If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Luke-OH]

18 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

I’ve never seen that listed anywhere everything I’ve read says he has a plus hit tool. Do you have a link to a scouting report that supports that his hit tool is questionable?

I'm curious who has his future hit as 60 (plus)? I sure haven't seen that. 

[jjnono]

Take Vaughn and tape a bus ticket on Davis' locker....  Of course, as a Cal grad, I'm a bit biased on this one...

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

History suggests that a lot more can go wrong with an 18-year old over the next few years than with a 21-year old. Those additional years of maturation can mean a lot.

Hasn't the gap narrowed significantly in outcomes between college draftees and high school?  30 years ago you were waaaay better off drafting a college player.  But 3-4 years ago I'm sure I read that there was now little or no difference in 6-year value between the two.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Hasn't the gap narrowed significantly in outcomes between college draftees and high school?  30 years ago you were waaaay better off drafting a college player.  But 3-4 years ago I'm sure I read that there was now little or no difference in 6-year value between the two.

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. 

[jrobb21613]

13 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm curious who has his future hit as 60 (plus)? I sure haven't seen that. 

I’ll try and find the article but it didn’t say he currently had a plus hit tool but instead it was a 45 and this was months ago but that if he continued to hit like he was those concerns would be alleviated leading to a plus hit tool and he’s done nothing but rake this year and has cut back on his swing and misses.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, jrobb21613 said:

I’ll try and find the article but it did t say he currently had a plus hit tool but instead it was a 45 and this was months ago but that if he continued to hit like he was those concerns would be alleviated leading to a plus hit tool and he’s done nothing but rake this year and has cut back on his swing and misses.

Hitting off of 80mph fastballs and 30 grade breakers doesn't tell scouts anything. That's why the showcase season is so important for HS prospects. 

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Okay, so I'll go a little deeper into the "It's all pretty much a crap shoot" statement. I didn't mean to imply that all drafter players are equal and you can pick any of them by tossing a dart at a board. Rather, what I was trying to say was that having the 1:1 position is very important because you get to select from among the very best amateur players. But, even if you make the best choice, you aren't guaranteed the best outcome. So, within that pool of best available players it is somewhat of a crap shoot as to which will work out and which won''t. 

I appreciate that you were getting more specific with your position here, but I still think it's misstated. "Somewhat of a crap shoot" either means the odds are still high, to me, or it's a throwaway line. I don't know what the specific odds are in general for a #1 pick or specifically for Rutschman, but if he fails to pan out as a regular ML starter I think it would be quite surprising. He might not be Buster Posey, but he sure seems like much more than a crap shoot to me. 

The risk profile for this guy is off the charts good. He has hit, and hit against good college competition. His defense is an asset that serves as a back stop against less than expected hitting. Compare that to Witt, who is old for his level and hasn't faced the same competition. Or compare that to Vaughn who has a great hit tool apparently but plays a defensive position without much value. Injuries could be a differentiator, I assume.

And that's just the risk profile. When you compare ceilings, it's not like others blow Rutschman away. So he seems to have a much higher floor and a similar ceiling. Don't get me wrong, I'd take an 18 year old Ken Griffey, Jr. any day, but that guy isn't walking through the door of this draft.

[atomic]

4 hours ago, Number5 said:

So, you're saying that you would rather draft the guys that turn out rather than those that don't, right?  (smacks forehead)  Wow, wish I had thought of that.

 

No that is not what I said at all. I am that drafting Rutschman is the better move than drafting some high school kid on the cheap. 

[makoman]

59 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

I’ve never seen that listed anywhere everything I’ve read says he has a plus hit tool. Do you have a link to a scouting report that supports that his hit tool is questionable?

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2019/05/2019-draft-preview-bobby-witt-jr/

The blurbs and the overview seem to make clear that the hit tool is a concern to some people. More swing and miss than people would like. Might be meaningless, but it's something. Again, I'm no scout, so I'm just repeating what I've seen, and this isn't the only place that said that. He's still a consensus top few pick, but you seem to be saying above that it'd be dumb not to take him at 1-1 and I just don't agree with that.

 

[mdbdotcom]

21 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I appreciate that you were getting more specific with your position here, but I still think it's misstated. "Somewhat of a crap shoot" either means the odds are still high, to me, or it's a throwaway line. I don't know what the specific odds are in general for a #1 pick or specifically for Rutschman, but if he fails to pan out as a regular ML starter I think it would be quite surprising. He might not be Buster Posey, but he sure seems like much more than a crap shoot to me. 

The risk profile for this guy is off the charts good. He has hit, and hit against good college competition. His defense is an asset that serves as a back stop against less than expected hitting. Compare that to Witt, who is old for his level and hasn't faced the same competition. Or compare that to Vaughn who has a great hit tool apparently but plays a defensive position without much value. Injuries could be a differentiator, I assume.

And that's just the risk profile. When you compare ceilings, it's not like others blow Rutschman away. So he seems to have a much higher floor and a similar ceiling. Don't get me wrong, I'd take an 18 year old Ken Griffey, Jr. any day, but that guy isn't walking through the door of this draft.

According to the dictionary, a crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome. That's how I meant it, and that's what I said.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

According to the dictionary, a crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome. That's how I meant it, and that's what I said.

Yeah, I don’t have a problem with it.   You can play the odds correctly and still lose a substantial portion of the time.   

[jrobb21613]

4 minutes ago, makoman said:

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2019/05/2019-draft-preview-bobby-witt-jr/

The blurbs and the overview seem to make clear that the hit tool is a concern to some people. More swing and miss than people would like. Might be meaningless, but it's something. Again, I'm no scout, so I'm just repeating what I've seen, and this isn't the only place that said that. He's still a consensus top few pick, but you seem to be saying above that it'd be dumb not to take him at 1-1 and I just don't agree with that.

 

I don’t think it would be dumb not to take but instead that it wouldn’t be dumb if we did take him over Adley. I tell ya must if not all the scouting right ups I see online were written before he started playing ball this year. I’d be curious to see some more up to date reports that are more recent taking into consideration his senior year. I can’t seem to find it but I’d read it might of been on Twitter that one area of concern was swing and miss and that he had done less of that this year. Regardless I think he would be a great pic for us and so would Adley personally I’m a fan of Witts and would like to see us take him but sure as heck would not be disappointed with Adley

[LookinUp]

19 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

According to the dictionary, a crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome. That's how I meant it, and that's what I said.

People make a ton of money predicting things with less than 100% odds. I know the odds aren't 100%, but I don't believe the outcome is purely unpredictable. 

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

People make a ton of money predicting things with less than 100% odds. I know the odds aren't 100%, but I don't believe the outcome is purely unpredictable. 

I don't gamble or look at odds, so I don't care.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hasn't the gap narrowed significantly in outcomes between college draftees and high school?  30 years ago you were waaaay better off drafting a college player.  But 3-4 years ago I'm sure I read that there was now little or no difference in 6-year value between the two.

 

2 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. 

It could be that the average production/value is nearly identical, but there's a higher variance on the HS players, which would make sense.  The truly elite guys often declare early as possible, making up the far right side of the distribution, while there's some far worse outcomes because one is operating with substantially less info (and making more assumptions about maturity, body development, etc.) vs. the college guys.