Orioles call up D.J. Stewart

[webbrick2010]

I guess I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing.

I've seen at least two guys score from first on a double to RF ( not even a play at the plate), and I saw him almost overrun and then fall down backwards catching a pop up down the RF line yesterday. Doesn't look anything like a ML outfielder to me.

[ChuckS]

18 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I guess I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing.

I've seen at least two guys score from first on a double to RF ( not even a play at the plate), and I saw him almost overrun and then fall down backwards catching a pop up down the RF line yesterday. Doesn't look anything like a ML outfielder to me.

There were nothing wrong with his relay throws on those plays.  That catch yesterday was awkward but at least he had the speed to get to the ball and then readjust back.  I'm not sure Mancini or DSJ would have gotten there for example.  Not without having to lay out.  

His jumps look good and he's got above average sprint speed.  Solid average for a corner OF. 

The standards for defense are too high on this board.  I've often seen the attitude of, unless you are plus out there you are a DH.  I don't think some of you understand what average defense looks like.  I wouldn't be surprised if DJ puts up some positive DWAR #'s in the corners.  Especially in LF where I think his arm plays best. 

[Tony-OH]

On 5/28/2019 at 1:58 PM, wildcard said:

From Orioles.com

Orioles #15 prospect

From this I would say the best thing about Stewart is his ability at the plate.  I don't expect a lot in the field.  I hope he is better than advertised.

 

You still are quoting from MLB pipeline around here? 

 

[Tony-OH]

On 5/29/2019 at 8:05 AM, foxfield said:

I am not, repeat not, a military expert or veteran.  But I believe that throwing a hand grenade through a pane glass window from 100 feet would rate as a very strong arm. 

As someone who has thrown grenades, yes, that would be a pretty strong arm. Saying that, i threw one so far in basic training the big giant voice over the range squawked "Nice throw lane 4".

As for Stewart's arm, it not great, but it's not awful. He's probably a hair better than Smith jr. in that regard. I think some underrate his defense as a whole as well. He's not pretty out there, but I'm betting when it's all said and done Stewart will be an average defensive outfielder from an Outs above average (OOA) and catch percentage added (C%add) wise which are the two defensive metrics I use when determining an outfielder's ability over any other defensive metric or stat.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

There were nothing wrong with his relay throws on those plays.  That catch yesterday was awkward but at least he had the speed to get to the ball and then readjust back.  I'm not sure Mancini or DSJ would have gotten there for example.  Not without having to lay out.  

His jumps look good and he's got above average sprint speed.  Solid average for a corner OF. 

The standards for defense are too high on this board.  I've often seen the attitude of, unless you are plus out there you are a DH.  I don't think some of you understand what average defense looks like.  I wouldn't be surprised if DJ puts up some positive DWAR #'s in the corners.  Especially in LF where I think his arm plays best. 

OH MY GOD AGREE

[Tony-OH]

On 5/29/2019 at 11:17 AM, Il BuonO said:

I’m more impressed with his approach. Sees a lot of pitches and looks like he has a plan.

 

On 5/29/2019 at 11:19 AM, Frobby said:

Yes, that’s impressive too.   Maybe the most disciplined hitter we’ve had since Markakis left town.   

 

On 5/29/2019 at 11:23 AM, Il BuonO said:

Very similar approach to Nick. I think Stewart has more of a tendency to pull rather than use the whole field like Markakis.

Yes. This is going to be a big part of his game and part of his offensive value. He's that guy that will typically get into deep counts, foul a bunch of pitches off, and work pitchers.

[Tony-OH]

On 5/29/2019 at 1:58 PM, Frobby said:

I don’t think of Sisco as a particularly streaky player.    Of course, all players have streaks to some degree or other.    Sisco is no different.  

I’m perfectly content to leave Sisco in Norfolk for now, get him at bats just about every day, and monitor Severino and Wynns.    Wynns has a .538 OPS right now and the team has won just 2 of the 11 games he’s started.    If he’s still posting a .538 OPS a month from now and the team is losing when he starts, and Sisco is still posting an .850 OPS, at that point I’d probably change it up.     

Wynns has been very disappointing overall this year and not just with the bat. I still rather Sisco get everyday at bats and play most games behind the plate to continue that development because right now I'm fine with Severino being the main starter.

