If Mussina wins 20, is he a shoe-in for the Hall?

[McLovin]

Palmer was a very special guy in various ways.

Mussina can be not-Palmer and still deserve his place in the HOF.

Which is what I've already said. But somehow this has become Palmer vs. Mussina.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Per Bill James in the 2008 Gold Mine, in the history of baseball there are 23 pitchers with 220 wins and records at least 100 games above .500. 5 of those pitchers were active when James wrote that - Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, and Mussina. The other 18 are in the Hall of Fame.

[DrungoHazewood]

Which is what I've already said. But somehow this has become Palmer vs. Mussina.

I think it veered in that direction because there's a good argument that they're similar pitchers, as least as far as results. If Palmer is a first ballot shoe-in it's difficult, IMO, to argue that Mussina isn't a Hall of Famer at all.

The definition of a Hall of Famer is completely dependent on those previously enshrined.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is this true?

List of all pitchers at least 80 games over .500 (through 2006, I need to update my database on my memory stick):

Pitcher	       W	L	Over .500Cy Young	511	316	195C. Mathewson	373	188	185Roger Clemens	348	178	170G. Alexander	373	208	165Lefty Grove	300	141	159Kid Nichols	361	208	153John Clarkson	328	177	151Walter Johnson	417	279	138Randy Johnson	280	147	133Eddie Plank	326	194	132Greg Maddux	333	203	130Whitey Ford	236	106	130Bob Caruthers	218	99	119Warren Spahn	363	245	118Tim Keefe	341	225	116Jim Palmer	268	152	116C. Radbourn	309	195	114Pedro Martinez	206	92	114T. Brown	239	129	110Tom Seaver	311	205	106Mike Mussina	239	134	105Bob Feller	266	162	104Joe McGinnity	246	142	104Juan Marichal	243	142	101Tom Glavine	290	191	99Carl Hubbell	253	154	99Mickey Welch	309	211	98Sam Leever	195	100	95Clark Griffith	237	146	91Larry Corcoran	177	89	88Lefty Gomez	189	102	87Steve Carlton	329	244	85Chief Bender	212	127	85David Wells	230	148	82Dwight Gooden	194	112	82Andy Pettitte	186	104	82C. Buffinton	233	152	81Carl Mays	207	126	81Jesse Tannehill	197	116	81Dave Foutz	147	66	81D. Phillippe	189	109	80

Parisian Bob Caruthers is the only other non-HOFer among those 100 games over, and he pitched in the 1800s.

There is a bit of, well, I don't know what you call it, but people often pick these lists with a cutoff just below the player in question. The result is that they compare their guy with players way, way above that standard. With a cutoff of 100 you put Mussina in a group with Cy Young and Lefty Grove.

If you make the group "all pitchers between 80-120 games over .500" Mussina is grouped with Dave Foutz, Jesse Tannehill, Carl Mays, and David Wells.

I think this fact is just a very small input into the "is Mussina a Hall of Famer" argument.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Parisian Bob Caruthers is the only other non-HOFer among those 100 games over, and he pitched in the 1800s.

I guess he's why Bill James picked 220 wins as a requirement for his list. Seemed kind of arbitrary to me at the time.

[Old#5fan]

Or maybe you're ridiculous for pinning one player's HOF candidacy solely on whether he was able to accrue 20 wins, despite the fact that that he was one of the best pitchers in baseball for many seasons throughout the '90s and early 2000s.

I am not doing that but I must ask this question. How many present members of the HOF who entered as starting pitchers never had a twenty game winning season, a Cy Young award a no-hitter or perfect game or never lead led the league in ERA or were nominated for the Allstar game at least four or more times ( in other words some kind of remarkable category?)Again, it is the combination of hall worthy accomplishments that Mussina lacks IMO to get him in.

[Old#5fan]

I think it veered in that direction because there's a good argument that they're similar pitchers, as least as far as results. If Palmer is a first ballot shoe-in it's difficult, IMO, to argue that Mussina isn't a Hall of Famer at all.

The definition of a Hall of Famer is completely dependent on those previously enshrined.

