BA: 2020 International Draft?

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think ownership cares if that happens?

Well yes, if they care about acquiring top talent.  They still want to win.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Well yes, if they care about acquiring top talent.  They still want to win.

I'm not so sure.  I don't think they care how much talent comes out of the international market as long as it's a fairly equitable split. 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not so sure.  I don't think they care how much talent comes out of the international market as long as it's a fairly equitable split. 

When you cut yourself do you see the cynicism oozing from the wound?

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think ownership cares if that happens?

If MLB cuts the total amount of money available to international talent, and caps the high-end guys more then the players will just go to the other high-level baseball leagues competing with them.  Oh wait...

I do think that this will benefit the Asian leagues in at least a small way.  There will be a handful of players who decide they can get more money and opportunities in Japan, Korea, Taiwan.  And if they're good they can get posted or be free agents in their mid-20s, depending on country.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I thought this article was a pretty succinct summary of the history and current state of the system (at least in much of Latin America).

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-03-25/promise-and-peril-dominican-baseball-pipeline

The article cites a statistic that 3-5% of Dominicans who sign in the J2 period ever make it to the majors. That contrasts with this estimate from BA that 17.6% of drafted and signed players make it to the majors. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/

That definitely suggests there is some "inefficiency" that would go away with an international draft.

It is an interesting question what would happen to the Buscone  system under a draft. But on the face of it, a draft seems far more about saving owners money (fewer academies, fewer commitments to 17 year olds, less relationship building)  than about reducing the exploitation of poor people and children.

I want to know what the breakdown is in the draft between 17-18 year olds and older players.  My guess, and I don't know this, is that the younger you are the more uncertainty about your talent level and how it will develop.  Again, totally guessing, but if the overall rate is 18% making the majors, I'd guess 17-18 year olds would be more like 10%. 

I think if there was no college baseball and you drafted everyone out of high school the success rate in the draft would go down noticeably.  The international market is full of kids who wouldn't even be out of high school yet.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If MLB cuts the total amount of money available to international talent, and caps the high-end guys more then the players will just go to the other high-level baseball leagues competing with them.  Oh wait...

I do think that this will benefit the Asian leagues in at least a small way.  There will be a handful of players who decide they can get more money and opportunities in Japan, Korea, Taiwan.  And if they're good they can get posted or be free agents in their mid-20s, depending on country.

But the Asian leagues cap foreign involvement.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not so sure.  I don't think they care how much talent comes out of the international market as long as it's a fairly equitable split. 

I think MLB would be fine with a 1920 talent level just so long as they're profitable and have a shot at their piece of the pool.  If MLB's talent level regressed to a Babe Ruth era level over a decade or two the only people who'd really notice would a niche of sabr guys running obscure studies.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But the Asian leagues cap foreign involvement.

They'd find ways to get more quality talent on board if the opportunity presented itself.  Instead of signing AAA guys they might sign higher end Dominican at 18 or a $million or two, cultivate the talent, wait a few years, then post and sell to the majors for many $millions.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They'd find ways to get more quality talent on board if the opportunity presented itself.  Instead of signing AAA guys they might sign higher end Dominican at 18 or a $million or two, cultivate the talent, wait a few years, then post and sell to the majors for many $millions.

They could do that now and don't.  That Boras client is an exception.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could do that now and don't.  That Nora's client is an exception.

The more MLB clamps down on money and the ability to sign where you want, the more players that'll try to go somewhere else.  If 1st round international draft slot is $1M, and some of those guys get $3-5 now they might test out the Asian market. 

Could be a small number, could be more.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

The article cites a statistic that 3-5% of Dominicans who sign in the J2 period ever make it to the majors. That contrasts with this estimate from BA that 17.6% of drafted and signed players make it to the majors.

 

53 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I want to know what the breakdown is in the draft between 17-18 year olds and older players.  My guess, and I don't know this, is that the younger you are the more uncertainty about your talent level and how it will develop.  Again, totally guessing, but if the overall rate is 18% making the majors, I'd guess 17-18 year olds would be more like 10%. 

https://d1baseball.com/analysis/mlb-draft-study-1996-2011/

This doesn’t give exact percentages for the draft overall, but you’re certainly right that college draft picks make it to the majors more often than high school picks do.    

As to the J2 players, my guess is that the cost of signing and training the kids at the bottom of the pool is way lower than the cost of signing and training players in the US.    So, there’s a lot of chaff there.   

[weams]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

https://d1baseball.com/analysis/mlb-draft-study-1996-2011/

This doesn’t give exact percentages for the draft overall, but you’re certainly right that college draft picks make it to the majors more often than high school picks do.    

As to the J2 players, my guess is that the cost of signing and training the kids at the bottom of the pool is way lower than the cost of signing and training players in the US.    So, there’s a lot of chaff there.   

Thank you.

[George Zuverink]

Haven't read this entire thread, but I would be concerned about one potential consequence in Latin America. As corrupt and inefficient as it is, money is being spent to develop young baseball talent in poor countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.  Will these kids be able to afford to play as much as they'd need to? Less of an issue in Cuba, where the state provides support, and Japan, where the economy is strong.

[Chavez Ravine]

2 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

Haven't read this entire thread, but I would be concerned about one potential consequence in Latin America. As corrupt and inefficient as it is, money is being spent to develop young baseball talent in poor countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.  Will these kids be able to afford to play as much as they'd need to? Less of an issue in Cuba, where the state provides support, and Japan, where the economy is strong.

Yes, that is one of the concerns and the case of Puerto Rico is the main evidence. Because of the uncertainty in evaluating the talent of such young players (and perhaps for some less savory reasons) MLB teams sign more players and invest more in good coaches and facilities than they otherwise would. I think the fear is that a draft would reduce that development infrastructure and concentrate the bonus payments in fewer signed players. At the same time, the current informal youth baseball system (the problematic buscones) would still exist since they are the only option in many countries. Of course, things may not play out exactly like that, and the devil is in the details. There probably is a solution based around a draft  that improves youth baseball in positive ways. But I think for that to happen a draft would need to be part of a more comprehensive set of changes. Maybe more direct educational investment by MLB? MLB has made some important strides at being a better partner in the countries where they operate. So it could happen.

[Tryptamine]

16 hours ago, weams said:

The current system only benefits those who game  the system or break rules without getting caught. The kids don't keep anymore money. 

I think you're kidding yourself if you think the handlers are just going to disappear. The kids still need some place to practice, access to gear, exposure to MLB scouts. The handlers can provide all of that.