Are Baseballs "Juiced" This Season?

[Maverick Hiker]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1662455001

to correct link

[ChrisP]

2 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1662455001

to correct link

Great...a former O giving quotes (Segui). 

[Tryptamine]

17 hours ago, Maverick Hiker said:

I suspect the players are juiced, rather than the baseballs.  

Remember the last time there was an unexplained surge in HR  like this in MLB.  McGwire, Canseco,, Bonds, Sosa, all of them turned out to be on the juice. As I get older, I see that history often repeats itself.

Here is what I suspect is  happening. The majority of MLB hitters and pitchers are now on PED.  Only it's different  from the old McGwire days,  today's PED don't bulk the players up to look like the Incredible Hulk.  Also the drug makers are so far ahead of the weak testing program in MLB that players will very rarely get caught.   '

The pitchers are throwing faster fastballs, because they are on PED,.  Because the batters are also on PED,  when they do connect ,the ball leaves the bat with greater velocity and often leaves  the park. Hence strikeouts are up due increased velocity of pitchers on PED,  and the HR are up due to batters on PED. 

No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.

[Can_of_corn]

That ball that Sisco hit last night sure carried a ton.  Looked like shallow warning track off the bat.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.

I think that's one of the strongest pieces of evidence for it being the primarily the ball.  We have an absolutely clear case where Ball A was used in AAA last year, and with the same basic level of play we have Ball B this year.  This year homers are up 56% in the IL, and 52% in the PCL!

You're going to have a really hard time convincing me that everyone in AAA suddenly started taking undetectable radioactive industrial steroids just this past offseason.

[DrungoHazewood]

45 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

https://www/usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/07/08/mlb-as-home-runs-fly-at-record-pace-doping-question-returns/1662455001/

Excellent article about possible  doping in MLB, in today's USA today.

That's fine in laying out a theoretical case where PEDs might have an impact.  But there's no evidence.  No failed tests.  No one admitting taking anything.  Mainly a bunch of guys from the early 2000s talking about how it has to be PEDs just like back in their day.

The AAA homer rate means that perhaps PEDs are part of this, but absolutely, without any doubt the ball is a huge piece of it.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, SteveA said:

Rosenthal mentions in an article in the Athletic that a lot of GMs are telling MLB they need to know, one way or the other, what the plans are going forward for baseballs next year and beyond.  Will it be status quo or will some attempt be made to de-juice them?  They need to determine the hitting environment so they can determine what types of hitters, and pitchers, to pursue as the trading deadline approaches.

A related thing to think about is if they deaden the ball, who is this era's Larry Sheets?  Players will have different reactions to playing with a juiced or un-juiced ball.  It's not going to be across the board and linear.  If we drop back 30% or 40% to a more historically normal home run rate there will be players whose careers crater.

[Maverick Hiker]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's fine in laying out a theoretical case where PEDs might have an impact.  But there's no evidence.  No failed tests.  No one admitting taking anything.  Mainly a bunch of guys from the early 2000s talking about how it has to be PEDs just like back in their day.

The AAA homer rate means that perhaps PEDs are part of this, but absolutely, without any doubt the ball is a huge piece of it.

Segui seemed to indicate he keeps in touch with current players and he said easily 60% of todays players are juiced. He also indicated the ball is "hot", but that the main cause of this is players on PED.

The article also explained that players who were caught are usually not caught by MLB's testing program, but they make other mistakes that lead to them being caught.  There are so many ways to get around the MLB PED testing, it's just not working well.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

26 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

Segui seemed to indicate he keeps in touch with current players and he said easily 60% of todays players are juiced. He also indicated the ball is "hot", but that the main cause of this is players on PED.

The article also explained that players who were caught are usually not caught by MLB's testing program, but they make other mistakes that lead to them being caught.  There are so many ways to get around the MLB PED testing, it's just not working well.

 

I think Segui has it backwards.  Some players are on stuff, but I don't see any reason why that would change year-to-year.  But one change in the ball and immediately 50% more homers in AAA.  PEDs are the background, the ball is the overwhelming factor.

[El Gordo]

The parameters for the co efficient of restitution of the MLB ball, allow for a variation in flight of up to 10 feet or more. So they can change the ball to increase or decrease the number of HR and still say the ball is the same. They've been doing this for years. Steroids? We don't need no stinkin' steroids!

[OFFNY]

o

 

The AL starting pitcher for tomorrow's All-Star game is Justin Verlander.

Verlander leads the Major Leagues in Home Runs Ceded (26), but he also leads the Major Leagues in WHIP (0.813) and the American League in Hits-Per-9 Innings (5.400) ......... hence, I would presume that that is part of the reason for his very solid ERA of 2.98 (he gives up round-trippers, but not a lot of base-runners.)

 

In regard to the notion of juiced balls, Verlander's Home Run rate of 1.847 is by far the highest of his Major League career.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

o

[Tryptamine]

Verlander has been ridiculously lucky so far. A 90.7LOB% is more than 15% over his career average and his .181babip isn't even remotely sustainable, his career number is .281.

[OFFNY]

16 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The AL starting pitcher for tomorrow's All-Star game is Justin Verlander.

Verlander leads the Major Leagues in Home Runs Ceded (26), but he also leads the Major Leagues in WHIP (0.813) and the American League in Hits-Per-9 Innings (5.400) ......... hence, I would presume that that is part of the reason for his very solid ERA of 2.98 (he gives up round-trippers, but not a lot of base-runners.)

 

In regard to the notion of juiced balls, Verlander's Home Run rate of 1.847 is by far the highest of his Major League career.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

o

 

 

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

 

Verlander has been ridiculously lucky so far.

A 90.7 LOB% is more than 15% over his career average, and his .181 BABIP isn't even remotely sustainable ........ his career number is .281.

 

o

 

Thanks for the additional info.

 

o

[TonySoprano]

Quote

 "It's a f---ing joke," said Verlander, an eight-time All-Star who is starting his second All-Star Game on Tuesday. "Major League Baseball's turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you've got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the f---ing company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it's not a guess as to what happened. We all know what happened. Manfred the first time he came in, what'd he say? He said we want more offense. All of a sudden he comes in, the balls are juiced? It's not coincidence. We're not idiots."

Asked if he believed the balls were intentionally juiced by the league, Verlander said: "Yes. 100 percent. They've been using juiced balls in the Home Run Derby forever. They know how to do it. It's not coincidence. I find it really hard to believe that Major League Baseball owns Rawlings and just coincidentally the balls become juiced."

Quote

"I hate the way I feel out there," Verlander told ESPN. "No matter who's the batter, I feel like I'm constantly walking a tightrope, because any batter can go opposite field. Any batter can leave with any pitch that's anywhere in the zone. You can't miss barrels anymore. You have to miss bats. There's been multiple times this year where five years ago I'd probably just throw a fastball away. I can't do that. Because you're the 8-, 9-hole hitter and you still can hit an opposite-field homer."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27149029/verlander-mlb-juicing-balls-more-offense

 

[Punchandjudy]

22 hours ago, Punchandjudy said:

Are the baseballs juiced? I don’t think that’s the real question.  Rather, I want to know: was juicing the balls intentional? 

Guess Verlander answered my question above and then some! 

Next question, will MLB change the balls back? Or will they basically do the same thing they did by turning a blind eye to dopers and completely invalidate all the stats that came before.