Yeah they may be similar if you add about a point to Palmer's ERA, take away all his Cy Youngs, twenty game winning seasons, playoff and WS performances, number of complete games and shutouts that he has that exceed Mussina, no-hitter, and there you have it. They are similar. Let's put Mussina in on the first ballot as none of those things really matter anyway~~!:rolleyestf:

[Old#5fan]

Which is what I've already said. But somehow this has become Palmer vs. Mussina.

It should be Mussina versus Blyleven vrs Dennis Martinez vrs David Wells, vrs. Maddox vrs Smoltz, versus Glavine vrs Pedro, vrs Pettite, vrs Moyer, vrs Randy Johnson, vrs Shilling. I think you will see Mussina would belong in the lesser of these qualified pitchers here mentioned.

[BaltimoreTerp]

What I'm saying is that winning 20 is only somewhat correlated to how well you've pitched. It also involves run support, defensive support, how you're used, and a hundred other factors. When you pitch your whole career in a five-man rotation it gets that much harder.

From 1950, when Whitey Ford broke in, until 1960 major league pitchers had 63 twenty-win seasons. None of them by Whitey Ford. What does that say about Ford? To me it (combined with his other numbers) says he was a heck of a pitcher, a HOF pitcher, but circumstances conspired against him in his quest to win 20. Certainly doesn't mean he was less of a pitcher.

As a comparison, there have only been 58 20-win seasons in MLB since 1991, Mussina's first year. 17 years, before this year, and he has an outside shot this year.

He did lead the league, and tie for the MLB lead, in 1995 with 19 (with Greg Maddox).

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yeah they may be similar if you add about a point to Palmer's ERA, take away all his Cy Youngs, twenty game winning seasons, playoff and WS performances, number of complete games and shutouts that he has that exceed Mussina, no-hitter, and there you have it. They are similar. Let's put Mussina in on the first ballot as none of those things really matter anyway~~!:rolleyestf:

And if Palmer was pitching in the 1990s and 2000s instead of the 1960s and 1970s, that all would probably be accurate.

[Old#5fan]

And if Palmer was pitching in the 1990s and 2000s instead of the 1960s and 1970s, that all would probably be accurate.

I think not. What I would love to see from you HOF Mussina supporters are stats showing how many times he had a chance to win his 20th game in various seasons and failed. Now that would be quite an eye opener I suspect. I would think it would show that he doesn't rise to the ocasion when he has the opportunity in front of him for assurance of immortality as in - HOF entry. Kind of like going down to the last strike in a perfect game up to that point and allowing a hit. The great players complete a great accomplishment. They don't just miss it at the end. Dennis Martinez didn't miss it and to me maybe he is more hall worthy when you look at the teams he had to pitch for. He also won 20 games I believe at least once, maybe twice.

I think poetic justice will ultimately prevail and Mussina will end up consistently missing the HOF entry by a handful of votes, quite possibly even as close as just one. However, much like his quests for a 20 win season, perfect game, and Cy Young, he will fall just about a buck short. It couldn't make me any happier!:laughlol:

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think not. What I would love to see from you HOF Mussina supporters stats showing how many times he had a chance to win his 20th game in various seasons and failed. Now that would be quite an eye opener I suspect. I would think it would show that he doesn't rise to the ocasion when he has the opportunity in front of him immortality. Kind of like going down to the last sstike in a perfect game up to that point and allowing a hit. The great players complete a great accomplishment. They don't just miss it at the end.

I think poetic justice will ultimately prevail and Mussina will end up consistently missing the HOF entry by a handful of votes, quite possibly even as close as one. However, much like his quests for a 20 win season, perfect game, and Cy Young, he will fall just about a buck short. It couldn't make me any happier!:laughlol:

It wouldn't be many times, because thanks to the era and the fewer starts he got, he didn't get the same opportunities as Palmer.

You know what's interesting? Palmer led the league in wins three times, and never finished second. Mussina led once and finished second twice (and is second so far this year). All three times, Palmer finished either one win ahead or tied for the lead.

How about you try to think about how you would feel if Palmer had not had any lucky breaks go his way and he finished second twice.

20 wins is just a round number that sounds cool, like 30 or 40 home runs or 200 hits or all of the career numbers. In this era, you really need to stop thinking about 20 wins. You brought up Dennis Martinez a couple times; he never won 20 once in his career.

I can give you a player that won 20 games in a season twice, was 8-3 career in the postseason, and pitched a perfect game. Does that sound like a Hall-of-Famer to you?

