Traditional/Analytical: We're Not All Speaking the Same Language

[Greg Pappas]

As an older fellow (54) I was raised on traditional or old-fashioned statistics, such as Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI, and Stolen Bases for hitters and Wins, ERA, and Strikeouts for pitchers. Yet, we've all seen a great deal of change over the years in how people analyze and discuss baseball. WAR, wOBA, ISO, BABIP, FIP and a slew of other analytical terms have become a permanent part of our discussions. This is a good thing. However, it's unfortunate that so many of us lag behind in understanding it all. I've seen it happen quite often... Poster A and Poster B are talking about whatever the topic is. Poster A talks about what he sees when watching the game and may refer to traditional stats, while Poster B replies with talk of fWar or rWar or some other analytics terminology. There can be a disconnect.

I believe this conversational divide has and will continue to narrow over time. Some folks may be uncomfortable when certain analytics terms are referred to... it's only natural.  But, one must be willing to learn or continue to be unable to comprehend another poster's point.  I can't tell you how many times I've felt ignorant or left behind when analytics are discussed. Perhaps it's a generational thing. I imagine older posters are less inclined to discuss analytics, especially compared to younger posters who may have grown up with or accustomed to that terminology. I know some terms, but not others... so I'd say I'm moderately educated in analytics, but nowhere near well enough to hold too deep a conversation. I'm sure I'm not alone.

Perhaps some of our more educated posters would share which analytical terms are most important to them, what they mean, and why they're important to know? Links are fine, but I'd like to get your take on what these different terms mean from your point of view. This could be very helpful to those of us who'd like to learn.  

[HowAboutThat]

Ha! I’m two years older, but equally confused. Every time I think I get one stat, another one comes along. And which is more important? DRS or orUZR or UZR/150, Or range runs? It’s certainly possible to look each of those up individually and get a definition, but then you have to be able to determine which is more important and why, and which positions need which stat? I would imagine that UZR is not very important at all for catcher or first baseman, for instance

[Greg Pappas]

Just now, Philip said:

Ha! I’m two years older, but equally confused. Every time I think I get one stat, another one comes along. And which is more important? DRS or orUZR or UZR/150, Or range runs? It’s certainly possible to look each of those up individually and get a definition, but then you have to be able to determine which is more important and why, and which positions need which stat? I would imagine that UZR is not very important at all for catcher or first baseman, for instance

Yes, it can be daunting. Another issue is that some analytic terms are similar but not identical.  I go to ESPN.com and go to their stats page for the O's and see WAR. Which WAR is it? Is it fWAR, rWAR, WARP or some other variation? Why does it say Offensive WAR 13.3 and defensive WAR -8.2 and the final WAR score as 1.6? I get lost rather quickly.

[terphoopsfan]

Do like most people and just go with the stat that fit your narrative.

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yes, it can be daunting. Another issue is that some analytic terms are similar but not identical.  I go to ESPN.com and go to their stats page for the O's and see WAR. Which WAR is it? Is it fWAR, rWAR, WARP or some other variation? Why does it say Offensive WAR 13.3 and defensive WAR -8.2 and the final WAR score as 1.6? I get lost rather quickly.

I use Fangraphs because that site is easier to use and the confusion is more consistent. Adding BBR just muddies the water, which is already murky enough, thank you.

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I use Fangraphs because that site is easier to use and the confusion is more consistent. Adding BBR just muddies the water, which is already murky enough, thank you.

I love that bolded line. 

[Number5]

19 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yes, it can be daunting. Another issue is that some analytic terms are similar but not identical.  I go to ESPN.com and go to their stats page for the O's and see WAR. Which WAR is it? Is it fWAR, rWAR, WARP or some other variation? Why does it say Offensive WAR 13.3 and defensive WAR -8.2 and the final WAR score as 1.6? I get lost rather quickly.

Because the guy does exceptionally well coming in and out of the dugout.  3.5 WAR for that.  

[thezeroes]

I have looked at some/most of the new terminology and find that BA/OBP/SLG = OPS is telling on several fronts.

BA= Batting Average which is quite traditional and easy to understand

OBP = On Base Percentage This has become another NORMAL in analytics  Hit, Walks and Hit by Pitch treated equally.   Your better hitters Batting Average wise should have an On Base Percentage .100 points higher than BA.  This is telling of the amount of walks they get,which also shows they know the strike zone.

