TT: Matusz speaks to the fans

[McLovin]

Well this depends...If teams drafting ahead of the Orioles don't get their picks signed, then they get a higher pick then #5, so the Orioles pick will slide down.

In addition to that, it appears that it's the pick +1. So if the Royals have the legit #5 pick, we would pick right after them at #6. Plus, like you said, any other comp picks that are in front would bump the O's.

In addition to this, the comp pick is no longer protected - so you either sign that player or lose the pick.

[Guest Sailor Jerry]

That "statement" was a whole lot of nothing. It was good PR is what it was, and the only reason his agent didn't send it was because he can't be his agent until he signs or else he can't go back to USD next year.

[bpeerce]

Perhaps a 3rd consideration (Crow's demands and few high picks signed thus setting the bar as of August 12th being the first 2) is the O's demonstration last year that they will go well above slot if necessary. Considering the number of innings Matusz pitched this year in college, I don't think that his development will be delayed if he doesn't pitch before the fall leagues. Look at Arrietta's performance this year. Assuming he gets his "fair" offer of course.

[McLovin]

Has a draft holdout EVER improved their contract demands the next year? Has one EVER even went on to have a decent career?

[NCRaven]

Has a draft holdout EVER improved their contract demands the next year? Has one EVER even went on to have a decent career?

Nick Markakis was, as stated in this or another post on the subject, drafted twice by Cincy before we got him. Every college player that's drafted was probably drafted, and some very highly, as a high school player, and did not sign.

Now, college juniors, that's another question.

[jamessemaj]

Man, he is pretty much calling the Orioles out here. I can't imagine this makes the Orioles very happy. He isn't making any friends within his new organization. Saying he will sign when he receives a fair offer is a pretty open slap in the face to the Orioles who have said they are being fair with him.

Bingo bango. Fans may like this; the team surely does not.

[Maverick2143]

Has a draft holdout EVER improved their contract demands the next year? Has one EVER even went on to have a decent career?

Lots of them have, however most of them were drafted in the 5th round on. Guys like Matt Laporta have made big jumps (14th round to #7 overall) by coming back for their senior year. However, 99.99% percent of these players are either A) Coming off a injury or B) Feel like they were drafted too low and they can improve. In Matusz's case there really isn't any place for him to go but down.

Taking a quick glance the only example I can find of a pitcher in the top 10 of the draft going back for his senior year is our old buddy Wade Townsend and he went from 8th in 2004 to 8th in 2005. It's not unheard of for a top 10 college pitcher to hold out, however, the track record isn't very good.

[JTrea81]

We only know what is fair when Crow signs. Much like Wieters I expect Crow to sign before Matusz. Once Crow's offer is determined, Matsuz will sign.

[JTrea81]

I wanted Gordon Beckham in the draft, and honestly still feel we should have taken him….

That said, Matusz taking the time to send along those words reflect extremely well on him…. Shows maturity, and an ability to think big-picture…. Combining that with his existing physical ability, and the O's could have a special pitcher.

Even if Matusz's playing career has hiccups, I am quite sure he will be successful in any endeavor he pursues, with that type of character.

PS - If you assume he signs this year, which I think he will… I would just shut him down, and let him get his first taste of pro-ball next Spring.

I believe it was Keith Law that stated that sending him to the lower-minors would be a mistake, because his off-speed stuff would overwhelm younger hitters, and it would not give Matusz the chance to work on his fastball command.

I would start him in Frederick in April 2009, and move him up to Bowie after 35-40 Innings…

I'd do what they did for Arrieta, have him pitch in the AFL to get his feet wet and then put him in Frederick or Bowie depending on how he does.

[Fan4Life]

So have him sign a contract for $X or Crow's deal + 10% whichever is higher. If Crow doesn't sign, then it's the original amount. :scratchchinhmm:

[olehippi]

Precisely...The definition of fair is the issue.

Have the Orioles offered less than what the 4th pick received last year? If they have, then Matusz is right in saying he hasn't received a fair offer.

The bottom line is you can roughly figure out what it should be...What percentage does this go up every year? 2%? 5%? 10%? 20%?

Is 3 million the right number? 3.2 million?

End of the day, it shouldn't be too difficult to figure out.

Last year, Moskos got 2.5 million but the year before, Lincoln got 2.75 million. So, i am guessing this is part of the problem..Moskos signing for less than what happened in 2006 and I am sure Matusz wants more than 2006, or at least as much as Lincoln got in 2006.

They just saved $4M+ in the Bradford trade. So what's really the problem here? I think it has more to do pride than with business. MacPhail doesn't want to be accused of over-paying, and Matusz doesn't want to be accused of selling himself short.

[ScottieBaseball]

That "statement" was a whole lot of nothing. It was good PR is what it was, and the only reason his agent didn't send it was because he can't be his agent until he signs or else he can't go back to USD next year.

You ornery ol' cuss! He could have said nothing you know. Wieters signed at 11:59pm and we all loved him for it. He didn't say a word beforehand. I think it was a nice gesture on Matusz' part.

[Fan4Life]

You ornery ol' cuss! He could have said nothing you know. Wieters signed at 11:59pm and we all loved him for it. He didn't say a word beforehand. I think it was a nice gesture on Matusz' part.

For me, I would be more appreciative of just an apology(expression of regret) that things haven't worked out yet, an epxression of desire to play for us, and a commitment to do all he can to work things out.

That's all any fan can ask for. Getting into "fair" deal comments complicates it too much.

[bluedog]

Through the Hangout, Brian Matusz speaks directly to Orioles fans regarding his current negotiations.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/ttakeArticle.asp?ID=1703&page=ttake

Let me tell you something - that's a pro athlete with his priorities straight. Mr. & Mrs. Matusz did them some fine child rearing...

[Mackus]

Has a draft holdout EVER improved their contract demands the next year?

Rarely, but it has happened. Drew got more from the Cardinals than the Phillies were offering, IIRC.

Has one EVER even went on to have a decent career?

All the time. Most of the college bats drafted in the early rounds were also drafted out of HS and didn't sign then. Then there are college guys who hold out, like Varitek and Drew, who go on to have fantastic careers.

My guess is the percentage of players who don't sign fail/succeed at a rate that is nearly exactly the same as the rate of those who do sign, maybe just a tad lower because of the loss of one development year, but its probably not a major difference.