The Suck is in full swing now

[atomic]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Outside of a six year run between 2008-2013, the Rays have never finished better than 13 games back from the Division winner and have only one .500 record or better (last year). This is what you hope for?

Now I do think the Rays management have done a good job of building a team under limited resources in a tough Division, but it's not like they have a sustained level of success yet to start clamoring for.

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 86

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, atomic said:

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 86

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

Actually this should be:

 

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 70

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

The Astros won 86 and 84 wins the next two seasons after that. I am guessing the Rays win more games the next two seasons as well. 

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Actually this should be:

 

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 70

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

The Astros won 86 and 84 wins the next two seasons after that. I am guessing the Rays win more games the next two seasons as well. 

 

Just let me know when the Rays win a World Series or win 100+ two years in a row.    

Actually, I’m not faulting the Rays rebuild, which was impressive.   But every situation is different.   Elias inherited a 47-win team with a mediocre farm system and no international pipeline.    He wasn’t going to win 70+ this year no matter what he did.    This is a multi-year project and there’s just no getting around that.   

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Outside of a six year run between 2008-2013, the Rays have never finished better than 13 games back from the Division winner and have only one .500 record or better (last year). This is what you hope for?

Now I do think the Rays management have done a good job of building a team under limited resources in a tough Division, but it's not like they have a sustained level of success yet to start clamoring for.

It'll be interesting to see how they do the next few seasons. They've kind of went through a soft-rebuild the last few seasons and seem poised to go on another run.

The Rays started out as an expansion team and came in last place for the first ten years of their existence. They were then fantastic for six seasons, from 2008 - 2013 - making it to the World Series and three other playoff appearances. Those teams were led by some high-profile picks: BJ Upton (2nd Overall in 2002), Evan Longoria (3rd Overall in 2003), and David Price (1st Overall in 2007).

They also had Carl Crawford (2nd Round in 1999), Alex Cobb (4th Round in 2006), Desmond Jennings (10th Round in 2006). They also did their fair share of trading: Matt Garza (Traded for Delmon Young), Chris Archer (traded for Matt Garza), and Ben Zobrist (Traded for Aubrey Huff). And of course, they had their trash-heap signings: old Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena, Luke Scott.

Primarily, they built through the draft the first time. This time, they've still drafted guys (Snell) - but they've relied a little bit more on trades (Adames, Zunino, Pham, Meadows, Glasnow, Yandy Diaz, Robertson, Wendle) - primarily because they had guys to trade once their previous core got too expensive for them. I'm interested to see how that approach works.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. I don't think we can really except the O's to be able to do what the Rays did the last few years (at this point at least) because their situation is different. The O's have a relatively-whatever farm system, probably need a few years to reasonably build the relationships to sign impact international talent, don't have a ton of trade-able value at the big-league level, and their payroll is bogged down by a bunch of expensive crap. It's going to be a long road.

 

 

[theocean]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just let me know when the Rays win a World Series or win 100+ two years in a row.    

Actually, I’m not faulting the Rays rebuild, which was impressive.   But every situation is different.   Elias inherited a 47-win team with a mediocre farm system and no international pipeline.    He wasn’t going to win 70+ this year no matter what he did.    This is a multi-year project and there’s just no getting around that.   

I've heard this said a bunch - but I don't think a World Series and 100+ wins is the gold standard for a successful team. It's a bit dismissive of the successes of other teams (Rays were pretty dang good for a while and made it to a World Series.) The 2017 Astros aren't the only team to ever be good and I don't think a rebuild is automatically a failure if a team fails to win it all.

 The Giants won three Championships without winning more than 94 games. They won the 2014 World Series with a 88-74 record. The Royals have have three winning seasons since 2004. But, they made two World Series and won one. I think any of us would take that.

 

[webbrick2010]

On ‎4‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 9:56 AM, nate22 said:

I think Bundy's ceiling has dropped to a mid-rotation guy but he still can be a decent back end starting pitcher.  He is what he is.

Have you been watching for the past year.

Bundy's ceiling is a guy that manages to hang on in some ML bullpen for a year or two before retiring  before the age of 30.

