Trusting Elias' Plan

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Trusting that our new 'GM' Mike Elias is working towards a well-devised plan is not the same as wearing orange-colored glasses.  Whether it's posters here or Twitter, or elsewhere, some feel the lack of trade progress and/or lack of signing free agents this past offseason is a sign that Elias has been ineffective (or worse).   I believe it was a good call bringing in Elias, as did most industry writers, bloggers, fans, etc.  That hasn't changed for me... not one bit. 

Elias was hired in November and needed to overhaul many aspects of this poorly-run organization.  He was, and still is, understaffed, but is quite prudently taking his time bringing in the right people to fill these positions. Hiring Sig Mejdal was a home run, and the early returns on Koby Perez look very promising.  Elias is wearing multiple hats, so to speak, as he felt the need to be the de facto Director of Scouting for this season, rather than rush to hire someone he didn't really want to.

There is a long way to go to get where Elias and Sig want to be, from filling the aforementioned hires (both off-field and on), to improving our scouting and development departments, to improving our efforts to establish a strong International presence, and to further implement always-evolving analytics.  Elias wasn't given a whole lot to work with, but with his background of success in St. Louis and Houston, I believe he's doing all he can to have this franchise trending up.  I trust that Elias' plan is coming along, slowly, but I'm going to give him the time he needs to enact it.  The moment I believe his plan appears flawed or he makes a series of poor decisions, I'll be the first to speak up about it... as I always have.  I think that's fair. 

Does anyone else feel as I do?

I believe he has to be given a fair chance. 

[Greg Pappas]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with everything but this.  The farm system has quite a bit to work with when he got here.  Rodriguez and DL Hall are projected a TOR rotation starter.  Means  should be part on that winning team.   Lowther, Kremer Rom, Wells, Sedlock, Knight, Akin could develop into back end starters.   Harvey and Tate could be good relievers.   Not all will make it but there is quite a bit to work with there.

I also think the Mancini, Santander, Nunez, Hays, Diaz  and maybe Severino are piece that may be around when the O's are a winning team again.

True, the farm has some very good prospects and was probably about middle of the pack.  If you asked most experts where this franchise ranked in overall talent when Elias was hired, they'd quite likely say near the bottom in comparison to the rest of the league.  That's why I worded it the way I did. There are some pieces to work with, but just not as many as most teams.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

True, the farm has some very good prospects and was probably about middle of the pack.  If you asked most experts where this franchise ranked in overall talent when Elias was hired, they'd quite likely say near the bottom in comparison to the rest of the league.  That's why I worded it the way I did. There are some pieces to work with, but just not as many as most teams.

I agree.    He inherited the worst major league team in baseball, which had already traded away most of its saleable players last July, and a farm system ranked 22nd by BA and in the bottom third by most other sources.  So, that’s not to say he had nothing to work with, but he had comparatively little.     And, while I have hopes vested in every single player wildcard mentioned in his post and more, experience teaches that many (and probably most) prospects never meet the hopes you have vested in them.   I’m crossing my fingers that at least some of them will.    And that does depend to some extent on how Elias’ team does on the development side.    So, we’ll see.

[weams]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Still very good starters to work with.

Not sure we have anyone who projects as a 1.  A three is darned good. 

[scOtt]

22 minutes ago, weams said:

Not sure we have anyone who projects as a 1.  A three is darned good. 

Grow the 3's. Buy the 1's.

[interloper]

I trust Elias. I don't know if I fully trust the Angelos brothers just yet but I'm willing to give it a few years.

Unfortunately we didn't get a chance to learn much with the quiet deadline. The approach to prospects seems deliberate to a fault which I think is probably the right move, but we'll learn more about that in these last two months. 

On the other hand so many guys are once again playing out of position, Davis is still here, and there's still lots of work to be done with analytics and technology upgrades. 

I'm thrilled with the international effort thus far. Thrilled.

I love the staff he's put in place with Hyde, Holt, the young coaches in the minors, Sig, Perez, demoting Brady, etc.

