Trusting Elias' Plan

[AceKing]

FOCUS ON PLAYER (PITCHER) DEVELOPMENT PLEASE.

[Orsulak4Prez]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Another thing: I will judge Elias more critically next year.    He was hired relatively late, didn’t have a chance to hire staff at the time that’s typically done, needs time to build up both his staff and the infrastructure required to fully incorporate analytics, etc.    Just an awful lot on his plate in year one and starting at an awkward time of year.    But this fall, he’ll have a totally normal offseason situation, plenty of time to make hires of guys coming off their contracts, be much more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, etc.    So, I will expect more of him in the cycle that begins this October than I did in last year’s cycle.   

I think this is a good point. I almost look at this as year zero of the rebuild. I like pretty much everything the new regime has done so far.

[LookinUp]

The Astros have Verlander, Cole and Grienke. They traded for all of those guys. We're so far away from having the system that can continue to have top shelf talent that is desired in those types of trades. That's not a knock on Elias, just a note that this thing will take time. We're looking at 2-3 years before a lot of the first year of DSL guys are even known within our system. That is when our pipeline will start to get close to full maturity. 

With that said, we have future contributors in a lot of places already. There's no reason, in my mind, to think that the 2020 O's have to be terrible and the 2021 O's can't be .500 ish.

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, scOtt said:

Grow the 3's. Buy the 1's.

Grow them, but then please keep them..

Man, if we trade any young pitching in the next three years, I am going to scream. 

[atomic]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree.    He inherited the worst major league team in baseball, which had already traded away most of its saleable players last July, and a farm system ranked 22nd by BA and in the bottom third by most other sources.  So, that’s not to say he had nothing to work with, but he had comparatively little.     And, while I have hopes vested in every single player wildcard mentioned in his post and more, experience teaches that many (and probably most) prospects never meet the hopes you have vested in them.   I’m crossing my fingers that at least some of them will.    And that does depend to some extent on how Elias’ team does on the development side.    So, we’ll see.

THe farm system is now ranked 8th and that is from DD.  The only addition that is making the team better is a guy everyone would have drafted. I think DD did not leave the team with comparatively little.  He left Elias with 4 guys currently ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America.  And some other solid guys like Hays, Kremer, Akin and Stewart. 

[tntoriole]

I love the plan and the analytics, etc.  but then sometimes you gotta love Billy Beane...man, I wish we had done this just for the romance. 

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/a-s-sign-pitcher-who-dazzled-at-in-stadium-radar-booth?partnerId=ed-14230490-1158319273

 

 

[Dipper9]

I trust Elias' plan and agree with keeping guys down to develop.

However, if they expect fans to keep buying season tickets, or to even show up at games for the next couple years, one of two things has to happen:

1. Start bringing up some of the prospects and let them learn on the Major League level.  Even if they haven't earned it quite yet; or 

2. Spend a little bit of money to sign aging veterans to one year deals.  Guys that have proven to be effective but won't demand multi-year deals that block the team's development.  There were several of these types of players available this offseason that would have at least made games semi-entertaining, rather than running out numerous Quad A players who struggle to hit .200.  

As I said, I "get it" that we're gonna stink for a few years, and I'm okay with that.  But the organization has to give the fans, especially season ticket holders, SOMETHING to get excited about going to OPACY.  Otherwise we might as well become Minor League ticket holders for the next few years and really have an empty stadium.  

[weams]

4 hours ago, AceKing said:

FOCUS ON PLAYER (PITCHER) DEVELOPMENT PLEASE.

No need to shout. You need the raw materials. You are not gonna make an ace out of someone with a three ceiling. A guy won't hit without a hit tool. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Dipper9 said:

I trust Elias' plan and agree with keeping guys down to develop.

 

2. Spend a little bit of money to sign aging veterans to one year deals.  Guys that have proven to be effective but won't demand multi-year deals that block the team's development.  There were several of these types of players available this offseason that would have at least made games semi-entertaining, rather than running out numerous Quad A players who struggle to hit .200.  

As I said, I "get it" that we're gonna stink for a few years, and I'm okay with that.  But the organization has to give the fans, especially season ticket holders, SOMETHING to get excited about going to OPACY.  Otherwise we might as well become Minor League ticket holders for the next few years and really have an empty stadium.  

I suspect this is not part of the plan. 

[AceKing]

9 hours ago, weams said:

No need to shout. You need the raw materials. You are not gonna make an ace out of someone with a three ceiling. A guy won't hit without a hit tool. 

Oh stop with the BS excuses. I have watched this team for decades just blow through pitching “talent” and fail to have free agent pitchers live up to their potential.

 

Remember “The Cavalry”

How about Rich Hill?  Wade Miley? Arietta?

Just a few of countless examples.

They need to figure this nonsense out where “The Baltimore Orioles” baseball franchise is incapable of developing any pitcher to their full potential.

Period.

[Satyr3206]

17 hours ago, esmd said:

You're always going to have the people on social media (and some on here, but more so on the former) that want instant gratification and aren't going to be happy unless they see lots of wins from the team on the field.  They're not looking at the signs that the team has a solid long-term plan and has put it into motion, they're not looking at the Orioles no longer being referred to as clueless or behind the times, they're not looking at the international strides, they're not looking at the developmental changes.  They just see a lot of L's, so they're going to think that it's the same old, same old.

