O's 2020 MLB Draft Chat: Picking #2/30/39/74

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Big Mac said:

I don't like the idea of just deciding not to take a pitcher.  Maybe it is because they rank some of the underslot guys higher, but if the strategy is just not take a pitcher generally I think it's unwise. 

I'm sure it is just this particular class of pitchers at #2. I don't think it is an organizational philosophy not to take a pitcher with a top pick, just with this class. I imagine if there was a Strasburg available, they would take him.

[Jammer7]

20 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

As I've brought up before, I love Blaze Jordan's upside and would be very happy to get him. His stock dropped after a so-so showing against tougher pitching this past summer, but high upside HS'ers always intrigue me.

It is encouraging to hear LHP Dax Fulton. I’ve been hoping we would take him with one of 30/39. Not a huge Blaze Jordan guy. It’s one big tool, raw power, and a 1B/DH profile. The raw power is nice though.

There are a few college SS’s and college arms I figure Elias might be looking at for one of the two picks. But there are several very toolsy HS picks that should be there if Elias wants to take a chance. 

[Greg Pappas]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It is encouraging to hear LHP Dax Fulton. I’ve been hoping we would take him with one of 30/39. Not a huge Blaze Jordan guy. It’s one big tool, raw power, and a 1B/DH profile. The raw power is nice though.

There are a few college SS’s and college arms I figure Elias might be looking at for one of the two picks. But there are several very toolsy HS picks that should be there if Elias wants to take a chance. 

It's hard to know what Blaze Jordan becomes at just 17. I agree with you that his prolific power is his one big tool, but he may yet develop into a decent defender somewhere and develop his batting eye.  Time will tell. I prefer we look at him after 39, but he may not be available at 74. Hard to determine.  

[Jammer7]

On 5/29/2020 at 10:17 AM, Greg Pappas said:

It's hard to know what Blaze Jordan becomes at just 17. I agree with you that his prolific power is his one big tool, but he may yet develop into a decent defender somewhere and develop his batting eye.  Time will tell. I prefer we look at him after 39, but he may not be available at 74. Hard to determine.  

Eye of the beholder thing. He’s just not for me. He has apparently worked hard to tone his body. It is hard to say what he will become, but the risk is extreme with him. I would hope he goes to college and develops an ability to hit good pitching and get to his power in games. 

[Greg Pappas]

I think with the opinions that the O's could go under-slot and take Nick Gonzalez, we should begin to take a harder look at him.

• He just turned 21 a few days ago
• He's 5/10-190
• Bats and throws right-handed
• Played at New Mexico State
• Had a remarkable career, leading the NCAA in batting in 2019
• Was the Cape Cod Wood Bat Summer League MVP last year.

A couple of pieces on Gonzalez:

From Luke Jackson on May 17th on PressboxOnline.com ... https://pressboxonline.com/2020/05/18/top-mlb-draft-prospect-nick-gonzales-on-his-navy-orioles-connections/
From May 26th on MLB.com... https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-prospect-nick-gonzales
 

[Greg Pappas]

As well, there are rumors that the Tigers may not take Torkelson, leaving the O's with the chance to take him. The odds are the Tigers take Tork, but I think while most feel it'll go Tork and Martin, we may see some unexpected things happen at the top.  It'll be interesting. As O's fans, I'd take the time to look at Tork, Martin, Lacy and Gonzalez, to feel covered. Heck, maybe even a couple of others. 

[wildcard]

Last year Elias first seven draft picks were position players.  If this year the draft is pitching heavy,   take 'em.

[rudyrooster]

The more I read about LHP Asa Lacey, the more I like him.

[WalkWithElias]

Any rumors that the Tigers aren’t taking Tork sounds like the usual smoke screens/negotiating tactics that happen the closer you get to draft day. In the end I think we’re picking between Martin, Lacy and Gonz. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, WalkWithElias said:

Any rumors that the Tigers aren’t taking Tork sounds like the usual smoke screens/negotiating tactics that happen the closer you get to draft day. In the end I think we’re picking between Martin, Lacy and Gonz. 
 

Just like the O's were looking at players other than AR last year.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's a new piece about 5 potential draft choices for the O's, from Dan Connolly of TheAthletic.com. It's behind a paywall ($).

