A couple of thoughts about our current catchers and Adley Rutschman

[Frobby]

Assuming we do draft Adley Rutschman next Monday, lots of questions arise concerning the three catchers on our 40-man roster, two of whom are under control for 6 years and the other for 5.

My first question is, which one is best suited to be the back-up catcher long term?    Assuming that’s the role, does the balance of offense vs. defense shift?    Do other factors come into play more for the backup C than a starting C?

My second question is, can we get Severino to the point where he has some trade value?     He’s been worth 0.4 rWAR playing in only 26 games, and his OPS remains over .800.    That’s a fluke and it will come down, but it strikes me that he’s showing he’s capable of being a decent starting C.    He has the arm, and a good presence behind the plate.   If the hitting doesn’t completely collapse, is this a guy that a team that’s weak at C might covet and give up some actual prospects to obtain?   Do we trade him this year while he has the most service time left, or do we start him all year and try to build his perceived value, remembering that he was on the waiver wire two months ago?

My third question is, how must Chance Sisco be feeling right about now?    High draft pick, led his leagues in batting a couple of times, played at every level of our system, top 100 prospect, struggled in his first taste of the majors, sent down at the end of spring training with the last-minute pickup of Severino, hitting very well in AAA but can’t get called up right now.    And now you have the potential Rutschman pick staring you in the face.    Ouch!!!!!

[wildcard]

If Rutschman is the O's pick, he will not make the majors until sometime in 2021.

Severino will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2020 season.  He is a good defensive catcher and  is only 25.   He could be part of the O's next contending team.  We will have to see a lot more of him to know if he can build any trade value.   His history is good defensively with no bat.   That would not bring back much as a trade chip.

Sisco is probably thinking that there are 29 other teams and he may get his chance elsewhere long term.

Wynn is 28 and will be 30 by the time Rutschman is in the majors.   He is not a long term Oriole.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Rutschman is the O's pick, he will not make the majors until sometime in 2021.

Severino will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2020 season.  He is a good defensive catcher and  is only 25.   He could be part of the O's next contending team.  We will have to see a lot more of him to know if he can build any trade value.   His history is good defensively with no bat.   That would not bring back much as a trade chip.

Sisco is probably thinking that there are 29 other teams and he may get his chance elsewhere long term.

Wynn is 28 and will be 30 by the time Rutschman is in the majors.   He is not a long term Oriole.

Zunino and Posey were.

[DrungoHazewood]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Assuming we do draft Adley Rutschman next Monday, lots of questions arise concerning the three catchers on our 40-man roster, two of whom are under control for 6 years and the other for 5.

My first question is, which one is best suited to be the back-up catcher long term?    Assuming that’s the role, does the balance of offense vs. defense shift?    Do other factors come into play more for the backup C than a starting C?

My second question is, can we get Severino to the point where he has some trade value?     He’s been worth 0.4 rWAR playing in only 26 games, and his OPS remains over .800.    That’s a fluke and it will come down, but it strikes me that he’s showing he’s capable of being a decent starting C.    He has the arm, and a good presence behind the plate.   If the hitting doesn’t completely collapse, is this a guy that a team that’s weak at C might covet and give up some actual prospects to obtain?   Do we trade him this year while he has the most service time left, or do we start him all year and try to build his perceived value, remembering that he was on the waiver wire two months ago?

My third question is, how must Chance Sisco be feeling right about now?    High draft pick, led his leagues in batting a couple of times, played at every level of our system, top 100 prospect, struggled in his first taste of the majors, sent down at the end of spring training with the last-minute pickup of Severino, hitting very well in AAA but can’t get called up right now.    And now you have the potential Rutschman pick staring you in the face.    Ouch!!!!!

Severino's .820 this year has been enough to raise his career MLB OPS to .620.  His last two stints with the Nats were worse than Chris Davis.  His AAA OPS is .664.  In the majors this year he's homering once every 18 PAs.  In the rest of his pro career his rate is once per 65.  He turns 26 in July.

90 PAs ago what was your assessment of his odds of becoming a valuable major league catcher?  My quick take is that if things fall into place for him he could have Sal Fasano's career.

[Frobby]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Severino's .820 this year has been enough to raise his career MLB OPS to .620.  His last two stints with the Nats were worse than Chris Davis.  His AAA OPS is .664.  In the majors this year he's homering once every 18 PAs.  In the rest of his pro career his rate is once per 65.  He turns 26 in July.

90 PAs ago what was your assessment of his odds of becoming a valuable major league catcher?  My quick take is that if things fall into place for him he could have Sal Fasano's career.

I mean, I know you are probably right.    But the guy doesn’t look like Sal Fasano.   He’s a big, strapping kid who looks like an athlete.    He looks dangerous in the batters box.  

Looking at both his MiL numbers and his Washington numbers, what really stands out is he’s been a .100 ISO guy, whereas in Baltimore he’s carrying a .233 ISO. Just looking at him, and watching his approach at the plate, I really have a hard time understanding why his ISO historically has been so low.    I mean, OK, .233 may not be sustainable, but .100?    Really? Maybe he’s figured something out in that department, because he sure looks like a guy capable of generating some power.    