[Tony-OH]

On 5/29/2019 at 11:46 AM, Enjoy Terror said:

Stolen Bases as a Percentage of Plate Appearances, DJ Stewart

2015	268	4	1.49%
2016	502	26	5.18%
2017	540	20	3.70%
2018	537	13	2.42%
2019	191	5	2.62%

Same stats, but SB/1B+BB+IBB+HBP (times he got on 1B) instead of PA

2015	61	4	6.56%
2016	154	26	16.88%
2017	156	20	12.82%
2018	137	13	9.49%
2019	59	5	8.47%

He could run really well in as high as AA, but either he got slower or his game changed... he's not the same guy that was 4th in the O's system in stolen bases in 2016.

But the speed is there somewhere.

Interesting stat work, but Stewart is not really going to be a base stealer at the major league level. He has 27.6 sprint speed so far which ranks him in the 63rd percentile in MLB so he's an above average runner, but I just don't see him as a base stealer at the upper levels. 

Still, a lot of people have underestimated Stewart's speed due to his body shape so you see a lot of 45's of scouting report. I was always a solid 50 with him.
 

[sportsfan8703]

I’ve been saying for years on this board, not every athlete is built like Adrian Peterson. Some are built like Eddie Lacy. Stewart is an athlete. 

[sportsfan8703]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You still are quoting from MLB pipeline around here? 

 

They did have Means in their top 30 this offseason. Haha

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

There were nothing wrong with his relay throws on those plays.  That catch yesterday was awkward but at least he had the speed to get to the ball and then readjust back.  I'm not sure Mancini or DSJ would have gotten there for example.  Not without having to lay out.  

His jumps look good and he's got above average sprint speed.  Solid average for a corner OF. 

The standards for defense are too high on this board.  I've often seen the attitude of, unless you are plus out there you are a DH.  I don't think some of you understand what average defense looks like.  I wouldn't be surprised if DJ puts up some positive DWAR #'s in the corners.  Especially in LF where I think his arm plays best. 

I believe a lot of that has to do with the eye ball test and by using defensive stats like dWAR and rtot and such. i like to use statcast stats like Outs above average and catch percentage added (C%add). They are much more accurate and in my mind are not as flawwed as these other defensive stats. 

Once I determined dWAR is standardized across all positions and not by positions, I stopped using it as a metric for players now. 

As for Stewart, he has a small sample size over last year and this year, but he's been pretty average in the outfield in the MLB:

2018: 1 - OOA. and a +3 in catch percentage added (C%add)
2019: 0 - OOA and a +3 in catch percentage added (C%add) Take with a huge grain of salt due to the SSS

[Tony-OH]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

They did have Means in their top 30 this offseason. Haha

So did we. Probably should have had him higher though. I was more bullish on him but wasn't sold until I saw the numbers on the changeup this year. I really wish i had access to the minor league trackman data. that's the holy grail for me when it comes to truly evaluating prospects.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ve been saying for years on this board, not every athlete is built like Adrian Peterson. Some are built like Eddie Lacy. Stewart is an athlete. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You still are quoting from MLB pipeline around here? 

 

What source do you recommend for minor leaguers?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I believe a lot of that has to do with the eye ball test and by using defensive stats like dWAR and rtot and such. i like to use statcast stats like Outs above average and catch percentage added (C%add). They are much more accurate and in my mind are not as flawwed as these other defensive stats. 

Once I determined dWAR is standardized across all positions and not by positions, I stopped using it as a metric for players now.

As for Stewart, he has a small sample size over last year and this year, but he's been pretty average in the outfield in the MLB:

2018: 1 - OOA. and a +3 in catch percentage added (C%add)
2019: 0 - OOA and a +3 in catch percentage added (C%add) Take with a huge grain of salt due to the SSS

If you look at the part of BB-ref that shows a player’s WAR stats, there is a column there called “Rfield.”   That is the stat that tells you how many runs a player is above or below average at his position.    The next column over is called “Rpos.”    That is the adjustment they make for the difficulty of the position you play.    So for example, Mancini has Rfield of -7 (7 runs below average at the different positions he’s played, mostly RF but a little bit of LF and 1B) and Rpos of -3 (signifying that those positions are easier than average).     You add those together to get -10 runs then multiply by a factor that is close to, but not exactly, .1 wins/run, and that gives you dWAR.     (If you used .1 for Mancini that would be -1.0; his actual dWAR is -0.9.)

So, if you want an unadjusted look at a players’ fielding from BB-ref, just look at Rfield.   Or, you can look in the fielding section of a player’s stats that shows Rtot and Rdrs.   I believe Rfield is actually the same thing as Rdrs.

One advantage the BB-ref and UZR stats have over the Statcast stats is they include throwing and, I believe, cutting off balls in the gap.   Statcasts stats are limited to measuring balls that were caught. I do like Statcast for that purpose and think it’s more accurate than the others at measuring range.