SLG = Slugging is the total of the extra base hits.  Total Bases as they get added up and divided by At Bats

That gives the On Base Plus Slugging figure or OPS.  Traditional an OPS above .800 was considered good.  1.000 was ALL-Star Caliber, .650 OPS is bad or replacement level.

You can scan the Home runs, Walks, Hits, extra base hits to see how the different elements were used to get the OPS.

[Greg Pappas]

33 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

I have looked at some/most of the new terminology and find that BA/OBP/SLG = OPS is telling on several fronts.

BA= Batting Average which is quite traditional and easy to understand

OBP = On Base Percentage This has become another NORMAL in analytics  Hit, Walks and Hit by Pitch treated equally.   Your better hitters Batting Average wise should have an On Base Percentage .100 points higher than BA.  This is telling of the amount of walks they get,which also shows they know the strike zone.

SLG = Slugging is the total of the extra base hits.  Total Bases as they get added up and divided by At Bats

That gives the On Base Plus Slugging figure or OPS.  Traditional an OPS above .800 was considered good.  1.000 was ALL-Star Caliber, .650 OPS is bad or replacement level.

You can scan the Home runs, Walks, Hits, extra base hits to see how the different elements were used to get the OPS.

Yeah, OPS is my favorite single tool to use, though it is just a part of a bigger player overview. I usually sort columns for team stats by OPS and look over to see that how many Plate Appearances before attributing too much to the result. Naturally, OPS is a hitters-only stat, but I still love it.

[Frobby]

I use OPS+ and ERA+ a lot, since they’re park adjusted and era-adjusted, which I think is important.   There are some better stats than those, but I find those to be a nice compromise between simplicity and complexity.    As to WAR, I tend to use BB-ref’s version more often, but I like to look at both.   I don’t trust fWAR for pitching at all, it’s too divorced from actual success in preventing runs and too obsessed with hypothetical three true outcome constructs — see Ubaldo’s four years as an Oriole as a prime example.

[thezeroes]

23 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yeah, OPS is my favorite single tool to use, though it is just a part of a bigger player overview. I usually sort columns for team stats by OPS and look over to see that how many Plate Appearances before attributing too much to the result. Naturally, OPS is a hitters-only stat, but I still love it.

At Baseball Reference the have OPS  for pitchers.  For each pitcher I compare to Team Average and League Average OPS to see where each individual pitcher resides.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I use OPS+ and ERA+ a lot, since they’re park adjusted and era-adjusted, which I think is important.   There are some better stats than those, but I find those to be a nice compromise between simplicity and complexity.    As to WAR, I tend to use BB-ref’s version more often, but I like to look at both.   I don’t trust fWAR for pitching at all, it’s too divorced from actual success in preventing runs and too obsessed with hypothetical three true outcome constructs — see Ubaldo’s four years as an Oriole as a prime example.

Now you're talking my language. 

I'm a big believer in OPS+ and ERA+ since it takes into account ballpark effects. And was the major reason why I didn't want the Orioles to sign Carlos Gonzalez before 2018 (or was that 2017) because he was already showing signs of decline and he got a major boost from Coors Field. 

[Satyr3206]

I agree that some of the newer stats are useful, OPS+ and ERA+, like Frobby said. Others I have no use for and don't think they are accurate at all. Like any defensive stat. Also not a big fan of spin rate or exit velocity. Even back in the stone age of baseball we knew if you spun the ball more, it broke more. And if you hit it hard it went further, faster.

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

As an older fellow (54)

You're not old for a baseball fan. The median age of the MLB tv viewing audience is 55. You're still a pup. 

[Chavez Ravine]

44 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I agree that some of the newer stats are useful, OPS+ and ERA+, like Frobby said. Others I have no use for and don't think they are accurate at all. Like any defensive stat. Also not a big fan of spin rate or exit velocity. Even back in the stone age of baseball we knew if you spun the ball more, it broke more. And if you hit it hard it went further, faster.

I don't care much for the in game presentation of Statcast data. Do I really need the exit velocity to tell me that ball was tattooed? But I can see how other folks might like it.  I think those data are far more useful as a way to describe player skill sets or as data to maybe better predict things like which free agent's skills are less likely to fall off a cliff in the next three years.