Orioles trying to acquire Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel from the Brewers?

[Big Mac]

Right now the O's are much deeper in hitters then are in pitchers. Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Huff, Scott are killing pitchers since the line up has gelled. Wieters and Reimold just adds to that. And since you agree that hitters are less likely to get hurt, the O's are in much better shape with hitting. Just look at the hitting stats for the last 2 months.

Starting pitching is the number one need of the Orioles. It is not even close.

This is exactly right.

We don't have great depth as far as minor league hitters, but we really don't have that many holes to fill on the Big club.

Our outfield is set for years. So is Catcher. I believe Roberts will be extended so 2nd base will be taken care of. The only position we need a long term solution to is 3rd base and SS.

Very few pitching prospects pan out as successful Major League starters (TNSTAAPP). We can definitley use more ML ready starting pitchers.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

Gotta package someone with Sherrill.

shocking thought, fans seem convinced all of our garbage should bring back 5 prospects and a usable part like Sherrill should bring back potential stars. We need a SS more than Mil needs a reliever. Havent we tried five players at short this year? Give up a couple relievers and a young player. Reimold? Rowell? Bradford? Penn? Olson? Even DCabrera if it brings us a plus shortstop. We have usable parts that arent part of the solution here. We need to focus on 2009 and 2010.

[Sports Guy]

I would love to get Escobar but I feel he is overrated on this board...I would rather have Gamel, especially if he is making strides at third as Stotle is saying.

Look, according to BB, the Brewers offered Hall for Bradford...They obviously would like to get out of Hall's contract.

So, offer them Sherrill and Bradford for Hall and Gamel.

Hall is owed 15.2 million(plus this year) through 2010...That is an awful lot of money for him but he has value and could provide us with some great bench strength.

Plus, you get Gamel, who is insurance for Tex at first and hopefully, is a third baseman for the future.

Now, if you can get LaRoche in another deal, then you target Escobar or some other SS here.

But Gamel is a stud and could be a great player for us to get. He is another Adam Jones-esque guy to add in a trade.

I take on that big contract to get a player like that, if that is what is needed to get the deal done.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

We've got two that are ML ready and only one A prospect. Everybody else is a suspect or is too far down in the minors

1B -

2B - Hoes

3B - Snyder

SS -

RF -

LF - Reimold

CF - Avery

C - Wieters

That's the list of prospects that we have for hitting.

You think Snyder ends up at 3rd and that Rowell isnt a prospect? Have you seen Hoes and Avery play? Why do you list them as prospects already? You dont think that if Tripp shows he can hit we will find a spot for him? Even if it is at DH?

[ChaosLex]

I would love to get Escobar but I feel he is overrated on this board...I would rather have Gamel, especially if he is making strides at third as Stotle is saying.

Look, according to BB, the Brewers offered Hall for Bradford...They obviously would like to get out of Hall's contract.

So, offer them Sherrill and Bradford for Hall and Gamel.

Hall is owed 15.2 million(plus this year) through 2010...That is an awful lot of money for him but he has value and could provide us with some great bench strength.

Plus, you get Gamel, who is insurance for Tex at first and hopefully, is a third baseman for the future.

Now, if you can get LaRoche in another deal, then you target Escobar or some other SS here.

But Gamel is a stud and could be a great player for us to get. He is another Adam Jones-esque guy to add in a trade.

I take on that big contract to get a player like that, if that is what is needed to get the deal done.

Someone mentioned we could pick up Gagne's contract as well.

[Big Mac]

You think Snyder ends up at 3rd and that Rowell isnt a prospect? Have you seen Hoes and Avery play? Why do you list them as prospects already? You dont think that if Tripp shows he can hit we will find a spot for him? Even if it is at DH?

I don't think many 23 OF with a sub .700 OPS in A-ball become effective Major leaguers.

But Jtrea did leave out a few prospects worth mentioning, particularly Rowell.

Henson, Adams, Angle, and Kolodny all have a chance to be Major League starters somewhere, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Someone mentioned we could pick up Gagne's contract as well.

I would prefer that but they lose Gagne after this season anyway...Hall's contract is much more of a future problem and you would think the Brewers would be happier to move that and may be more willing to trade Gamel because of that.

The other side to that is if you trade Gamel and Hall, who plays third now and in the future? Branyan?

Because of that, they may prefer to keep Hall for right now if they trade Gamel and thus, Gagne makes sense for them to trade in that scenario, especially if they get BRadford back as well.

