Who do you want the Orioles to pick at 1-1?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If Witt is selected, he will be hounded from draft day with questions about how he compares with Cal.

Didn’t stop us from drafting Manny.   Cal’s pretty far in the rear view mirror anyway.

I favor Rutschman but if Elias prefers Witt, so be it.   Just get me a player who turns out to be excellent.  That’s all I ask.   

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Easier to live up to.

True, but its been some time since Cal was actually here on the field playing SS.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Frobby said:

Didn’t stop us from drafting Manny.   Cal’s pretty far in the rear view mirror anyway.

I favor Rutschman but if Elias prefers Witt, so be it.   Just get me a player who turns out to be excellent.  That’s all I ask.   

AMEN

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Kinda answered your question

Playing DH significantly reduces a players value, something a stud SS/CF will never have to do

Mauer won an MVP, finished top 8 three other times and averaged 5.3 WAR per season over his six team-controlled seasons, plus another 1.4 WAR in his partial 35 game season.

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Kinda answered your question

Playing DH significantly reduces a players value, something a stud SS/CF will never have to do

From what I have read he is athletic enough to play other positions.  The difference is there are a ton of super productive shortstops and barely any super productive catchers.

Last year 16 teams got above 3 WAR out of SS only 3 got above 3 WAR out of catcher. 8 teams got 4 or more WAR out of SS zero out of catcher. 

 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Didn’t stop us from drafting Manny.   Cal’s pretty far in the rear view mirror anyway.

I favor Rutschman but if Elias prefers Witt, so be it.   Just get me a player who turns out to be excellent.  That’s all I ask.   

After pondering your first sentence.

It dawns on me that the Orioles have drafted 1 HOF SS, and most likely Manny makes #2.

It appears that SS, has been the best position drafted by this team in the last 3 decades.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Mauer won an MVP, finished top 8 three other times and averaged 5.3 WAR per season over his six team-controlled seasons, plus another 1.4 WAR in his partial 35 game season.

dang what a slacker he was. LOL

[Sydnor]

I voted Rutschman because he seems to be the safest pick, but am I crazy for preferring Abrams over Witt and potentially over Rutschman if Abrams gave a bigger discount?

[LookinUp]

Elias and Sig are two of the smartest executives in MLB. I hope they don't over think this.

[TonySoprano]

The last (and only other) time the Orioles had the 1-1 pick, the choice then was also a slam dunk.  Ben McDonald didn't end up even being the best pitcher on the staff; that was Mike Mussina.   That's not a criticism of Ben, who's still one of my all-time favorite Orioles, but yet another example of how the scouting consensus isn't exactly a crystal ball for future success.
 

Quote

The legend of Big Ben began in 1988 when, as a 20-year-old LSU sophomore, he threw 10 complete games and posted a 2.65 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. A rare underclassman selected to the U.S. Olympic team, McDonald threw two complete games in the tournament, including one against Puerto Rico in the semifinals that helped propel the Americans to a gold medal. He returned to LSU for his junior year with the presumption that, if he stayed healthy, he’d be the top overall pick the next summer.

Quote

McDonald did his part. As a junior, he was 14-4 with a 3.49 ERA and set the SEC record with 202 strikeouts in 152 innings. He pitched in 26 games, made 21 starts, threw eight complete games and three shutouts and picked up four saves in five relief outings. His fastball topped out at 101 mph, his curveball was a hammer, and he threw two other above-average pitches for strikes.

He was selected to the All-America team and won the Golden Spikes Award as the country’s best amateur.

Quote

In addition to McDonald’s sparkling résumé, the big right-hander received the highest score in the history of the Major League Scouting Bureau.

Quote

But make no mistake, his was a solid career. In parts of nine seasons, McDonald was 78-70 with a 3.91 ERA in 155 games with the Orioles and 56 with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Of the 30 first-rounders in 1989, McDonald’s career 20.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is fifth-highest, behind Hall of Famer Frank Thomas (73.9 WAR, taken seventh overall), Chuck Knoblauch, Mo Vaughn and Charles Johnson.

Quote

If it were up to him, McDonald said he’d have a tough time passing on Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, whom McDonald has seen play in consecutive College World Series. But he has also heard great things about Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.

“I guess it depends on where Mike Elias wants to go,” McDonald said. “Let’s be honest, the Orioles need as many prospects, good players as they can. It’s not like, ‘Well, we’re looking for a shortstop or we’re looking for a catcher.’ They’re looking for a little bit of everything wherever they can. You know how this draft stuff works. Mike Elias could very well cut a deal.”

Regardless, McDonald is hopeful the Orioles and Elias make the right call and get the organization headed in the right direction.

 

[MurphDogg]

I fully expect other players to have a higher WAR than Rutschman over the length of their careers, catchers simply don't last that long and former catchers don't have extraordinary value after moving from behind the plate because 1B and DH are not WAR heavy positions.

That said, the draft is about the first 6-7 MLB years, any additional years beyond that should really be discarded because by then the player could be signed as a free agent. If you believe that Adley Rutschman will be an All-Star caliber catcher from 2021-2027, then he should be the guy. I will take the narrower range and higher floor that Rutschman offers (better than average MLB catcher to perennial All-star catcher) over Witt who hasn't nearly proven himself at the level Rutschman has.

[Frobby]

Pretty good breakdown here of Rutschman vs. Witt:  https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/05/mlbpipelinecoms-jim-callis-on-the-orioles-no-1-draft-pick.html

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I fully expect other players to have a higher WAR than Rutschman over the length of their careers, catchers simply don't last that long and former catchers don't have extraordinary value after moving from behind the plate because 1B and DH are not WAR heavy positions.

That said, the draft is about the first 6-7 MLB years, any additional years beyond that should really be discarded because by then the player could be signed as a free agent. If you believe that Adley Rutschman will be an All-Star caliber catcher from 2021-2027, then he should be the guy. I will take the narrower range and higher floor that Rutschman offers (better than average MLB catcher to perennial All-star catcher) over Witt who hasn't nearly proven himself at the level Rutschman has.

Yet, he could have a star studded career like Buster or Bench?

[Redskins Rick]

35 minutes ago, weams said:

I wish we could trade down to three and four for one. 

Thats a pretty tempting idea.

[TonySoprano]

9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Yet, he could have a star studded career like Buster or Bench?

Or be Matt Wieters.