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Harper to Phillies

weams

By weams
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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...because he's basically Jake Arrieta 2.0 and trending in the wrong direction? I'm sure he wants something like a 5 - 6 year deal and thinks he's an elite pitcher, but he isn't. Cobb is a good comp. and he only got a three year deal. Until Keuchel and his agent scale back their expectations I don't think teams will aggressively pursue him. 

It's a little like Harper.  Keuchel thinks, or wants to think, that with a little work he'll always be the pitcher he was in 2015.  But teams look at his record and think "What are we getting, 7 wins?  5? 4? 3? 0?  You've actually had all of those seasons."

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not like the Nats went out and found a Harper replacement,

It's possible, maybe even probable if they're healthy, that all three of the Nationals outfielders individually have a 2019 WAR that is better than Harper's 2018 WAR. Soto is legit. Eaton is apparently healthy and will play more and Robles is one of baseball's top prospects. 

Obviously Harper could blow up again and outperform 99% of baseball, but he's sprinkled in several down years, so he comes with a lot of risk.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's possible, maybe even probable if they're healthy, that all three of the Nationals outfielders individually have a 2019 WAR that is better than Harper's 2018 WAR. Soto is legit. Eaton is apparently healthy and will play more and Robles is one of baseball's top prospects. 

Obviously Harper could blow up again and outperform 99% of baseball, but he's sprinkled in several down years, so he comes with a lot of risk.

Plus, he is a marginal at best outfielder. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well, it's mostly because of his D to be honest. He had a 4.2 oWAR last year. It's the dWAR and his old stats, like BA, that are driving his value down.

In the AL he could DH for the final five seasons of an 8 year contract I suppose. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's a little like Harper.  Keuchel thinks, or wants to think, that with a little work he'll always be the pitcher he was in 2015.  But teams look at his record and think "What are we getting, 7 wins?  5? 4? 3? 0?  You've actually had all of those seasons."

Not sure I'm on board with that comparison. Harper's ceiling is extremely high, but his floor is also pretty low. It has less to do with his physical abilities then it does with his ability to put it all together and stay healthy. I'm still not convinced he's a team guy. Keuchel, on the other hand, thinks hes' a Justin Verlander, but he's more like a Jose Quintana. Unfortunately, for him, there isn't a scoring column for stupid hipster beards. 

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

It's possible, maybe even probable if they're healthy, that all three of the Nationals outfielders individually have a 2019 WAR that is better than Harper's 2018 WAR. Soto is legit. Eaton is apparently healthy and will play more and Robles is one of baseball's top prospects. 

Obviously Harper could blow up again and outperform 99% of baseball, but he's sprinkled in several down years, so he comes with a lot of risk.

Yep. Robles, Eaton & Soto. Taylor is your 4th OF. Harper should be at 1B anyways....another reason he isn't worth the $$$

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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4 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Thomas Boswell in a recent column called losing Harper "addition by subtraction" and a player he ran it by said "print it"!. All you need to know right there.

I do have this massive armchair psychologist notion that entire clubhouse is going to want to show how little they needed him and Mariners after A-Rod type things are going to happen.  In particular I see Strasburg as this antisocial personality type who's been uncomfortably twinned with the Bryce swag all these years, and someone who may be career year ready.  The first Strasburg v. Harper at-bat will be great theater, especially if he's a Phillie.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

I do have this massive armchair psychologist notion that entire clubhouse is going to want to show how little they needed him and Mariners after A-Rod type things are going to happen.  In particular I see Strasburg as this antisocial personality type who's been uncomfortably twinned with the Bryce swag all these years, and someone who may be career year ready.  The first Strasburg v. Harper at-bat will be great theater, especially if he's a Phillie.

UVa reaches the Final Four the year AFTER Ralph Sampson leaves.

Tennessee wins the National Championship the year AFTER Peyton Manning leaves.

Everybody wins the year AFTER Buck Showalter leaves.  (Woohoo!!!!!)

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