Note: Perhaps one other (long shot) prospect Dan could've added is HS OF'er Zac Veen.

I will only share this bit on Asa Lacy: 

Quote

Why the Orioles will take him: Because they want another top-shelf arm to match with young hurlers such as DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez. Lacy is the prototype starting pitcher. He is big, left-handed, can reach 98 with his fastball and has three other quality pitches, including an excellent slider. He dominated in his first four starts and has jumped over Emerson Hancock as the best pitcher in this draft. And did I mention, he is a lefty?

Why the Orioles won’t take him: Because you can’t miss when you have the second overall pick, and pitching is always a risk, especially at such a price tag. Consider that the last five pitchers to go No. 2 overall were shelved by elbow or shoulder surgeries early in their careers (Justin Verlander was also taken No. 2 in 2004 and is a future Hall of Famer). Add in Elias’ experience with No. 1 overall pitchers that busted while he was with the Houston Astros, and the safe play here is definitely a hitter. Especially with one of Martin’s pedigree available.

 

[Jammer7]

15 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Here's a new piece about 5 potential draft choices for the O's, from Dan Connolly of TheAthletic.com. It's behind a paywall ($).

Note: Perhaps one other (long shot) prospect Dan could've added is HS OF'er Zac Veen.

I will only share this bit on Asa Lacy: 

 

That is a good article from Dan Connolly. In this draft, I really like Lacy a lot and would be just fine with him at #2. Though I would slightly prefer Martin if Tork is gone. Not much wear and tear this year, which is not the norm for college juniors who are Friday night starters. 
 

Regarding Veen, I guess maybe DC thinks the O’s will be conservative here and not go HS based on the limited data. I like Veen a lot, from what I have seen and heard. Some of my Scorpions friends tell me he is the real deal with a ton of upside still. But there is a considerable amount of risk there, and none of us want to see the Orioles blow this pick. Not with Martin, Tork, or Lacy there. He could save money for picks 30/39, sure. But he may be giving away a championship caliber player in Tork, Martin or Lacy. Gonzalez is such a wildcard, and he would be a ballsy pick for Elias when he could have taken the other three. Gonzalez might be a legit hitter with more power than most think, but Elias has better be right if he takes him to save money. He would have to be Altuve without the plus speed for this pick to work for me. 

[WI O’s Fan]

Here are the scouting reports of two similar players.  Both are 6’ 180.  Both played infield and play in SEC.   Great comparison.

Player A              Player B

hit  60                  65

power 50             50

Run 50                 55

arm 55                 50

Field 50               55

overall 55            60

.

player A    Alex Bregman

player B     Austin Martin

 

 

 

 

[Greg Pappas]

The latest mock from Jonathan Mayo... https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-3?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Quote

We’re one week away from the Draft (June 10-11 on MLB Network/ESPN) and there’s still no change at the very top. The top four remains the same from my mock two weeks ago and Jim Callis’ last week. I switched things up a little bit after that, but the top 10 names seem to be holding steady.

There continues to be some buzz about deals being cut at the top of the first round (with teams looking to save some of their bonus pool for other picks), but that’s an annual tradition that rarely ever plays out. After that, it gets a little grey, especially as we get near the end of the first round where there’s a deep pool of college right-handers that are somewhat interchangeable.

1. Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
No change at the top. He’s still atop the board and there's no reason to project any different pick for the Tigers.

2. Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt
There is a lot of scuttlebutt around New Mexico State’s Nick Gonzales or Florida prep standout Zac Veen going here in a deal, but it’s not strong enough to stray from the the top pure hitter in the class.

3. Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
The top three stays the same; Lacy had separated himself a bit as the top arm in the class and all signs point to the Marlins going that route.

4. Royals: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
It’s been all about the bats here, with Gonzales still in the lead for me, narrowly over Veen.

5. Blue Jays: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
This could come down to more of a certainty with the college arm in Meyer or the upside of Veen’s bat.

 

 

[Greg Pappas]

The great draft analyst Jim Callis, of MLB.com, was just on 105.7 FM, the Fan.  He reiterated that it's 50/50 between taking Martin and taking a discounted position player, like Gonzalez or Veen.  He doesn't hear anything about the O's having interest in Lacy or any other pitcher at #2.