Dwight Smith Jr worth a look?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

 Baseball! 

Baseball is weird and unpredictable, and that is what I like about it.

[webbrick2010]

The goal is to build a championship team and you will need a better player than Dwight Smith starting to get there

For this year and even next, as long as he doesn't block anyone he is fine and I hope he continues to make the most of his opportunity

[Ruzious]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

He's 26, he has over 3000 minor league plate appearances and a .747 OPS, and he's primarily a corner outfielder.  His brief major league trials have been dramatically better than his minor league resume would suggest.  

Last year he and Cedric Mullins had the same OPS in AAA.  Except that Mullins is a year younger, can handle CF, and played in a terrible hitter's park.  Joey Rickard's career AAA OPS is 50 points higher than Smith's, and that's all at Norfolk, too.  Mike Yastrzemski is a few years older but his AAA OPS is just three points lower than Smith's, and he was let go by the Orioles.

It is exceptionally rare for a player to hit .100 points better in the majors than in AAA.  Even more rare for someone who wasn't rushed through the minors.

That part about him doing very well in his previous cups o coffee caught my eye.  Maybe it's something about putting on that major league uniform - like Peter Parker puttinig on his Spidey outfit.  

[Redskins Rick]

31 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

That part about him doing very well in his previous cups o coffee caught my eye.  Maybe it's something about putting on that major league uniform - like Peter Parker puttinig on his Spidey outfit.  

Sometimes thing click a bit later for these guys. Look at Brady, a versatile defensive outfielder who could play all 3 spots, with a weak bat, and then everything click for him.

 

[HowAboutThat]

12 hours ago, rudyrooster said:

Never really understood why a rebuilding Blue Jay's team DFA'd him.  But, what do I know?

The Tigers thought the same about JD Martinez...but they didn’t complain!

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

The goal is to build a championship team and you will need a better player than Dwight Smith starting to get there

For this year and even next, as long as he doesn't block anyone he is fine and I hope he continues to make the most of his opportunity

Is that true?  Last I checked Jake Marisnick had a ring.

People need to get over the belief that a championship team is one that gets 600 ABs out of 9 above average hitters (which DSJ has been coincidently).

[Camden_yardbird]

36 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sometimes thing click a bit later for these guys. Look at Brady, a versatile defensive outfielder who could play all 3 spots, with a weak bat, and then everything click for him.

 

Christian Walker is tearing it up for Arizona.  Justin Turner has been great for LA.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Christian Walker is tearing it up for Arizona.  Justin Turner has been great for LA.

Thanks, I meant to say that about Walker, I was able to snatch him up on the fantasy baseball waiver wire and other GMs hadnt expected him to do well.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

He's 26, he has over 3000 minor league plate appearances and a .747 OPS, and he's primarily a corner outfielder.  His brief major league trials have been dramatically better than his minor league resume would suggest.  

Last year he and Cedric Mullins had the same OPS in AAA.  Except that Mullins is a year younger, can handle CF, and played in a terrible hitter's park.  Joey Rickard's career AAA OPS is 50 points higher than Smith's, and that's all at Norfolk, too.  Mike Yastrzemski is a few years older but his AAA OPS is just three points lower than Smith's, and he was let go by the Orioles.

It is exceptionally rare for a player to hit .100 points better in the majors than in AAA.  Even more rare for someone who wasn't rushed through the minors.

All of this is why I thought he was a similar player as Yastrzemski based off his minor league stats.

So far he's out performing his xBA (.247), xSLG (.430) and xwOBA (.314) and his exit velocity is in the 25th percentile all of  which suggests he will fall off some after his hot start. He's living off the fastball right now so it will be interesting to see if pitchers make an adjustment and he starts seeing a lot of off speed.

He's a slightly below average runner, but he gets decent jumps in LF, throws ok for a LFer but would be well below average in CF. He has a good approach at the plate where he limits his chases off the plate, but again, we will see what happens if he starts getting a steady diet of offspeed.

He's pleasantly surprised me so far with his production. 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Christian Walker is tearing it up for Arizona.  Justin Turner has been great for LA.

Walker's EV has increased a lot over the last year or so. He had a 86.2 EV last year and 95.9 this year. i'm wondering what he did over the offseason or if he's just got into some balls early this year. The thought always was that he had below average bat speed so I'm interested to seeing if this holds up, and if it does, what adjustments did he make?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sometimes thing click a bit later for these guys. Look at Brady, a versatile defensive outfielder who could play all 3 spots, with a weak bat, and then everything click for him.

 

That is one theory of what happened for Brady.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

That is one theory of what happened for Brady.

Sad that this happened in the RODs era.

RODs doesnt help you see the ball and identifly the pitch better.

There was never any evidence or even circumstantial evidence that link Brady to RODs.

He or a teammate like Cal was once quoted that Brady was locked in and things were clicking for him, it was as if the ball was a softball size ball coming in.

[Camden_yardbird]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Walker's EV has increased a lot over the last year or so. He had a 86.2 EV last year and 95.9 this year. i'm wondering what he did over the offseason or if he's just got into some balls early this year. The thought always was that he had below average bat speed so I'm interested to seeing if this holds up, and if it does, what adjustments did he make?

Walker is tough because there is not a lot of data on him. what we do have is a roughly equal number of pitches seen between last year and this.

What it looks like is a much better batters eye.  He is not chasing as much (35% down to 28%) and he is being more selective in the zone (Zswing from 85% to 69%).  His 1st pitch swing rate is down over ten percent as well.

Looks like someone got to him and said "you know they are throwing junk to you on the first pitch, it make look good but its producing poorly hit balls."

Coincidently 1st pitch swings was an Oriole mantra when he was in the system.

[HowAboutThat]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

All of this is why I thought he was a similar player as Yastrzemski based off his minor league stats.

So far he's out performing his xBA (.247), xSLG (.430) and xwOBA (.314) and his exit velocity is in the 25th percentile all of  which suggests he will fall off some after his hot start. He's living off the fastball right now so it will be interesting to see if pitchers make an adjustment and he starts seeing a lot of off speed.

He's a slightly below average runner, but he gets decent jumps in LF, throws ok for a LFer but would be well below average in CF. He has a good approach at the plate where he limits his chases off the plate, but again, we will see what happens if he starts getting a steady diet of offspeed.

He's pleasantly surprised me so far with his production. 

If you think that he’s playing over his head, what do you think would be normal range for him? He seems to be doing everything well, although I have no idea what kind of pitches he is hitting or not hitting. If he’s only hitting This pitch in This location, that might be a problem.

And if the coaches can anticipate what opposing pitches will notice and adjust to, Is it difficult to anticipate that adjustment and prepare for it?

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sad that this happened in the RODs era.

RODs doesnt help you see the ball and identifly the pitch better.

There was never any evidence or even circumstantial evidence that link Brady to RODs.

He or a teammate like Cal was once quoted that Brady was locked in and things were clicking for him, it was as if the ball was a softball size ball coming in.

I don't want to derail this Smith thread, but I'll just leave this:

Anderson's first 1273 PAs through ages 24-27: .219/.313/.306/.619 with a 77 OPS+
Anderson's next 2595 PAs through ages 28-31: .265/.367/.436/.802 with a 112 OPS+
Anderson's next 2649 PAs through ages 32-35: .278/.389/.505/.893 with a 131 OPS+

How many players pre and post steriod era had a major jump in production and power after 1273 major league PAs at the age of 24-27, and then was better from age 32-35 then their peak 28-31 age group?

I'm not going to call anyone a liar or say someone used steroids or not, but I can understand those who question Anderson from a statistical standpoint because that's not a normal career arch.