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Grayson Rodriguez 2019

WalkWithElias

By WalkWithElias
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Luke-OH
Luke-OH

There are 350 some 19 year old pitchers in affiliated ball. Grayson has thrown the 8th most innings of that group. 

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

He's my report on his start tonight against Lakewood... 7/1 vs Lakewood 1st inning  FB 91-92, 94 (t95)  cb 75. 77, 79 ch 76-79 82 slider 1. R - 3-2 KL, 94 2. L 1-1 7, 93 L- 3-

LTO's
LTO's

As always, this is more important than the box score (although he's still doing well there). Fastball velocity was down last start and was right back up this morning. We got ourselves a good one.

joelala All-Star

joelala

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking the stadium gun was a little hot.   Still, no doubt it was an impressive showing.   

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

This seems likely. Velocity numbers, specifically sitting numbers, are typically inflated.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

Posted
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2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

I heard a quote one time, I’m not sure who it came from but it was from someone in the scouting/front office community. It was during Justin Turner’s 2nd 5 WAR season and went something the effect of if Justin Turner turned into a 5 WAR player then the ceiling for everyone in the upper minors is one of the best players in the league. 

Basically when people say ceiling, they talk about reasonable ceiling, not absolute ceiling but absolute ceiling wouldn’t be particularly useful in distinguishing between players.

That said, if he’s truly holding 96-97, that obviously changes the profile and any ceiling assessment. Although Keith Law thinks the arm action doesn’t work so he’d still project significant relief risk. I don’t think I ever said #3 ceiling, btw.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I heard a quote one time, I’m not sure who it came from but it was from someone in the scouting/front office community. It was during Justin Turner’s 2nd 5 WAR season and went something the effect of if Justin Turner turned into a 5 WAR player then the ceiling for everyone in the upper minors is one of the best players in the league. 

Basically when people say ceiling, they talk about reasonable ceiling, not absolute ceiling but absolute ceiling wouldn’t be particularly useful in distinguishing between players.

That said, if he’s truly holding 96-97, that obviously changes the profile and any ceiling assessment. Although Keith Law thinks the arm action doesn’t work so he’d still project significant relief risk. I don’t think I ever said #3 ceiling, btw.

I think a lot of evaluators hedge their bets when it comes to young starting pitchers and err on the side of average.  I don't recall a lot of guys being projected years out as #1 or #2's.

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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On 8/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, joelala said:

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

Every time I looked at the radar after a FB it said 96/97.  I don't remember seeing many 95's and don't think I saw any 94's, but let's be honest I probably looked over at the radar reading 15-20  pitches or so.    My guess is gun was a little hot, but man did he make the glove explode.  We watched the first two innings behind visiting dugout, the kids came back after striking out shaking their heads and laughing.  We walked out to the deck that goes behind the fence at shorebirds stadium and the sound the glove was making on FBs was unreal.  I was most impressed by his curveball, it was missing bats by wide margin.  I don't recall seeing many change-ups.   It was very impressive.  He is a big boy

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think a lot of evaluators hedge their bets when it comes to young starting pitchers and err on the side of average.  I don't recall a lot of guys being projected years out as #1 or #2's.

Not sure, but I think this is a bit of a cop out. I just think the standard for a #1/2 is very high. 

That said, before Law came out and questioned whether Grayson could hold his velocity, I think most evaluators would have said his ceiling is a #2. People listen to that guy. I'm not saying he's right, but he's no dummy regardless of what every fan base in baseball thinks of him. lol.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Not sure, but I think this is a bit of a cop out. I just think the standard for a #1/2 is very high. 

That said, before Law came out and questioned whether Grayson could hold his velocity, I think most evaluators would have said his ceiling is a #2. People listen to that guy. I'm not saying he's right, but he's no dummy regardless of what every fan base in baseball thinks of him. lol.

I think his twitter followers listen to him.

I don't think other evaluators pay him more attention than his peers.

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