Trade value 2019

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Encarnacion is making $21.7 mm this year and whatever team has him at the end of the year is on the hook for a $5 mm buyout of his $20 mm option for next year.   Mancini is under team control at relatively cheap prices this year and the next three.    That’s a huge factor in their trade value.  

You are quite correct. I completely forgot EE’s salary. So that’s a point back in Trey’s favor.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, interloper said:

You're not wrong, but teams aren't going to simply be looking at OPS+ when targeting a guy in a trade. There's a lot more to consider like age, control years, athleticism, clubhouse stuff, their own proprietary projection systems, etc. I think it's fair to say that Trey Mancini isn't Steve Pearce simply because they have similar career OPS+'s. 

I wasn't suggesting that they're the same, just that first basemen who has some good years, some not so good years, and ends up with a 115 OPS+ is in a group of some interesting/recognizable names.  My initial thought had been that a 115 out of a first baseman is roughly average.  Which it is.  But a roughly average player over a career means he probably had some pretty good individual seasons.

Mancini at 27 is obviously more valuable than a similar player at 33 or 36.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Philip said:

You are quite correct. I completely forgot EE’s salary. So that’s a point back in Trey’s favor.

That's a lot of points.  $20M in today's market can buy you a pretty fair number of wins.  Mancini will probably make less than that over his three arb years combined.

[glenn__davis]

17 hours ago, interloper said:

 Remember, Schoop started off really poorly last year, then got insanely hot right before the trade deadline, and we cleaned up.

Not really sure I'd say we "cleaned up".  We got a guy to play 2B for a few years while we need to field a team, a pitcher that at best is a decent reliever if he develops, and a toolsy low minors guy that seems unlikely to develop into much.

I mean it was probably fair value for what Schoop was worth at the time, but not exactly a blockbuster on our end.

[LTO's]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Not really sure I'd say we "cleaned up".  We got a guy to play 2B for a few years while we need to field a team, a pitcher that at best is a decent reliever if he develops, and a toolsy low minors guy that seems unlikely to develop into much.

I mean it was probably fair value for what Schoop was worth at the time, but not exactly a blockbuster on our end.

Villar is better than Schoop so the rest is gravy imo. Especially if Villar can in turn snag us a better player at this year's deadline.

[HowAboutThat]

49 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Villar is better than Schoop so the rest is gravy imo. Especially if Villar can in turn snag us a better player at this year's deadline.

I’m not sure we won that trade so much as the Brewers lost it.

Villar is a useful piece, for us and possibly for others too, but not high-value.

and the prospects we got can hardly be called top-tier.

[nate22]

I think last seasons assets had more value than this season. Givens, might end up having the most value of the bunch if he can perform between now and the deadline. Teams often overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. As far as guys like Cashner and Cobb, that solely depends on what else is available.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Villar is better than Schoop so the rest is gravy imo. Especially if Villar can in turn snag us a better player at this year's deadline.

Schoop is carrying an .887 OPS right now.    They’ve both been worth 0.6 rWAR so far.   Schoop has been worth 12.2 rWAR in 5+ years of service; Villar has been worth 8.7 in 4+.    (They’re about 59 days apart in service time.).  So I wouldn’t necessarily say that Villar is better than Schoop.    I would say, however, that 2.3 years of Villar is better than 1.3 of Schoop.   

[LTO's]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Schoop is carrying an .887 OPS right now.    They’ve both been worth 0.6 rWAR so far.   Schoop has been worth 12.2 rWAR in 5+ years of service; Villar has been worth 8.7 in 4+.    (They’re about 59 days apart in service time.).  So I wouldn’t necessarily say that Villar is better than Schoop.    I would say, however, that 2.3 years of Villar is better than 1.3 of Schoop.   

Half of Schoop's homeruns came against us and one of them was against Davis. He's been extremely inconsistent. Villar is as solid a fielder and for sure a better baserunner. He also has a higher fWAR. I loved Schoop but at this point, 2017 looks like a huge outlier in his career and imo him and Villar are currently roughly equal in value. I agree with another poster that the Brewers lost the trade more than we won it but I still think we got more than Schoop was worth in Villar alone. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Half of Schoop's homeruns came against us and one of them was against Davis. He's been extremely inconsistent. Villar is as solid a fielder and for sure a better baserunner. He also has a higher fWAR. I loved Schoop but at this point, 2017 looks like a huge outlier in his career and imo him and Villar are currently roughly equal in value. I agree with another poster that the Brewers lost the trade more than we won it but I still think we got more than Schoop was worth in Villar alone. 

You are seriously nit picking Schoop's homeruns to try and make Villar look better in comparison?

 

Weak.

[LTO's]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are seriously nit picking Schoop's homeruns to try and make Villar look better in comparison?

 

Weak.

Villar has been more valuable than Schoop since the 2018 trade deadline. That's just a fact. I don't have to nitpick anything. I said as much in my post. You can look it up for yourself and see. As I said, I think they are roughly equal players and Schoop's value is inflated due to an outlier year I don't think he'll match again. He still walks less than 4% of the time while still striking out over 20% of the time. All while not playing great defense or adding value on the basepaths. His OPS went from .690 to .857 after our series was my larger point. Not that having a higher OPS makes you a more valuable player in the first place.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm just going to dismiss an entire season's worth of data because it doesn't fit my narrative then cherry pick start and stop dates.

[HowAboutThat]

One thing is pretty obvious, and that is that Alex Cobb isn’t going anywhere.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

One thing is pretty obvious, and that is that Alex Cobb isn’t going anywhere.

Not that obvious to me.   It’s April.   Plenty of time to right the ship and build value.    

[Beef Supreme]

On 4/25/2019 at 2:52 PM, interloper said:

Yeah I think we're about a month (or more) away from really being able to talk trade value. Remember, Schoop started off really poorly last year, then got insanely hot right before the trade deadline, and we cleaned up. The opposite could happen for a guy like Mancini. It's all about timing. 

Cashner is a guy you hope keeps it rolling out there and gets you a minor leaguer of some sort. 

Givens I think we should move as fast as possible if he starts to get hot. 

This is the first time I have heard that the Orioles "cleaned up" in the Schoop trade. I hope that Jean Carmona is going to be so great as to make this statement accurate.