I can give you a guy who pitched for 18 years and threw two no-hitters. Is he a Hall-of-Famer?

[BaltimoreTerp]

I can't believe you guys continue to try to debate with someone who uses # of 20 win seasons as a criteria for the HOF. He reminds me of the guitarist on Spinal Tap who thought he had a special amp because it went to 11. When someone is this freaking illogical, the proper choice is to figuratively pat them on the head like a little kid by telling them something like "OK, whatever you say, Tiger", and move on. You can't use logic on a fungo bat. It just doesn't work.

Since despite his lack of respect for other opinions and no comprehension for the simplest concepts in baseball and football he is allowed to remain a member, than I have no problem trying to straighten him out from time to time.

[TakebackOPACY]

I think not. What I would love to see from you HOF Mussina supporters are stats showing how many times he had a chance to win his 20th game in various seasons and failed. Now that would be quite an eye opener I suspect. I would think it would show that he doesn't rise to the ocasion when he has the opportunity in front of him for assurance of immortality as in - HOF entry. Kind of like going down to the last strike in a perfect game up to that point and allowing a hit. The great players complete a great accomplishment. They don't just miss it at the end. Dennis Martinez didn't miss it and to me maybe he is more hall worthy when you look at the teams he had to pitch for. He also won 20 games I believe at least once, maybe twice.

I think poetic justice will ultimately prevail and Mussina will end up consistently missing the HOF entry by a handful of votes, quite possibly even as close as just one. However, much like his quests for a 20 win season, perfect game, and Cy Young, he will fall just about a buck short. It couldn't make me any happier!:laughlol:

In 1992, Mussina won 18. He didn't make his first start until the 10th game of the season. I guess he started as the #5 starter. He averaged 7.5 ip/start that year, and he pitched 8 or more innings in each of his last seven starts. The team won 9 of his last 10 starts; the only loss was a 14-inning defeat. He won his last 7 decisions.

In 1994, Mussina won 16 games in just 24 starts. The strike probably robbed him of 10-11 starts. He won his last two starts and seven of his final 8 decisions.

In 1995, Mussina won 19. He was the Opening Game starter but the season didn't start until April 26th due to the strike. In his last three starts of the season, he pitched three complete games, allowing 1 run on 10 hits in 27 innings (0.33 ERA). EDIT: The one run he allowed over that time was in the first inning of his third to last start, so his final two starts were complete game shutout wins and he finished the season with 26 consecutive scoreless innings without handing the ball to the bullpen. The strike probably robbed him of 4 starts.

In 1996, Mussina won 19. In his second to last start, he pitched 7 innings and left with the lead, but the bullpen gave it up. EDIT: In his last start, he pitched 8 innings and allowed 1 earned run, but Benitez blew the save before the O's won in the 10th inning.

In 1999, he won 18. His team won his last seven starts. He won his last 5 decisions.

In 2001, he won 17. The team was 6-1 in his last seven starts. He won his last five decisions.

In 2002, he won 18. He won his last two starts.

In 2003, he won 17. He lost his final decision, but won six of his final eight decisions.

# of times he stepped on the mound with 19 wins and didn't get his 20th?

EDIT: (I knew that wasn't right!) Four, all in 1996, culminating with two blown saves by the bullpen.

[Old#5fan]

I can't believe you guys continue to try to debate with someone who uses # of 20 win seasons as a criteria for the HOF. He reminds me of the guitarist on Spinal Tap who thought he had a special amp because it went to 11. When someone is this freaking illogical, the proper choice is to figuratively pat them on the head like a little kid by telling them something like "OK, whatever you say, Tiger", and move on. You can't use logic on a fungo bat. It just doesn't work.

Apparently you fail to realize that virtually every starting pitcher in the HOF had at least a 20 win season and most have multiple years of 20 or more victories. So Mussina would be the first ever to make it without having that seemingly basic common trait. I happen to think that should be viewed as unusual. I think you are acting like an ostrich if you cannot see this. In other words to dummy it down for you it may not be a requirement but it is one of the common denominators. So to trivialize it is doing so to any HOF stat commonly shared simply because your boy doesn't have it on his resume. I find this extremely more illogical than anything I have posted on this subject.