Dwight Smith Jr worth a look?

[Natty]

Some people on here were saying that Smith couldn't keep it up when he started hitting right away. Well he is still hitting. Not just for avg, but he is leading the team in HR and RBI, and only Villar has more stolen bases. What a gem we got in Smith...Who knew?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Natty said:

Some people on here were saying that Smith couldn't keep it up when he started hitting right away. Well he is still hitting. Not just for avg, but he is leading the team in HR and RBI, and only Villar has more stolen bases. What a gem we got in Smith...Who knew?

I still need to see more.   David Newhan had a .991 OPS in his first 40 games with us.   Jimmy Paredes put up ridiculous numbers for a while.   I’m rooting for Smith but I’m a long way from convinced.

[ChuckS]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I still need to see more.   David Newhan had a .991 OPS in his first 40 games with us.   Jimmy Paredes put up ridiculous numbers for a while.   I’m rooting for Smith but I’m a long way from convinced.

DSJ's minor league history doesn't really support the type of numbers he's putting up.

With that said, he doesn't have a lot of bad habits or holes that could be exposed.  He seems to be more disciplined at the plate than a guy like Paredes who always seem to be destined for regression.

I think he's a fourth OF long term, at worst.  

[Cumberbundy]

 

 

 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

19 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

 

 

 

Didn’t realize he still had his rookie eligibility 

[orioles22]

Too bad we couldn't have got Verdugo in the trade

 

[Three Run Homer]

The best part--maybe the only good part--about being a rebuilding/noncompetitive team is that you can give people like Dwight Smith an opportunity.  The team is full of guys who are getting their shot--Rio Ruiz, Renato Nunez, Stevie Wilkerson, Hanser Alberto, Richie Martin, John Means.  Not all of them will work out, but I'd much rather watch a team with no name minor league free agent-type guys who are fighting to prove themselves than a team full of mediocre veterans like Jay Payton and Deivi Cruz.    

[luismatos4prez]

I like him! Even after he regresses, he's still an above average hitter I think. Not a good defender so he's basically a 2nd division starter, but he's still a Major Leaguer that we got for nothing. 

[LA2]

18 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I like him! Even after he regresses, he's still an above average hitter I think. Not a good defender so he's basically a 2nd division starter, but he's still a Major Leaguer that we got for nothing. 

i hope his success lasts longer than your namesake (avatar-sake?), whose 2003 season I so enjoyed. And he could field too--in CF!

[sportsfan8703]

Last I saw he was on pace for 32 108   

[DrungoHazewood]

17 hours ago, O's84 said:

Tim Keefe once posted a 20.2 WAR in 1883 for the New York Metropolitans.

Yea... but... I don't really believe it.  This is where WAR needs a slope of history adjustment.  A really aggressive one.  

Keefe had his 20-win season in 1883.  In the American Association.  In a 98-game schedule.

He threw 619 innings and completed all 68 of his starts.  The AA was the new, upstart league that only began play in 1882.  So it was a 2nd-year expansion league, in an era where all of the things we associate with MLB were either non-existent or very primitive.  I'm guessing the New York Metropolitans were a team that had existed as an independent team prior to 1882, then just joined the new league.  

Keefe's 20-win season happened on a team that finished in 4th place in this proto-major league.  Think about that.  They went 54-42, but had a 20-win-above-replacement pitcher on the staff.  That's saying that if Keefe had been hit by a train on opening day the Mets would have finished about 34-62, going from a .560 team to a .350 team on the basis of one player.

I think we need to take a step back and remember what pitching was in 1883.  It was pretty early in the transition from the 1860s model of tossing the ball up and letting the batter put it in play, to the modern pitcher who's actively trying to get everyone out himself.  You still couldn't throw overhand.  You were throwing from a spot on flat ground about 50' from the plate.  Obviously if you could throw 619 innings in a 98-game schedule "max effort" wasn't even the faintest glimmer in anyone's mind.  Keefe was relying quite heavily on his defense, far more than any modern pitcher, although he did have more strikeouts than any other team.  He allowed 78 unearned runs, or more than one per start.

So, I don't know.  In the context of a league that's the equivalent of an indy league today, with radically different rules, and no scouting or minor leagues or really any kind of the detailed information you'd have today... I guess maybe 20 wins is a decent guess.  But I'd also say that if you put a good modern pitcher in that environment he'd be completely unhittable.  Every game would be a shot at a no hitter or a perfect game.  Imagine Chris Sale pitching mid-level college ball.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Imagine Chris Sale pitching mid-level college ball.

With a dead ball.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I still need to see more.   David Newhan had a .991 OPS in his first 40 games with us.   Jimmy Paredes put up ridiculous numbers for a while.   I’m rooting for Smith but I’m a long way from convinced.

One thing in his favor is that HR rate and HR/FB rate and batted ball bins stabilize early, like in 100 or 200 PAs.  HR per flyball is 50 BIP, according to that Fangraphs article I cited the other day.  

Smith's HR/FB rate is 17%, which is double his prior MLB/MiLB rate.  Maybe he's pulling a Jose Bautista?  I wouldn't want to assume that, but his batted ball outcomes are very different than in the past.

Also, his LD% is almost 24%, which is way higher than ever before.  I'm not sure what to make of that.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

With a dead ball.

And opponents and teammates who have never seen a gym, probably have nutritional deficiencies and a few cases of the consumption, and average 5' 8", 152 lbs.

[Just Regular]

Smith and Means are two of the Top 8 AL rookies in Fangraphs WAR to date - I guess until Vlad heats up we can enjoy tweaking Blue Jays rivals about having the better Rookie of the Year candidate a quarter of the way through the year.