[bluedog]

This is exactly right.

We don't have great depth as far as minor league hitters, but we really don't have that many holes to fill on the Big club.

Our outfield is set for years. So is Catcher. I believe Roberts will be extended so 2nd base will be taken care of. The only position we need a long term solution to is 3rd base and SS.

Very few pitching prospects pan out as successful Major League starters (TNSTAAPP). We can definitley use more ML ready starting pitchers.

That leaves 1st, DH, SS & 3B all as huge question marks by my count plus we have no guarantee of extending Roberts (and no prospects behind him) plus we have (and will continue to have) an anemic bench.

I'd say that 50% of our projected offense for 2010 is currently a black hole. And behind that group, we have nothing - absolutely ZERO quality prospects in the pipeline at or above Low A ball unless you believe Snyder has turned the corner. We are a couple of injuries away from having an absolute train wreck offensively.

At pitcher, we have quality regulars in:

Guts

DCab

Ray (assuming recovery from injury)

Albers (assuming recovery from injury)

Sherrill

Sarfate

Bierd

plus something like 12 - 15 prospects at Low A or above who have a reasonable chance of contirbuting to this club by 2010. And we have Olson and Liz who may figure things out and several relievers (Castillo, Cabrera, etc) who have pitched very very well in limited duty and could turn into long term keepers.

There is absolutely no comparison here - if you are planning for 2010 and beyond, this club is in far better shape at pitcher than on offense.

Now IF we extend Roberts and IF we sign Tex and IF Reimold can stick at LF allowing us to put Scott at DH, then our offense looks somewhat better. Those are all big ifs and I don't think we can count on any of those things happening just yet.

[tywright]

So, offer them Sherrill and Bradford for Hall and Gamel.

Melvin is not going to trade for 2 relievers unless we take one of his.

From Rosenthal:

Melvin again denied interest in Orioles closer George Sherrill; the Brewers are locked into their veteran relievers, and would need to release one if they added another. The demotion of lefty Mitch Stetter — a move necessary to make room for right-hander Jeff Suppan's return from the disabled list — deprived them of their last remaining flexibility ...

[Big Mac]

We've got two that are ML ready and only one A prospect. Everybody else is a suspect or is too far down in the minors

1B -

2B - Hoes

3B - Snyder

SS -

RF -

LF - Reimold

CF - Avery

C - Wieters

That's the list of prospects that we have for hitting.

Here's the SP list

Matusz

Tillman

Arrieta

Bergesen

Berken

Hernandez

Spoone

Erbe

Penn

Patton

Butler

Beato

Bascom

Britton

How of those pitchers do youy really think will become above-average ML starters?

The odds aren't very good, I'd say that we will only see 3 or 4 of those guys become consistintley above-average ML starting pitchers.

[NoVaO]

Tillman, I'd agree. I would not move him for anything.

I don't think your statement with regards to Arrieta is true:

Since everyone is clinging to "rankings" here is an example.

Would anyone trade Liz, Detwiler or Masterson plus Sherrill for

Jason Heyward

Matt LaPorta

Andy LaRoche?

Both Liz and Masterson are decent bets to end up in the pen and Detwiler has been lost this year, but all were ranked last year right around where Arrieta will be ranked this year (50-70)

Heyward (28) is now BAs #4 prospect

LaPorta (24) is now a BAs #7 prospect

Gamel is currently ranked #20

I'm just pointing out that using rankings as absolute rules for trading (not a Y-Rated player for two Z-rated players) is faulty logic and logic that isn't even considered by FOs. It's all about how you view the prospect and what the picture of the prospect + three years looks like in your head.

That's what the Arrieta "value" discussions should be limited to. Not whether BA will rank him 35th or 59th...

I understand all that. When I use rankings, it's an easy way of applying value to what I think that player will end up being. But yeah, should Arrieta have a bad year, I would use a different ranking to justify Arrieta's value, so I understand what you're saying in that regard and it's a fair point.

But let's phrase this differently...we already agree on Tillman--we're done with that. But Arrieta's upside is that of a #2/#3 starter. He has already conquered Single-A, and AA is not far removed from the major league level.

His peripherals, besides a little shaky command, are all very strong. I don't value Liz nearly as much as I do Arrieta because of the poor control, the low GB rates to go along with the high HR:FB ratios plus the fact that he has always been fairly old for his league left my skeptical.