[maybenxtyr]

He will earn my ever loving trust once he releases Davis.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

He will earn my ever loving trust once he releases Davis.

I really think that's what is holding most folks back right now. 

I remember when MacPhail cut Gibbons and ate, what, $8 million or something? He was god status with fans for months after that. Seems like a laughable amount now.

[Frobby]

Another thing: I will judge Elias more critically next year.    He was hired relatively late, didn’t have a chance to hire staff at the time that’s typically done, needs time to build up both his staff and the infrastructure required to fully incorporate analytics, etc.    Just an awful lot on his plate in year one and starting at an awkward time of year.    But this fall, he’ll have a totally normal offseason situation, plenty of time to make hires of guys coming off their contracts, be much more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, etc.    So, I will expect more of him in the cycle that begins this October than I did in last year’s cycle.   

[maybenxtyr]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

I really think that's what is holding most folks back right now. 

I remember when MacPhail cut Gibbons and ate, what, $8 million or something? He was god status with fans for months after that. Seems like a laughable amount now.

I was partially joking... however, I don't believe that the team will ever be able to "gel", or move forward in any way while Davis is still on the roster. 

[Greg Pappas]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Another thing: I will judge Elias more critically next year.    He was hired relatively late, didn’t have a chance to hire staff at the time that’s typically done, needs time to build up both his staff and the infrastructure required to fully incorporate analytics, etc.    Just an awful lot on his plate in year one and starting at an awkward time of year.    But this fall, he’ll have a totally normal offseason situation, plenty of time to make hires of guys coming off their contracts, be much more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, etc.    So, I will expect more of him in the cycle that begins this October than I did in last year’s cycle.   

That's fair and I feel most would agree. It's going to be interesting, sincerely interesting to see this thing develop.  I imagine we'll see a new scouting director, among numerous hires this off-season.  It's not certain that Elias will make that hire, but I seem to recall him alluding to it before.  Anyway, I'm really looking forward to watching the rest of the season and certainly this off-season to see what transpires.

[sportsfan8703]

What worries me about offseason one and year one, is how late everyone was hired. I’m hoping that Elias will bring in more of his people. I don’t think he had the time to last year.

Sig and Perez were more important than hiring an mlb staff. I want to see resources go into improved facilities in the DR, hiring more scouts/FO types/Development guys. Stepping up our technologies at our milb facilities for analytics. 

[esmd]

You're always going to have the people on social media (and some on here, but more so on the former) that want instant gratification and aren't going to be happy unless they see lots of wins from the team on the field.  They're not looking at the signs that the team has a solid long-term plan and has put it into motion, they're not looking at the Orioles no longer being referred to as clueless or behind the times, they're not looking at the international strides, they're not looking at the developmental changes.  They just see a lot of L's, so they're going to think that it's the same old, same old.

I agree with your post that this team is headed in the right direction.  How long it takes and whether they can achieve the ultimate goal is obviously not a foregone conclusion, but I like what I've seen since Elias' hiring.

[jerios55]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree.    He inherited the worst major league team in baseball, which had already traded away most of its saleable players last July, and a farm system ranked 22nd by BA and in the bottom third by most other sources.  So, that’s not to say he had nothing to work with, but he had comparatively little.     And, while I have hopes vested in every single player wildcard mentioned in his post and more, experience teaches that many (and probably most) prospects never meet the hopes you have vested in them.   I’m crossing my fingers that at least some of them will.    And that does depend to some extent on how Elias’ team does on the development side.    So, we’ll see.

And near zero international efforts.

The jump from 22 to 8, was helped by Rutschman, but others made improvements.  Are they analytics based, coaching changes, philosphy changes?  I'm sure a bit several areas.  And we'll start hearing more and more as players continue to progress.  I think for years we had better guys in the minors and just did a poor job of consistently developing them.  Sometimes I find it amazing how many ex-Orioles are doing well on other teams (although maybe that happens to all teams...?)

[Es4M11]

16 hours ago, weams said:

Not sure we have anyone who projects as a 1.  A three is darned good. 

Maybe Hall can be that #1? If he can control the walks maybe a 3 is his floor?