Orioles trying to acquire Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel from the Brewers?

[Big Mac]

Rowell is no longer a top prospect in my eyes. He might still have a chance but I think he'll be in the minors for at least 4 more years.

Adams bat is too weak for 3B or the OF and his defense is too lousy for 2B.

Angle has regressed and isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in low A with a .742 OPS

Henson has been moved to 3B and has a .686 OPS in low A.

Hoes and Avery were well regarded and they are doing well in the GCL so that's why I listed them. Hoes is our best second base prospect.

Kolodny may have a shot but he's yet to show the power that he once showed in the GCL.

O.K. I see you edited your post and worded some things much better.

Even if Rowell is in the minors for 4 more years, he will still only be 23 when he makes the big leagues.

And just for the record, I'm not saying Angle, Adams, or Henson are great prospects, they are just guys with a little bit of potential.

[NoVaO]

Rowell is no longer a top prospect in my eyes. He might still have a chance but I think he'll be in the minors for at least 4 more years.

Adams bat is too weak for 3B or the OF and his defense is too lousy for 2B.

Angle has regressed and isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in low A with a .742 OPS

Henson has been moved to 3B and has a .686 OPS in low A.

Hoes and Avery were well regarded and they are doing well in the GCL so that's why I listed them. Hoes is our best second base prospect.

Kolodny may have a shot but he's yet to show the power that he once showed in the GCL.

Avery has a .592 OPS in Rookie ball. Yes, he's hit a lot of singles in his last 10 games, but that doesn't qualify as doing well. Hoes is doing alright.

Kolodny's power is just what you would expect from a guy who skips a level and plays in a pitcher's park and a pitcher's league.

[NoVaO]

One thing I wanted to add about Gamel before people thinking I'm slighting him...I'm proud of the fact I picked Gamel to be one of the hitters to break out this year. This article will basically tell you everything you need to know about Gamel including a couple adjustments made to his swing from 2006 to 2007:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hitting-prospects-to-watch-in-2008/

My conclusion:

Gamel has yet to put up numbers that really make you say "wow," but he has improved each and every year in gradual amounts. He is a prime candidate to take his improvements and transfer them to a breakout performance in 2008. Overall, he profiles as an average-to-above-average everyday player at the major-league level

The only difference between now and then is I would move his upside from "average-to-above-average every day player" to simply "above average everyday player". The bat will play really well at third base, but his value does drop some because of his defense. His bat plays at first base, but not nearly as well as third base.

He's progressed very nicely this year, showing increased power and a slightly lower K%. But the biggest difference is a BABIP increase from .365 to .422. This shows his ability to hit for average, but it also shows he's probably been somewhat lucky, too.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

That leaves 1st, DH, SS & 3B all as huge question marks by my count plus we have no guarantee of extending Roberts (and no prospects behind him) plus we have (and will continue to have) an anemic bench.

I'd say that 50% of our projected offense for 2010 is currently a black hole. And behind that group, we have nothing - absolutely ZERO quality prospects in the pipeline at or above Low A ball unless you believe Snyder has turned the corner. We are a couple of injuries away from having an absolute train wreck offensively.

At pitcher, we have quality regulars in:

Guts

DCab

Ray (assuming recovery from injury)

Albers (assuming recovery from injury)

Sherrill

Sarfate

Bierd

plus something like 12 - 15 prospects at Low A or above who have a reasonable chance of contirbuting to this club by 2010. And we have Olson and Liz who may figure things out and several relievers (Castillo, Cabrera, etc) who have pitched very very well in limited duty and could turn into long term keepers.

There is absolutely no comparison here - if you are planning for 2010 and beyond, this club is in far better shape at pitcher than on offense.

Now IF we extend Roberts and IF we sign Tex and IF Reimold can stick at LF allowing us to put Scott at DH, then our offense looks somewhat better. Those are all big ifs and I don't think we can count on any of those things happening just yet.

This is why the team is targetting the dates when our kid pitching is due to arrive. We have one and a half to two years to fill in a lineup around the pitching we have coming.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

How of those pitchers do youy really think will become above-average ML starters?

The odds aren't very good, I'd say that we will only see 3 or 4 of those guys become consistintley above-average ML starting pitchers.

how many do we need? If Guthrie is our number two and DCab is our number 4 or 5, we need an ace, a 3 and a 4 or 5. Tillman, Patton and Arrieta respectively? Matusz? I like our odds.

