If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[TonySoprano]

Rutschman may not be the slam dunk selection some assume he may be.   As a reminder...
 

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In three consecutive years, the Astros made the top pick with mixed results, landing star Carlos Correa in 2012 and bust Mark Appel in 2013 while failing to sign the 2014 No. 1, Brady Aiken (whose spot turned into Alex Bregman’s with the second overall pick the following year).

In the years that Houston did sign its top pick — including Bregman’s class — the Astros agreed to deals under the proposed slots for their top selection, and then used that savings to grab players above the suggested slots later on in the draft. That philosophy allowed Houston to convince high schoolers Lance McCullers Jr., Rio Ruiz and Daz Cameron, among others, to forego college commitments and turn pro.

The philosophy of those years in Houston was simple: Get the best bang for your buck and not just one standout player for the highest bonus.

It wouldn’t be surprising for Elias to do that in his first draft running the whole show — except that the top two players available are baseball unicorns, an incredibly polished switch-hitting college catcher and a five-tool high school shortstop with big-league genes.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Sure, but that strategy is going to be a lot riskier with the Diamondbacks having all those picks and associated pool money.

I think it would be a bad year not to pick the BPA.

[vab]

Quote

 

Can't you trade draft picks now in baseball? If so, I think they at least have to look into doing that. Rutschman looks great but he's only one guy, this organization needs quantity and quality.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, vab said:

Can't you trade draft picks now in baseball? If so, I think they at least have to look into doing that. Rutschman looks great but he's only one guy, this organization needs quantity and quality.

Competitive balance only.

[DrungoHazewood]

 

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Competitive balance only.

They need to change that rule to allow all picks to be traded.  In prior years I'd assume the Orioles would screw it up, instead dumping them for short-term goals or not participating out of plain ultraconservativsm.

But with Elias?  My guess is that the O's would have 78 picks in the 2021 draft.

On the other hand, the difference in value between picks (except a few high round one selections) is small.  You might collect more picks, but not move up or down strategically.

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

They need to change that rule to allow all picks to be traded.  In prior years I'd assume the Orioles would screw it up, instead dumping them for short-term goals or not participating out of plain ultraconservativsm.

But with Elias?  My guess is that the O's would have 78 picks in the 2021 draft.

On the other hand, the difference in value between picks (except a few high round one selections) is small.  You might collect more picks, but not move up or down strategically.

I think it'd be trickier to move up to get a prime prospect.  Your 2nd round pick and whatever else you could offer isn't nearly worth what it would cost to get up into the top 10 in round 1.  It's not that way in the NFL or NBA drafts.  

[Moose Milligan]

The big day is getting closer...I am somewhat nervous.

[DirtyBird]

Not sure if this has been answered, but why would we need to give Rutschman full slot money?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

He also mentions Derek Jeter in the same quote. That's..... an ENORMOUS difference lol. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

“There’s no doubt in my mind that...in 5-7 years, he’s going to be Mike Trout.”

That might be the most ridiculous quote about a player that I have ever read.    Even if Witt turns out to be the best player in this draft, his chances of being as good as Trout are minuscule.   Even if you thought that was a possibility, to say “there’s no doubt in my mind” is just absurd.    

Let me know if Witt puts up a 10 WAR season in 2021.   He’ll be a couple of months older then than Trout was in 2012.    

[Luke-OH]

21 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Not sure if this has been answered, but why would we need to give Rutschman full slot money?

They wouldn't, hence all the media reports of the Orioles looking at other options. 

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Cy Bundy said:

He’s a jr, if you’re thinking we can low-ball a Sr.

 

 

I'm thinking he wouldn't go back to school to be drafted again next year, when he would be a senior, over $1 million.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

We wouldn't, hence all the media reports of the Orioles looking at other options. 

ahhhh, ok. that makes sense.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“There’s no doubt in my mind that...in 5-7 years, he’s going to be Mike Trout.”

That might be the most ridiculous quote about a player that I have ever read.    Even if Witt turns out to be the best player in this draft, his chances of being as good as Trout are minuscule.   Even if you thought that was a possibility, to say “there’s no doubt in my mind” is just absurd.    

Let me know if Witt puts up a 10 WAR season in 2021.   He’ll be a couple of months older then than Trout was in 2012.    

Agreed, strongly dislike hyperbole like that. 

[mdbdotcom]

26 minutes ago, interloper said:

He also mentions Derek Jeter in the same quote. That's..... an ENORMOUS difference lol. 

Let's not forget that the 2009 Gatorade Player of the Year was Matt Hobgood.