BA: 2020 International Draft?

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Upon further review I don't see any evidence supporting the idea that they do.

 

I still think that a huge streamlining of the talent acquisition will happen. 

450 players, 30 teams we are looking at 15 rounds for the Dominican Republic alone.  Less kids equals less overhead. 

While I think you're correct in thinking that the owners will see some (possibly significant) residual savings from an international draft, there are quite a few upsides to this situation.  Fewer "handlers" taking bonus money from players.  More overall transparancy in the talent acquisition process.  These are net benefits to the players.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

While I think you're correct in thinking that the owners will see some (possibly significant) residual savings from an international draft, there are quite a few upsides to this situation.  Fewer "handlers" taking bonus money from players.  More overall transparancy in the talent acquisition process.  These are net benefits to the players.

https://www.643sportsmgmt.com/2018/01/28/insta-analysis-puerto-rico-the-mlb-️-draft-1989-2017/

Quote

PR was included in the draft at a time when the island was thriving with elite MLB talent.  Several homegrown MLB players signed as free agents prior to 1989 and where established MLB players, if not stars, at some point in their career.  Some notable players in this group where Iván Rodríguez, Edgar Martínez, and Roberto Alomar, among others.  In graph 1-1 there are 6 players who ended their careers with a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) between 30-68.  All 6 started began their MLB Careers between 1988-1992.

In the 29 years since the draft began in PR there have been 625 players drafted from a PR High School or, in rare cases, a PR College.   One player (Recently Retired & Future 1st ballot HOF Carlos Beltrán) had a WAR above 46 at 69.9.  Additionally, 3 drafted players (Javier Vázquez, Yadier Molina & Alex Ríos) finished their careers (Except for Yadi who continues to carve an amazing Career) with Career WAR over 27.6

Obviously a resurgence has happened in the last few years and things are finally moving back to the pre-draft level.

 

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://www.643sportsmgmt.com/2018/01/28/insta-analysis-puerto-rico-the-mlb-️-draft-1989-2017/

Obviously a resurgence has happened in the last few years and things are finally moving back to the pre-draft level.

 

That's interesting.  You think that talent will just dry up if the current system falls apart?  There's always the possibility that the handlers are actually providing a useful service, in terms of training kids to play ball, and promoting baseball as a useful career skill to elite talents.

[Tryptamine]

Yup the owners really needed more money and at the cost of the kids who almost definitely wont ever sniff even 1% of the owner's wealth. Anything and every to make sure the free market system doesn't exist in any form.

[Frobby]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

Yup the owners really needed more money and at the cost of the kids who almost definitely wont ever sniff even 1% of the owner's wealth. Anything and every to make sure the free market system doesn't exist in any form.

There’s not a free market system now.    It’s sort of a modified version of a fantasy league auction, with total spending capped.   

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Hallas said:

That's interesting.  You think that talent will just dry up if the current system falls apart?  There's always the possibility that the handlers are actually providing a useful service, in terms of training kids to play ball, and promoting baseball as a useful career skill to elite talents.

I think a dip will happen.  How big and for how long I can't say. 

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think a dip will happen.  How big and for how long I can't say. 

Part of me also thinks that the reason the talent pool is coming back is because the money being thrown around the first year player draft is hitting critical mass.  Chipper Jones was 1:1 in the 1990 draft, and he signed for 275K. Compare that to AR's 8.1M signing bonus, almost 30x higher.  The median MLB salary increased only about 9-fold in that same time frame. (~578K vs 4.52M)  If you throw enough money at the international draft, the talent will stick around.

[VaBird1]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Maybe I don’t understand their system.   Do players currently go to these academies before they’ve been signed by a club?    

The people that I knew were on the team and had an ID card that allowed them to gain entrance.  I can’t imagine they got much money, but they had the facilities and coaching available to them.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Part of me also thinks that the reason the talent pool is coming back is because the money being thrown around the first year player draft is hitting critical mass.  Chipper Jones was 1:1 in the 1990 draft, and he signed for 275K. Compare that to AR's 8.1M signing bonus, almost 30x higher.  The median MLB salary increased only about 9-fold in that same time frame. (~578K vs 4.52M)  If you throw enough money at the international draft, the talent will stick around.

Do you think ownership cares if that happens?

[Chavez Ravine]

I thought this article was a pretty succinct summary of the history and current state of the system (at least in much of Latin America).

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-03-25/promise-and-peril-dominican-baseball-pipeline

The article cites a statistic that 3-5% of Dominicans who sign in the J2 period ever make it to the majors. That contrasts with this estimate from BA that 17.6% of drafted and signed players make it to the majors. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/

That definitely suggests there is some "inefficiency" that would go away with an international draft.

It is an interesting question what would happen to the Buscone  system under a draft. But on the face of it, a draft seems far more about saving owners money (fewer academies, fewer commitments to 17 year olds, less relationship building)  than about reducing the exploitation of poor people and children.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

The article cites a statistic that 3-5% of Dominicans who sign in the J2 period ever make it to the majors.

And this is why I find the idea that relationship building is more important to these kids than money is not believable in most cases.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Yup the owners really needed more money and at the cost of the kids who almost definitely wont ever sniff even 1% of the owner's wealth. Anything and every to make sure the free market system doesn't exist in any form.

The current system only benefits those who game  the system or break rules without getting caught. The kids don't keep anymore money. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And this is why I find the idea that relationship building is more important to these kids than money is not believable in most cases.

Relationship building is like a booster system for college football. The kids are under contract, they just never sign anything. But the families are definitely taken care of. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Relationship building is like a booster system for college football. The kids are under contract, they just never sign anything. But the families are definitely taken care of. 

I'm sure it's costing the teams hundreds of dollars.

[weams]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure it's costing the teams hundreds of dollars.

The prospect is COMMITTED to signing at age 16.