[LA2]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

What?  The Rays had one season where they lost 92 games but other than that it was a few seasons around .500 and then they are back being a good team.  Why do I want some joke of a team for 5 seasons?  Plenty of teams have gone from being bad to being good without being a joke of a team .  Even the Cubs who you guys mention all the time always won at least 60 games in a season. 

The A's never won less than 68 games in a season.  The same with the Brewers.  The Red Sox had a bad season and then turned it around.  This being terrible to be terrible is an excuse for owners to save money.  When the Astros were terrible they were the most profitable team in baseball. 

By the stats you cited in a subsequent post, the Astros won 56, 55, 51 games in consecutive seasons. That comes pretty close (106, 107, and 111 losses) to the 110-losses standard of suckitude you invoked, except that it's only three seasons instead of the five you project for the O's. But, you state, that was tolerable  because of the profit the Astros managed anyway (I'll take your word for that).

If that is so, then it comes down to some contracts that Elias inherited. Those were not his fault and there's little that he can do about it aside from waiting out the Trumbo contract and hoping Cobb recovers and can be traded. The Davis thing....

The O's are also trying to get out of a deep hole crippled by a minor-league system that is much weaker than the Red Sox's, A's, or Cubs' were. Elias was a main architect for the resurgent Astros' draft choices and player development, but it wasn't until his fourth year that they broke .500.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 86

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

Yes but the Stros have a World Series win.  The Rays don’t. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Actually this should be:

 

Rays Rebuild five years:

77, 80 , 68, 80, 90

Astro's rebuild 5 years.  

76, 56, 55, 51, 70

I will take the Rays rebuild over the Astros.  

The Astros won 86 and 84 wins the next two seasons after that. I am guessing the Rays win more games the next two seasons as well. 

 

Oof.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Yes but the Stros have a World Series win.  The Rays don’t. 

How do you know.  The Astros didn't win the World series until 3 years after this 5 year period.  That would mean the Rays would need to win 2021 World Series to keep pace.

[Tx Oriole]

7 minutes ago, atomic said:

How do you know.  The Astros didn't win the World series until 3 years after this 5 year period.  That would mean the Rays would need to win 2021 World Series to keep pace.

I remember much about the Rays but have they ever been in a WS?

[TonySoprano]

3 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I remember much about the Rays but have they ever been in a WS?

They lost the Series in 5 games to the 2008 Phillies.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

How do you know.  The Astros didn't win the World series until 3 years after this 5 year period.  That would mean the Rays would need to win 2021 World Series to keep pace.

Like I said, let me know when they win the whole thing.   Maybe they will.    I’d certainly be happy if they did.   

As I said before, I don’t think there’s a one size fits all way to rebuild.    Tampa has never allowed its team to get really old, dealing guys like Price, Shields and Garza and replenishing their team even when they were contending.    The O’s didn’t do that, trading away several good prospects and losing draft picks.     So we are just in a much different position than Tampa and not in a position to emulate their rebuild.     

That said, I don’t think Elias gets to go 3-4 years without us evaluating how he’s doing.    We will need some evidence that the talent level in the organization is building and that players in the system are developing well.    

[Dipper9]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, let me know when they win the whole thing.   Maybe they will.    I’d certainly be happy if they did.   

As I said before, I don’t think there’s a one size fits all way to rebuild.    Tampa has never allowed its team to get really old, dealing guys like Price, Shields and Garza and replenishing their team even when they were contending.    The O’s didn’t do that, trading away several good prospects and losing draft picks.     So we are just in a much different position than Tampa and not in a position to emulate their rebuild.     

That said, I don’t think Elias gets to go 3-4 years without us evaluating how he’s doing.    We will need some evidence that the talent level in the organization is building and that players in the system are developing well.    

I have a feeling the second half of the season we'll see Hayes, Mountcastle, Diaz, and others come up and give some life to this team.  We still have zero pitching though and I don't see a lot in the system to even have hopes of helping anytime soon.

 

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just let me know when the Rays win a World Series or win 100+ two years in a row.    

Actually, I’m not faulting the Rays rebuild, which was impressive.   But every situation is different.   Elias inherited a 47-win team with a mediocre farm system and no international pipeline.    He wasn’t going to win 70+ this year no matter what he did.    This is a multi-year project and there’s just no getting around that.   

Well said, and to think anything less, is unrealistic.

This thread is becoming more and more like the game day threads, and enter at your own risk.