Has Barry Zito's Contract Had Any Effect on the Current Free Agent Market?

[Sanfran327]

Just an open question to the OH. What do you think? I'm not sure there is a right or wrong answer, but I'm looking for your reasons as to why/why not.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not sure "any effect" is the right phrasing - it probably had SOME (i.e., any offer that comes after Zito with Zito-like factors isn't coming out of the blue - the familiar is always more palatable than the unfamiliar.)

I'm going to answer No, with the qualification that I don't think it's true it had "no" effect, but that the effect was minimal.

[Moose Milligan]

It's hard to say...until someone says so, like "Yeah, we didn't want to give him Zito-money for fear of similar results."

Ultimately some FA moves are good, some are bad. The Sox got their value for Manny, as he lead them to two championships.

Zito turned out to be a colossal bust. I don't think anyone thought he was worth that money at all, as he had declined a bit since his Cy Young season. But I don't think anyone predicted he would be downright awful.

So it goes...

[Sports Guy]

Santana just got a similar contract and CC will as well.

So, the answer is clearly no.

One thing I do wonder is if teams are smarter about how they figure out who deserves the big deals...ie using peripherals, etc....

[Sanfran327]

Santana just got a similar contract and CC will as well.

So, the answer is clearly no.

One thing I do wonder is if teams are smarter about how they figure out who deserves the big deals...ie using peripherals, etc....

Do you frequently talk to hear your own voice?

I don't understand how this is "clearly" no. If anything, I'd say that if Santana's deal was LESS then you could say clearly "no."

[Sports Guy]

Do you frequently talk to hear your own voice?

I don't understand how this is "clearly" no. If anything, I'd say that if Santana's deal was LESS then you could say clearly "no."

There isn't one shred of evidence that says it has effected anything.

There have been awful contracts over the years...tons of them.

They didn't change anything...Why on earth should we think Zito's will? Because you want to believe it because this is your poll and your quest to get people to agree with you?

[Sanfran327]

There isn't one shred of evidence that says it has effected anything.

There have been awful contracts over the years...tons of them.

They didn't change anything...Why on earth should we think Zito's will? Because you want to believe it because this is your poll and your quest to get people to agree with you?

I don't think I necessarily have the right answer. I'm waiting for someone to say something that will definitively change my mind though. "The answer is clearly no" certainly doesn't. That's just picking an answer.

[Migrant Redbird]

.... I'm going to answer No, with the qualification that I don't think it's true it had "no" effect, but that the effect was minimal.

I think the effect was minimal too, but I still answered "yes". The poll didn't offer any opportunity for shades of gray.

I believe it had to have a definite effect, because it illustrated once again how risky it is to give multi-year contracts to pitchers. However, there were already plenty of examples, so it seems to be a difficult lesson for GMs to learn. The pressure to win is enormous, so there almost always seems to be some team willing to go out on a limb and offer a multi-year contract to pitchers who seem like they might make a difference. Witness not only Zito, but the Mariners with Silva this year and the Brewers with Suppan a year earlier. However, Scott Boras was unable to get Kyle Lohse the 5 year/$50M contract he wanted (Kyle has more than earned his $4.25M he's getting this year) and I have to believe that the Zito affair is one of the reasons. I'm sure that Boras had plenty of spreadsheets proving how much better Lohse was than his 63-74 career record indicated (he was 3-0 down the stretch with the Phillies last year), but the GMs weren't buying it.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think I necessarily have the right answer. I'm waiting for someone to say something that will definitively change my mind though. "The answer is clearly no" certainly doesn't. That's just picking an answer.

Why would your mind have any other answer but no?

What shred of evidence do you have that it has had an effect on things?

[Sanfran327]

Why would your mind have any other answer but no?

What shred of evidence do you have that it has had an effect on things?

If you think that ANY good pitcher is going to get less money than Zito, you're mistaken. I said this in another thread, but you don't think Santana looked at Zito's deal and thought, "I'm way better than that guy. If I don't get at least what he's making, I'm not gonna sign a damn thing!"

Sabathia will be the same thing. He will get MORE than Zito's contract, mark my words. I say this because Zito's has become the contract against which all future pitchers' is to be measured. NO successful pitcher will ever earn less than him. MAYbe in years, but not in dollars per year.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Did Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle have effects on the free agent market?

Kevin Brown?

Scott Erickson?

Hell, all the way back to Wayne Garland?

[BaltimoreTerp]

If you think that ANY good pitcher is going to get less money than Zito, you're mistaken. I said this in another thread, but you don't think Santana looked at Zito's deal and thought, "I'm way better than that guy. If I don't get at least what he's making, I'm not gonna sign a damn thing!"

Sabathia will be the same thing. He will get MORE than Zito's contract, mark my words. I say this because Zito's has become the contract against which all future pitchers' is to be measured. NO successful pitcher will ever earn less than him. MAYbe in years, but not in dollars per year.

You do realize that SG is agreeing with you, right?

[Sanfran327]

You do realize that SG is agreeing with you, right?

How so? We have different opinions...

[TyCobb]

Yes. I think it would be harder for teams to put that much risk into one player (besides the Yankees since they have an unlimited amount of cash). I also don't see 7 year contracts for pitchers been thrown out there anymore.

Santana has been consider the best pitcher in baseball for the past 3 years when he signed the contract. Plus the Santana deal is really 6/137.5. No way the 7th year is picked up. Zito got 7/126 since there is no way his contract gets picked up.

I think CC will be looking at 5 year offers with club options for the 6th.

[BaltimoreTerp]

How so? We have different opinions...

You are both saying that Zito's contract is not and will not have an effect on the free-agent market.

Unless I'm really misreading something.