I agree with your post that this team is headed in the right direction.  How long it takes and whether they can achieve the ultimate goal is obviously not a foregone conclusion, but I like what I've seen since Elias' hiring.

I agree. It takes patience. Things that are worth waiting for often do.

[Roll Tide]

On 8/1/2019 at 3:18 PM, Greg Pappas said:

Right. It's the carrying it out part that's just as essential. Patience isn't easy, but a requirement... and time will tell if he can make it work.

I agree Greg and nice topic and post! 

I am okay with the approach and want to see it finally done right in Birdland.

For me, I think he wanted and tried to trade Villar, Givens, and listened on Mancini. Obviously teams didn't meet his asking price. Givens flubbed a game at the worst possible time and his early struggles caused his numbers to be inflated.

It looks like the cost of Cashner was very little and most seemed to think it was pretty fair value to shed his salary, a possible commitment next year, and receive 2 very young international guys.

I think the outcome of the deadline, should if not eliminate, then diminish the idea that the goal was to just clear payroll. I'm quite certain with all of the rumors that he could've moved Villar, and Givens for little. It should also probably diminished the idea that Villar will be nontendered at the end of the year. If he was going to do that moving him now for anything would've been the play.

Cheers

[Roll Tide]

14 hours ago, weams said:

No need to shout. You need the raw materials. You are not gonna make an ace out of someone with a three ceiling. A guy won't hit without a hit tool. 

 

4 hours ago, AceKing said:

Oh stop with the BS excuses. I have watched this team for decades just blow through pitching “talent” and fail to have free agent pitchers live up to their potential.

 

Remember “The Cavalry”

How about Rich Hill?  Wade Miley? Arietta?

Just a few of countless examples.

They need to figure this nonsense out where “The Baltimore Orioles” baseball franchise is incapable of developing any pitcher to their full potential.

Period.

I tend to agree that we've had bad luck, trouble developing, and picked up the wrong free agents. 

The minor league system has been broken since back in the 1980s. After Cal Ripken, the Orioles system only produced a couple worthwhile players every decade.

Angelos allowed his GMs to invest very little in scouting, and even less in the minors. He blew up longstanding relationships like Rochester, Bluefield, and Hagerstown to move the teams closer to Baltimore. 

I think some of it saw improvement under McPhail and Duquette. But obviously things still weren't even close to what they needed to be. And the hard line stance on international players was detrimental.

I feel we've turned the corner. The path to the promise land is still a long road. But we are seeing progress in the minors. 

Its long and painful but I'm in!

[weams]

7 hours ago, AceKing said:

Oh stop with the BS excuses. I have watched this team for decades just blow through pitching “talent” and fail to have free agent pitchers live up to their potential.

 

Remember “The Cavalry”

How about Rich Hill?  Wade Miley? Arietta?

Just a few of countless examples.

They need to figure this nonsense out where “The Baltimore Orioles” baseball franchise is incapable of developing any pitcher to their full potential.

Period.

Let's talk about the Cavalry. Do you remember who the Cavalry was? David Hernandez has had a nice MLB career, and he was traded for Mark Reynolds who helped bring the club back to some respectability during his time. Chris Tillman?  A good career, ended by shoulder injury, All Star and Ace of staff during the run. Zach Britton? Top closer in the game during his time here, left in the bullpen during the wildcard game.  Jake Arrieta, Cy Young award winner albeit after leaving and being allowed to "be himself" certainly not a "development issue." They never taught him a thing elsewhere. He simply started listening to better voices a bit after hitting rock bottom after the trade.  Brian Matusz was just a blown draft choice., Never had the "stuff" to go with his pedigree. He was developed completely while in college. Just nothing more in the tank. And finally Brad Bergeson. MASN blew his arm out in an ad. How is that on development?

Rich Hill was developed to the majors by the Cubs. Buzzer on ya. Injuries and journeyman until he rebuilt himself in independant ball. 

Wade Miley? Come on. He was never in the Orioles farm system. You are just talking someone who had success elsewhere while failing here and elsewhere.

Give me some more of your countless examples so I can swat them.  And thanks for calling "BS" on me. My belief in talent being ultimate is well documented here. 

There is no question the Orioles have been poorly run for a long time and that Peter Angelos was a buffoon as a "Baseball Man." There is no question that the staffs in the minors were inadequate as were the facilities. There is no question that the organization did not have one voice and a direction.  There is no question that rebuilds when necessary were not permitted. Those reason are why the Orioles are the worst team. 

Injuries and developmental blips alway occur for teams. All teams. That is why  the strategy of putting lots of talent around  from all avenues is a winning technique and coaching up what you have is a losing one. 

 

[tntoriole]

21 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The Astros have Verlander, Cole and Grienke. They traded for all of those guys. We're so far away from having the system that can continue to have top shelf talent that is desired in those types of trades. That's not a knock on Elias, just a note that this thing will take time. We're looking at 2-3 years before a lot of the first year of DSL guys are even known within our system. That is when our pipeline will start to get close to full maturity. 

With that said, we have future contributors in a lot of places already. There's no reason, in my mind, to think that the 2020 O's have to be terrible and the 2021 O's can't be .500 ish.

You can certainly win a pennant without a true TOR...give me a number of  2 and 3s and a shutdown bullpen....we got this close to the Series less than 5 years ago with nowhere near a true TOR.   There are extraoridnarily few TORs which is why other teams buy them so often.