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Orioles trying to acquire Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel from the Brewers?


SevisonJN

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I agree that we will need to add value to Sherrill to get Gamel, but that value is a lot less than what Arrieta's value is.

The point is MIL doesn't need the value equivalent of a Gamel-minus-Sherrill (I don't know what that would be -- maybe a prospect projecting to a #4?)

They need a Sherrill and they need young starters that can be front-end guys. That means someone like Arrieta. So, you go back and add the difference -- (Sherrill/Arrieta) minus Gamel = difference -- tp the MIL side. Low minors doesn't mean bad, it just means further away. Brewer is an excellent prospect and is around three years away, still.

Am I making sense? I hope so -- sometimes it's clearer in my head...

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No way you trade Tillman for Gamel unless you feel Tillman will ultimately not become a #1, 2 or 3 starter.

Brent Brewer and his .600 OPS does not come close to making up the difference of Tillman and Gamel.

Somebody (I think cbm) in this thread said you don't trade Sherrill and a top-25 pitching prospect for two top-50 position player prospects. That's absolutely correct.

And you don't trade Sherrill and a top-100 pitching prospect for a top-50 prospect and an extremely raw shortstop prospect.

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Not sure that follows. Value of a player isn't determined solely by where they fall on a prospect list. It's really about what you think the player will be in three years.

For example, the question would be whether a Burnett for Glaus (in his early years) would be fair, if those are around your valuations.

Last year Gamel wasn't even on the the top 100 prospect radar and now he's a top 20 prospect. His value is soaring because of the hype from his production. Now Arrieta is already a top 100 prospect and has the potential to be a top 50 guy as early as next year. His value is still rising...that's why you don't deal Arrieta. You deal someone like Penn.

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The point is MIL doesn't need the value equivalent of a Gamel-minus-Sherrill (I don't know what that would be -- maybe a prospect projecting to a #4?)

They need a Sherrill and they need young starters that can be front-end guys. That means someone like Arrieta. So, you go back and add the difference -- (Sherrill/Arrieta) minus Gamel = difference -- tp the MIL side. Low minors doesn't mean bad, it just means further away. Brewer is an excellent prospect and is around three years away, still.

Am I making sense? I hope so -- sometimes it's clearer in my head...

I think you're undervaluing Arrieta. He has 2/3 ceiling which is why he's going to be a top 50 prospect next year.

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Last year Gamel wasn't even on the the top 100 prospect radar and now he's a top 20 prospect. His value is soaring because of the hype from his production. Now Arrieta is already a top 100 prospect and has the potential to be a top 50 guy as early as next year. His value is still rising...that's why you don't deal Arrieta. You deal someone like Penn.

This isn't how it works. Again, these decisions are made based on scouting appraisals not rankings of independent media sources.

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I think you're undervaluing Arrieta. He has 2/3 ceiling which is why he's going to be a top 50 prospect next year.

Could be. I'm basing it on my appraisal, not what I read about him. I am fairly confident, however, that my appraisal is at least closer to what you'd see in an opposing FO than what we read here.

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You can't tell me that add either Huff or Roberts wouldn't get us either Escobar or Gamel, along with Hardy or Weeks (or even both of the prospects).

They would be upgrading second or third base along with their bullpen. Even more importantly, they would be upgrading with players who will be there next year, too.

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No way you trade Tillman for Gamel unless you feel Tillman will ultimately not become a #1, 2 or 3 starter.

Brent Brewer and his .600 OPS does not come close to making up the difference of Tillman and Gamel.

Somebody (I think cbm) in this thread said you don't trade Sherrill and a top-25 pitching prospect for two top-50 position player prospects. That's absolutely correct.

And you don't trade Sherrill and a top-100 pitching prospect for a top-50 prospect and an extremely raw shortstop prospect.

Tillman, I'd agree. I would not move him for anything.

I don't think your statement with regards to Arrieta is true:

Since everyone is clinging to "rankings" here is an example.

Would anyone trade Liz, Detwiler or Masterson plus Sherrill for

Jason Heyward

Matt LaPorta

Andy LaRoche?

Both Liz and Masterson are decent bets to end up in the pen and Detwiler has been lost this year, but all were ranked last year right around where Arrieta will be ranked this year (50-70)

Heyward (28) is now BAs #4 prospect

LaPorta (24) is now a BAs #7 prospect

Gamel is currently ranked #20

I'm just pointing out that using rankings as absolute rules for trading (not a Y-Rated player for two Z-rated players) is faulty logic and logic that isn't even considered by FOs. It's all about how you view the prospect and what the picture of the prospect + three years looks like in your head.

That's what the Arrieta "value" discussions should be limited to. Not whether BA will rank him 35th or 59th...

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You can't tell me that add either Huff or Roberts wouldn't get us either Escobar or Gamel, along with Hardy or Weeks (or even both of the prospects).

They would be upgrading second or third base along with their bullpen. Even more importantly, they would be upgrading with players who will be there next year, too.

1. MIL is looking ahead much further than 2009

2. Teams don't always act rationally with their top prospects

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