I didn't value Detwiler that much either. Masterson is better than Liz and Detwiler by a decent margin, I think.

My basic belief is to stockpile pitching, especially given the situation we are in now because we have so few answers right now. When we finally fill some holes in our rotation, then we should focus on trading from the pitching depth we've accumulated. I think Arrieta is one of the guys that will eventually fill one of the holes in our rotation, so I would be reluctant to deal him now.

[Sports Guy]

Melvin is not going to trade for 2 relievers unless we take one of his.

From Rosenthal:

That's fine...

[Big Mac]

That leaves 1st, DH, SS & 3B all as huge question marks by my count plus we have no guarantee of extending Roberts (and no prospects behind him) plus we have (and will continue to have) an anemic bench.

I'd say that 50% of our projected offense for 2010 is currently a black hole. And behind that group, we have nothing - absolutely ZERO quality prospects in the pipeline at or above Low A ball unless you believe Snyder has turned the corner. We are a couple of injuries away from having an absolute train wreck offensively.

At pitcher, we have quality regulars in:

Guts

DCab

Ray (assuming recovery from injury)

Albers (assuming recovery from injury)

Sherrill

Sarfate

Bierd

plus something like 12 - 15 prospects at Low A or above who have a reasonable chance of contirbuting to this club by 2010. And we have Olson and Liz who may figure things out and several relievers (Castillo, Cabrera, etc) who have pitched very very well in limited duty and could turn into long term keepers.

There is absolutely no comparison here - if you are planning for 2010 and beyond, this club is in far better shape at pitcher than on offense.

Now IF we extend Roberts and IF we sign Tex and IF Reimold can stick at LF allowing us to put Scott at DH, then our offense looks somewhat better. Those are all big ifs and I don't think we can count on any of those things happening just yet.

Ist base is easy, Huff or Tex will be there.

I don't think signing B-Rob is a big IF.

If we trade Sherrill, we will most likely get back a SS or 3B.

I think it is way too early to call Bierd a quality regular. Despite his decent ERA in a small sample size, he is walking as many people as he strikes out.

I think D-Cab is a borderline quality regular. You are going to see a big time regression in his numbers in the second half, his final ERA will be closer to 6.00 than 4.00, IMO. He allows way too many baserunners and it is catching up with him.

Assuming any pitcher will recover from a torn labrum isn't wise.

Again pitching prospects rarely pan out, many pitchers get hurt, much more frequently than hitters. Some pitchers can completely dominate in the minors, but never figure it out in the big leagues.

I'm not against trading for more bats, I believe we need 2 young infielders, but we should trade guys like Sherrill for them, not our starting pitching prospects. Until we have a couple of pitching prospects pitching effectively in the Majors, our top minor league arms should be untouchable.

[JTrea81]

I don't think many 23 OF with a sub .700 OPS in A-ball become effective Major leaguers.

But Jtrea did leave out a few prospects worth mentioning, particularly Rowell.

Henson, Adams, Angle, and Kolodny all have a chance to be Major League starters somewhere, IMO.

Rowell is no longer a top prospect in my eyes. He might still have a chance but I think he'll be in the minors for at least 4 more years.

Adams bat is too weak for 3B or the OF and his defense is too lousy for 2B.

Angle has regressed and isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in low A with a .742 OPS

Henson has been moved to 3B and has a .686 OPS in low A.

Hoes and Avery were well regarded and they are doing well in the GCL so that's why I listed them. Hoes is our best second base prospect.

Kolodny may have a shot but he's yet to show the power that he once showed in the GCL.

[Big Mac]

Rowell is no longer a prospect in my eyes.

Adams bat is too weak for 3B or the OF and his defense is too lousy for 2B.

Angle has regressed and isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in low A with a .742 OPS

Henson has been moved to 3B and has a .686 OPS in low A.

Kolodny may have a shot but he's yet to show the power that he once showed in the GCL.

Rowell is 19 he is a prospect, it's foolish to write him off.

Now, I'm not saying any of these guys are elite prospects, but they are mostly young enough to where I believe maybe just 1 of them will become a ML regular.

As far as Rowell, he's 19 friggin years old. Snyder is 21 and putting up a .793 OPS in the same league. I have no doubt Rowell would far exceed tose numbers in the Carolina League in two years.

Rowell also has had much improved plate discipline over the last month, he has a .390 OBP and a .799 OPS in the month of July.