If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

If they take Witt and try to get him to sign under slot, what is the chance that he would balk and head off to a JC?

Pretty close to 0%

You have the order wrong, they will get him to agree to sign under slot before they take him.

I guess he could change his demands after he gets drafted but I don't think that happens.

 

If the O's don't already have an almost finished deal in place when they make the pick they are doing it wrong.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

Of the 54 players picked 5th overall only 8 have more career WAR than Wieters.  

We disagree often, but when you’re right you’re right. Sign me up for drafting a player immediately if the “downside” is Matt wieters in Baltimore. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Wow Atomic. This is his first year with O’s. I can’t hold anything against him for whatever happened with another organization. For goodness sakes give the man a chance. 

I love how he whiffed on a pick because a kid failed his physical.  

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love how he whiffed on a pick because a kid failed his physical.  

Keep running with that narrative. They up their offer for the player right before the deadline.  Their offer was much more than they had to make to get the second pick the next year.

[webbrick2010]

I think picking a catcher is extremely risky.

If Bobby Witt is truly a five tool SS, and one or two of the tools don't develop he still has a long productive ML career.

If a catcher can't catch, gets injured and can't catch, etc... his value plummets

If he can catch in many cases his hit tool wears down

Give me a guy with plus speed, plus arm, and plus hit contact rate. I'd love a team of CF'ers and SS's

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Simple poll/discussion.  I think we all seem to understand that Rutschman is the consensus #1 overall pick and that a lot of us here want to take him.  However, Elias was part of the decision making process that took Carlos Correa #1 overall for the Astros which was a surprise to some back in 2012.  Mark Appel or Byron Buxton were thought by many to go #1 overall.

The thought process was that Correa would sign for less and that the Astros could spend more later in the draft.  Which, IIRC, they did.  And Correa worked out for sure.

So what if that happens on June 3rd?  What if Elias, Sig and the analytics team value someone else higher or just as high AND think that they can spend more money later?  What would your reaction be?  Poll above.

 

 

So I think I can say I follow the amateur draft prospects more than anyone here and as I’ve said many times in many threads I think Rutschman is clearly the best prospect. He’s a 100% lock to stick behind the plate and barring severe physical decline provide value there defensively. And at the plate you can compare his performance to a successful Oregon State draftee like Michael Conforto and Rutschman totally blows him out of the water. The tools are there too, bat speed, natural loft, 6+ raw power from both sides of the plate along with an advanced approach.

That said, there are some scenarios where I’d be ok with them going in a different direction. If they think Hunter Bishop’s arm can be improved, then he’s a 7 power, 6 run guy you can play in centerfield. Witt Jr could be a star. C.J. Abrams has the prototypical body and tools of an elite major league player even if the results aren’t there yet. Josh Jung is a guy who sneakily be a 6 hit, 6 power 3B . And then there is Vaughn who is the best present day bat in the class but if a 5’11” R/R 1B.

So if the O’s can get one of those guys at a considerable savings to slot (2M underslot isn’t unheard of for 1-1) and get a mid first round talent tough sign to 42, then that works for me. There are also some 1st round talents who’ve been injured, Spencer Jones, Kenyon Yovan, Graeme Stinson who you could use overslot on in the 2nd, 3rd, or comp picks. Also there are some Soph eligible guys who might need overslot money to sign who be good value at one of those picks mentioned above like Drey Jameson, Brady McConnell, and Greg Jones.

So there are some ways to go ina different direction that’d make some sense, but those scenarios have plenty of ifs involved and could go very wrong. So I’d prefer they just take the best player.

[atomic]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I think picking a catcher is extremely risky.

If Bobby Witt is truly a five tool SS, and one or two of the tools don't develop he still has a long productive ML career.

If a catcher can't catch, gets injured and can't catch, etc... his value plummets

If he can catch in many cases his hit tool wears down

Give me a guy with plus speed, plus arm, and plus hit contact rate. I'd love a team of CF'ers and SS's

Yeah Witt could be the next Tim Beckham.  Picking high school players is more risky than picking college catchers.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I think picking a catcher is extremely risky.

If Bobby Witt is truly a five tool SS, and one or two of the tools don't develop he still has a long productive ML career.

If a catcher can't catch, gets injured and can't catch, etc... his value plummets

If he can catch in many cases his hit tool wears down

Give me a guy with plus speed, plus arm, and plus hit contact rate. I'd love a team of CF'ers and SS's

Yes and no.  A four tool guy who is missing his hit tool isn't going to have a long productive career.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Darkhawk said:

Depends on the why. If they select someone else because ownership is cheap then I will disappointed. If they select someone else and then six years later there is a whole chapter detailing why Dominic Mandingo, projected fiftieth rounder, was actually the best player in the draft in the Orioles version of the Astroball book, then I'll be okay with it. 

You could make the argument that the Astros selected Correa to save on slot, but Astroball details why they thought he was actually the best player available. So even though the industry and the public thought they were being cheap the Astros so far seem to have drafted the most accomplished player from that draft  If they think there is a player of that caliber just as good as Rutschman and then we save on slot and can get better players after him then I'm all for it. 

This is excellent post and is where I am.  I trust them to make the choice, I would be curious as to their reasoning and hope they would provide that to us.  It would be a significant risk for them given that he appears to be the consensus.  If he becomes Joe Mauer, Johnny Bench,  Pudge, Buster Posey, etc, and the guy they pick flames, then he will have that around his neck for the rest of his career.  

But we need lots of talent and if the results do better by taking a different pick, I an supportive of their decision making....Angelos princes? No, not much, they get credit from me for continuing primarily to having nothing to do with it except to rubber stamp whatever Mike and Sig want to do during the rebuild.m

[Luke-OH]

Just a quick point, not picking someone to be cheap isn’t a thing anymore.

There is pretty much a hard cap to draft bonuses based on set slot values for picks. If they go underslot at one, it’s not to save money, it’s to use the savings to go overslot elsewhere.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Just a quick point, not picking someone to be cheap isn’t a thing anymore.

There is pretty much a hard cap to draft bonuses based on set slot values for picks. If they go underslot at one, it’s not to save money, it’s to use the savings to go overslot elsewhere.

If the O's only spend 9 million on the draft it's going to be a big story

[weams]

4 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Personally I hope they take Witt. Even though Rutchmans more major league ready. I believe Witt to be the overall more talented player especially being 3 years younger. If Witt continues to progress which I’m sure he will imagine how good he’ll be in 3 years when he’s Rutchmans current age.

Rutschman will probably be 25 before he see the Orioles. That is only two full years in the minors. He would then be a free agent catcher at age 31.  I can see reasons for the Orioles not to draft him. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty close to 0%

You have the order wrong, they will get him to agree to sign under slot before they take him.

I guess he could change his demands after he gets drafted but I don't think that happens.

 

If the O's don't already have an almost finished deal in place when they make the pick they are doing it wrong.

And that would be absolutely astonishing if our team got that part wrong.    They won't. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

From what I recall Bobby Witt Jr has faced lesser competition in regular season play compared to other top high school players. Not that it means he won't be good, but I want Rutschman.

Witt is old for a high schooler. Old enough to make a difference. I have no idea who they will select and how they will play the pool out. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Rutschman will probably be 25 before he see the Orioles. That is only two full years in the minors. He would then be a free agent catcher at age 31.  I can see reasons for the Orioles not to draft him. 

Three examples of top 5 college catchers spending less than two full years in the minors.

Wieters- 1 1/4 seasons in the minors.

Posey-  Called up during first full season.

Zunino- Called up during first full season.