[Big Mac]

how many do we need? If Guthrie is our number two and DCab is our number 4 or 5, we need an ace, a 3 and a 4 or 5. Tillman, Patton and Arrieta respectively? Matusz? I like our odds.

Yeah, but what arevthe chances they step in and become an above-average ML starter right away. Let's say they come up toward the end of next year, in that case I would say the earliest they can become a #1, 3, and 5 respectively is mid to late 2011.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

Yeah, but what arevthe chances they step in and become an above-average ML starter right away. Let's say they come up toward the end of next year, in that case I would say the earliest they can become a #1, 3, and 5 respectively is mid to late 2011.

Maybe I missed it in the thread but I am not advocating any of these guys come to OPACY any time soon. I think the earliest any of them sniff major leagues is late 2010. I am fine with beginning of 2011. Havent we screwed up enough kids by bringing them up before they were ready? Let's sacrifice Liz, Penn and Olson to keep the kids down until they are ready.

[Big Mac]

Maybe I missed it in the thread but I am not advocating any of these guys come to OPACY any time soon. I think the earliest any of them sniff major leagues is late 2010. I am fine with beginning of 2011. Havent we screwed up enough kids by bringing them up before they were ready? Let's sacrifice Liz, Penn and Olson to keep the kids down until they are ready.

I honestly have forgotten who was making what points in this thread.

My point is while we do have offensive holes in the minors, if we want to compete by 2010 we will need to acquire 1 and probably 2 young, good, Major League ready starting pitchers.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

I honestly have forgotten who was making what points in this thread.

My point is while we do have offensive holes in the minors, if we want to compete by 2010 we will need to acquire 1 and probably 2 young, good, Major League ready starting pitchers.

Gotcha. My point is that I dont care when we compete. Well, I do but it is not my focus. It will come. I have waited ten years. Now I want to see a competently run organization and if I get that, I have faith that competitive will follow. I want no more rushing prospects up, even if the fans think they are "owed it". I want no more 3rd rate big name, low production moves to pacify the fan base. I want no more overruling of the baseball people in the FO. If the team delivers all of that, I will be patient and not ask any question regarding now, how soon, short run or immediate gratification. I know that position isnt popular adn I dont feel a need to debate it. I just present it because that is how I feel.

[Big Mac]

Gotcha. My point is that I dont care when we compete. Well, I do but it is not my focus. It will come. I have waited ten years. Now I want to see a competently run organization and if I get that, I have faith that competitive will follow. I want no more rushing prospects up, even if the fans think they are "owed it". I want no more 3rd rate big name, low production moves to pacify the fan base. I want no more overruling of the baseball people in the FO. If the team delivers all of that, I will be patient and not ask any question regarding now, how soon, short run or immediate gratification. I know that position isnt popular adn I dont feel a need to debate it. I just present it because that is how I feel.

Well then it looks like we are on the same page.

[Stotle]

I understand all that. When I use rankings, it's an easy way of applying value to what I think that player will end up being. But yeah, should Arrieta have a bad year, I would use a different ranking to justify Arrieta's value, so I understand what you're saying in that regard and it's a fair point.

But let's phrase this differently...we already agree on Tillman--we're done with that. But Arrieta's upside is that of a #2/#3 starter. He has already conquered Single-A, and AA is not far removed from the major league level.

His peripherals, besides a little shaky command, are all very strong. I don't value Liz nearly as much as I do Arrieta because of the poor control, the low GB rates to go along with the high HR:FB ratios plus the fact that he has always been fairly old for his league left my skeptical.

I didn't value Detwiler that much either. Masterson is better than Liz and Detwiler by a decent margin, I think.

My basic belief is to stockpile pitching, especially given the situation we are in now because we have so few answers right now. When we finally fill some holes in our rotation, then we should focus on trading from the pitching depth we've accumulated. I think Arrieta is one of the guys that will eventually fill one of the holes in our rotation, so I would be reluctant to deal him now.

Just wanted to say I see where you are coming from. Good post -- reasonable minds can disagree on trades, for sure.

[Tx Oriole]

T81, you want to trade the teams top pitching prospects. The team is short on good pitching. Look how bad the rotation is doing now. You don't give up your top pitching prospects for a prospect 3rd baseman or SS either. IMO