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I mean, I know you are probably right.    But the guy doesn’t look like Sal Fasano.   He’s a big, strapping kid who looks like an athlete.    He looks dangerous in the batters box.  

Looking at both his MiL numbers and his Washington numbers, what really stands out is he’s been a .100 ISO guy, whereas in Baltimore he’s carrying a .233 ISO. Just looking at him, and watching his approach at the plate, I really have a hard time understanding why his ISO historically has been so low.    I mean, OK, .233 may not be sustainable, but .100?    Really? Maybe he’s figured something out in that department, because he sure looks like a guy capable of generating some power.    

Sherman Obando was a big strapping kid with power who kind of looked dangerous.

I hope Severino has figured something out.  You sometimes hear that catchers develop late.  I always thought that was an old wive's tale derived from them being hurt all the time, but why not.  He's going to have to keep hitting well above his resume for quite a while to change his trade value.

[Just Regular]

He might be around the power true talent level most helped by the way the ball is bouncing this year.  

As a young catcher, I can give him a little more of a pass on his career batting line to date than any other position - I have to imagine that in 2016 he was one of the youngest catchers to get a substantial AAA season.  I expect being in the Nationals org with their strategy of pushing kids fast when they can handle it helped with that.

In the last few minutes I've thought more about Pedro Severino than in my whole life before to date, my takeaway is he's a more formidable rival to Sisco for longer-term playing time than I realized.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

He might be around the power true talent level most helped by the way the ball is bouncing this year. 

It's early and weird things happen in small samples.  But... there are a lot of guys in the league who're putting up career power numbers.  It seems like '87 or '94.  Somebody might be this year's Wade Boggs.  For you youngins, Boggs had 118 career homers in 18 years.  24 of them in 1987, and in no other season did he reach 12.

[baltfan]

Could Sisco play second?  

[Frobby]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

It's early and weird things happen in small samples.  But... there are a lot of guys in the league who're putting up career power numbers.  It seems like '87 or '94.  Somebody might be this year's Wade Boggs.  For you youngins, Boggs had 118 career homers in 18 years.  24 of them in 1987, and in no other season did he reach 12.

I remember two years ago Brett Gardner suddenly went on a random power binge, hitting 11 in the first two months of the year.   He ended up with a career high 21, a lot for a guy with 103 homers in 12 years though not quite as extreme as the Boggs example.    

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Could Sisco play second?  

Too slow, I think.   

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Could Sisco play second?  

If it was pre-1930 and that's where teams stashed someone who could hit but was not a great (in)fielder.  Guys who'd play second today played third to field the endless numbers of deadball era bunts.

Today... no.  Biggio pulled it off, but that was weird, and he was quick/fast.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I remember two years ago Brett Gardner suddenly went on a random power binge, hitting 11 in the first two months of the year.   He ended up with a career high 21, a lot for a guy with 103 homers in 12 years though not quite as extreme as the Boggs example.    

Brian Roberts had eight of his 97 career homers in April of 2005.  That may have been the year he tried PEDs just that one time.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Assuming we do draft Adley Rutschman next Monday, lots of questions arise concerning the three catchers on our 40-man roster, two of whom are under control for 6 years and the other for 5.

My first question is, which one is best suited to be the back-up catcher long term?    Assuming that’s the role, does the balance of offense vs. defense shift?    Do other factors come into play more for the backup C than a starting C?

My second question is, can we get Severino to the point where he has some trade value?     He’s been worth 0.4 rWAR playing in only 26 games, and his OPS remains over .800.    That’s a fluke and it will come down, but it strikes me that he’s showing he’s capable of being a decent starting C.    He has the arm, and a good presence behind the plate.   If the hitting doesn’t completely collapse, is this a guy that a team that’s weak at C might covet and give up some actual prospects to obtain?   Do we trade him this year while he has the most service time left, or do we start him all year and try to build his perceived value, remembering that he was on the waiver wire two months ago?

My third question is, how must Chance Sisco be feeling right about now?    High draft pick, led his leagues in batting a couple of times, played at every level of our system, top 100 prospect, struggled in his first taste of the majors, sent down at the end of spring training with the last-minute pickup of Severino, hitting very well in AAA but can’t get called up right now.    And now you have the potential Rutschman pick staring you in the face.    Ouch!!!!!

Severino is suited to be a good backup catcher.  But by the time Rutschman gets to Baltimore, the backup catcher might not be on the roster right now.  Significant possibility.

I think he'd have a small amount of trade value unless the hitting is for real.  Keep in mind the Moose Milligan Trade Corollary™ where you have to take the position of an opposing GM while evaluating the Orioles roster.  What would you give up for a backup catcher?  You said it yourself, he was a waiver wire claim two months ago.  We're not the only ones who know that.

Don't care at all about how Chance Sisco is feeling right now.  

[tntoriole]

If Sisco continues to develop, get him some big league time to showcase him and then you pick Rutschman and you trade Sisco.