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2019 MLB Pipeline O's Top 30

wildcard

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Pheasants Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Pheasants

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Posted

I had a question looking over the grading.  I didn't check them all but I noticed 2 position players who had high grades in everything but power.  Their overall grade was lower than everything but their power grade.  So 1 factor outweighed 4.  How much is power a factor in the overall grade--50% or more?

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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21 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I had a question looking over the grading.  I didn't check them all but I noticed 2 position players who had high grades in everything but power.  Their overall grade was lower than everything but their power grade.  So 1 factor outweighed 4.  How much is power a factor in the overall grade--50% or more?

This is how it traditionally was done.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/16301/explaining-ofp-in-scouting

I don't think that's used as much anymore, I don't use it. I try and figure out how they would profile as a MLB player and adjust for risk/ceiling and that's the overall grade.

So the way I (and plenty of people with more experience and a higher profile) do it, power is very important because how the bat profiles depends on it. It's very hard to get on base at a good clip if there isn't enough power to keep pitcher's honest.

In the modern game it's much more difficult to maintain a league average batting line without average game power.

For example, in 2018, of the 140 qualified hitters, the median of HRs was 20. So take out the guys with 20 HRs and look at the guys above and below 20 HRs. 

The ones below 20 HR had a wRC+ of 98.7  

The ones above 20 HR had a wRC+ of 124.2

If you want to use ISO as a representative of game power, it's even a wider gap above and below the median ISO (which is .177)

Below .177 ISO had a 97.9 wRC+

Above .177 ISO had a 125.8 wRC+

**Note: Qualified players always have a better than league average (100) wRC+ as a group because part time players generally don't hit as well as regulars**

 

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ScGO's All-Star

ScGO's

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24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know Luke generally dismisses MLB.com’s opinions, but I found their write-ups of the Orioles prospects on this list to be pretty solid.   

This is probably there best list in a while.  Wait, what?  No Chris Lee!!!

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know Luke generally dismisses MLB.com’s opinions, but I found their write-ups of the Orioles prospects on this list to be pretty solid.   

I didn’t find anything in the order to be offensive this time. Maybe their bad O’s source left with the old regime, only half kidding.

I haven’t dug into the grades yet.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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6 hours ago, atomic said:

The guys we got in trades seem to be rated a lot lower than they rated them at the end of last season.  Highest rated player in Gausman deal is rated a 45.  That is depressing.

That’s the way it was last year as well. Encarnacion and Cumberland, actually moved up a bit in our top 30 compared to their last update. Just a terrible trade. I think DD was trying to save his job by rebuilding and showing off that he could dump Gausman. How different would that trade look if we signed VVM?  He’s #99 on the top 100 list. 

It looks like the only players that have a chance to exhaust their prospect eligibility this year are the relievers, two rule 5 guys, and Hays.  Hays just because he’s already accrued some service time in the MLB.

Hopefully, the combo of selloff 2.0 and having the top draft advantage, will really add to the talent and depth in the system.  

 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I didn’t find anything in the order to be offensive this time. Maybe their bad O’s source left with the old regime, only half kidding.

I haven’t dug into the grades yet.

For McKenna:

Quote

McKenna gets out of the box exceptionally well for a right-handed hitter and routinely posts plus-or-better home-to-first run times. That speed also gives him the chance to stay in center field, and he has more than enough arm strength for the position. Overall, McKenna has the ceiling of a center fielder who hits at either the top or bottom of the lineup, and his well-rounded game gives him a realistic fourth-outfielder floor.

Was it you who mentioned that the times he was running in AFL should make his speed higher than the 60 they have him marked at?

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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7 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

For McKenna:

Was it you who mentioned that the times he was running in AFL should make his speed higher than the 60 they have him marked at?

Yes, I had him at 70 and 80 grade home to first times personally early in the milb season. In the AFL, others also clocked him with similar run times, which I used as evidence to back up my personal data. I think there was some doubt because he wasn't stealing bases and I was the only person reporting it. 

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That’s the way it was last year as well. Encarnacion and Cumberland, actually moved up a bit in our top 30 compared to their last update. Just a terrible trade. I think DD was trying to save his job by rebuilding and showing off that he could dump Gausman. How different would that trade look if we signed VVM?  He’s #99 on the top 100 list. 

It looks like the only players that have a chance to exhaust their prospect eligibility this year are the relievers, two rule 5 guys, and Hays.  Hays just because he’s already accrued some service time in the MLB.

Hopefully, the combo of selloff 2.0 and having the top draft advantage, will really add to the talent and depth in the system.  

 

Ortiz and Tate were rated 6th and 7th at the end of last year. Now they are rated 18th and 19th behind our Rule 5 pick-up. I know they didn't come from Gausman deal but they cam from other deals. 

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AceKing Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

AceKing

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8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Ortiz and Tate were rated 6th and 7th at the end of last year. Now they are rated 18th and 19th behind our Rule 5 pick-up. I know they didn't come from Gausman deal but they cam from other deals. 

This is probably a good thing overall.  Still lots of upside with both of those guys.

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beervendor Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

beervendor

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OPs ESPN link has ranking archives going back to 2011. O's top 10 then:

1. Manny

2. Xavier Avery

3. Joe Mahoney

4. Ryan Adams

5. LJ Hoes

6. Dan Klein

7. Schoop

8. Givens

9. Brandon Snyder

10. Wynn Pelzer

Not sure what I'd expect from a retrospective top 10 at any given point, but I think it's more than this. Maybe the one generational talent in the bunch is enough.

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