubtably remain that way, but can we at least dispense with assumptions about players being contractually bulletproof.  And while we're at it let's do away with the belief that the MLBPA is some invincible Godzilla-sized behemoth and agents possess super powers that would make Stan Lee envious.

 

 

[drjohnnyfeva]

A settlement is the way to go if Davis continues to be terrible.  From my misguided youth I remember my accounting and finance profs saying how present value money is always more valuable.  So an offer of money today that would easily grow to exceed the contractual payout if managed conservatively by the contracted player might be in order.  Lottery winners do this ALL the time.  The Player's Association would be foolish to bad-mouth such an arrangement.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

A settlement is the way to go if Davis continues to be terrible.  From my misguided youth I remember my accounting and finance profs saying how present value money is always more valuable.  So an offer of money today that would easily grow to exceed the contractual payout if managed conservatively by the contracted player might be in order.  Lottery winners do this ALL the time.  The Player's Association would be foolish to bad-mouth such an arrangement.

I don’t see why that settlement would make any sense for the Orioles.   

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Has there been a bigger turnaround in baseball history? I know Dunn came back to respectability after his terrible year but it's not like he had back to back awful years like Davis has.  He had .800 OPS seasons sandwiched around his terrible one.

I'm sure there have been with pitchers, but pitchers have no normal progression.  For example, first pitcher I pull up is Edison Volquez.  In 2013, by bb-ref, he was -2.4 WAR.  5.71 ERA, led the NL in runs allowed in only 170 innings.  In 2014 he was 13-7, 3.04 for the Pirates.

And as Can_of_corn says, injuries are usually a component.  Even if that's not the public story.

I'm not sure anyone came up with an injury for George Scott in '68 when he had a .478 OPS the year after a .839 and two years prior to an .821.

Lou Piniella had a 3.5-win 1972, a -3.1-win 1973, a 3.4-win 1974, a -1.7 win 1975, and a 1.2 win 1976.  Then a 3.7-win 1978.

From 2010 through mid-2012 Nate McLouth was 2.9 wins below replacement.  Then in a season-and-a-half with the O's he was at +2.8.

In 2010 Carlos Lee was -2.2 wins, then in 2011 he was +3.9, although some of that was weird defensive numbers.

From 1988-93 Mike Kingery OPS'd .594 in over 600 PAs.  At ages 31-32 he spent almost the entire time in AAA.  In 1994 he hit .349 with a .933 OPS.  Of course that was with the Rockies, in Mile High Stadium, before the humidor.

In 1984 John Shelby hit .209/.248/.313 in 128 games.  Over the next four years he had a .712 OPS.  Then in ''89 he had a .466 in 108 games. 

Jermaine Dye had two separate pairs of extreme years.  In '98 he OPS'd .606, in '99 he OPS'd .880.  In 2003 he OPS'd .514, and in '04 he OPS'd .793.

In 1979, at the age of 27, Alan Ashby OPS'd .538 in 108 games.  He would go on to play 10 more years in the majors including OPSes of .800+ twice.

[drjohnnyfeva]

4 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

A settlement is the way to go if Davis continues to be terrible.  From my misguided youth I remember my accounting and finance profs saying how present value money is always more valuable.  So an offer of money today that would easily grow to exceed the contractual payout if managed conservatively by the contracted player might be in order.  Lottery winners do this ALL the time.  The Player's Association would be foolish to bad-mouth such an arrangement.

 

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see why that settlement would make any sense for the Orioles.   

Wouldn't it be the job of the front office to determine the amount of the payout?  If it wouldn't be beneficial to them then they wouldn't do it. 

He's got 68 million he's due over this year and 3 more years, then 10 years of 3.5 million/ yr., then 5 years of 1.5 million/yr.   That's $110Million.  There was a $112 million Powerball jackpot won in January 2019.  The cash value of that prize payable immediately was about $59 Million.  Is it worth it to the Orioles and Chris Davis to come to a compromise?  With $68 million due over the next 4 years it might not make sense for him to consider such a thing now which would make it impossbile for the O's to get a "fair" deal.  But if the Orioles were to get a settlement where he gets less than what would be owed him in today's value of the overall contract, the Orioles should take it, shouldn't they?

We had $143 million in payroll last year.  This year's estimate is $62 million.  $80 million difference... and that is with CD being paid in the $62 million. 

Idk, it just seems there is money and one would think that wiping the slate completely clean to start afresh with this new FO team would be beneficial.  I think the way that the contract is structured makes it difficult to work the same way in which a lottery annuity would be paid out as I'm presenting it because of the front heaviness of the contract.

 

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

I thought he had a pretty good day. A walk and three well-struck balls, including one for a single that knocked in a run. It looks like he's opened his stance, forcing him to step into the ball and not open up so soon. Plus, a very nice play to his back hand.

[OFFNY]

o

 

vs. YANKEES, 3/17 )) (Spring Training)

 

After reaching base safely 2 times in 4 plate appearances today (an RBI-Single and a Walk), Davis has a respectable .346 OBP in 26 Plate Appearances for Spring Training.

 

o

[Natty]

3 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

vs. YANKEES, 3/17 )) (Spring Training)

 

After reaching base safely 2 times in 4 plate appearances today (an RBI-Single and a Walk), Davis has a respectable .346 OBP in 26 Plate Appearances for Spring Training.

 

o

We just cut 2 guys with better OBP.

[OFFNY]

4 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

vs. YANKEES, 3/17 )) (Spring Training)

 

After reaching base safely 2 times in 4 plate appearances today (an RBI-Single and a Walk), Davis has a respectable .346 OBP in 26 Plate Appearances for Spring Training.

 

o

 

 

48 minutes ago, Natty said:

 

We just cut 2 guys with better OBP.

 

o

 

Yes, I'm sure that there is plenty of legitimate argument to assert that the Orioles would be better off without Chris Davis on the 25-man roster, and that his contract is the only reason why he is still around.

My comment was an observation of Davis' modest progress at the plate in Spring Training, not a triumphant exhortation of how great he is and/or how great he will be when the real games start.

 

o

[Natty]

1 minute ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

Yes, I'm sure that there is plenty of argument to assert that the Orioles would be better off without Chris Davis on the 25-man roster, and that his contract is the only reason why he is still around.

My comment was an observation of Davis' modest progress at the plate in Spring Training, not a triumphant exhortation of how great he is.

 

o

The new regime is all about analytics to get the best players. The money analytic is the only one that keeps Davis playing. 

[OFFNY]

8 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Yes, I'm sure that there is plenty of legitimate argument to assert that the Orioles would be better off without Chris Davis on the 25-man roster, and that his contract is the only reason why he is still around.

My comment was an observation of Davis' modest progress at the plate in Spring Training, not a triumphant exhortation of how great he is and/or how great he will be when the real games start.

 

o

 

 

3 minutes ago, Natty said:

 

The new regime is all about analytics to get the best players. The money analytic is the only one that keeps Davis playing. 

 

o

 

I just said that as part of my previous comment. 

Like almost all other Oriole fans, I haven't been living on the moon in regard to Davis. Thanks anyway.

 

o

[Natty]

5 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

I just said that as part of my previous comment. 

Like almost all other Oriole fans, I haven't been living on the moon in regard to Davis. Thanks anyway.

 

o

I was just agreeing with you. 

[OFFNY]

Just now, Natty said:

 

I was just agreeing with you. 

 

o

 

OK, I apologize for being oversensitive.

 

o