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Matusz Article


Satyr3206

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I'd think this would be built-in to the slotting system. I.e., it's not a "cost" that's unaccounted for.

How is it built into the slotting system? The slotting system is a management excuse to sign players for as little as possible.

How is it built into the slotting system for a later round success story? They don't get the big signing bonus and have to wait years before a payoff that approaches the value they provide their team.

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Question about the deadline:

Everyone has said it's the 15th, at midnight.

So does that mean the deadline ends right before midnight of the 16th (Friday night)?

Or does it literally end the 15th at midnight (Thursday night)?

Baically I'm asking which night I need to be stressed out on here clicking refresh.

Midnight, July 15 into 16.

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True, but the problem is, if we sign BM for that much this year, whoever we take next year is going to want $1 mil over slot, and then the next year, and the next year...Until finally we have enough and stop spending and it costs us a draft pick one year.

Once we get to be a better team and we're only getting the 15th pick instead of the 4th pick, I'd be more willing to play hardball because the quality of the player won't be so high. If Matusz is really almost a sure thing to be a number 2-3 starter quickly, that's extremely valuable--better than we'll be able to get with the number 5 pick next year. He's worth spending the extra money on, even if it emboldens someone else next year.

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Based on what?

Reports on Matusz is he is the type of guy that could anchor a rotation and he could be here very fast. Tell me what a guy like that would have done for the Orioles this year.

Granted, he is a bigger risk due to injury and such. But a hard-hitting firstbaseman is something that would be easier to get a hold-of through trades and FA signings.

Pitching seems to be harder to come by.

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Once we get to be a better team and we're only getting the 15th pick instead of the 4th pick, I'd be more willing to play hardball because the quality of the player won't be so high. If Matusz is really almost a sure thing to be a number 2-3 starter quickly, that's extremely valuable--better than we'll be able to get with the number 5 pick next year. He's worth spending the extra money on, even if it emboldens someone else next year.

How do you know that? What did we get with the 5th pick last year? Who is to say that someone better than Matusz isn't available next year? If he and his advisor don't come down from their demands I'm willing to risk not signing him. The draft for college pitchers is supposed to be much deeper next year. I have no doubt we could get someone of equal or greater talent next year at #5. However, there is a very good chance that player also would have a high asking price.

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How is it built into the slotting system? The slotting system is a management excuse to sign players for as little as possible.

How is it built into the slotting system for a later round success story? They don't get the big signing bonus and have to wait years before a payoff that approaches the value they provide their team.

It would be probabilistic. The higher the draft pick, the greater the probability that a player will actually experience a below-market MLB salary. Hence, this sacrificed amount would be built in to whatever bonus is offered.

My point wasn't that the slotting system specifically deals with this, but rather that bonuses deal with this, and the slotting system is the bonus system.

What does a low-round success story have to do with Matusz, by the way? If anything, their story fits my theory: a later-round guy doesn't need compensation for his MLB success at below market because he's lucky to have been drafted anyway - the probability of his making the majors is tiny.

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How do you know that? What did we get with the 5th pick last year? Who is to say that someone better than Matusz isn't available next year? If he and his advisor don't come down from their demands I'm willing to risk not signing him. The draft for college pitchers is supposed to be much deeper next year. I have no doubt we could get someone of equal or greater talent next year at #5. However, there is a very good chance that player also would have a high asking price.

This has been my point all along in saying that not signing Matusz isn't a disaster.

Glad to see someone who follows the draft more closely than I is in agreement.

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Matusz will sign. This all represents the postering and face-saving between agents and baseball execs. At this point in the game, everyone knows pretty much where the chips are going to fall. There is always some surprises thus creating the Rouge of the Year Award to the agent or team exec who walks away with more marbles than "slot" advertises. I don't see that happening with Matusz and the Orioles.

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Matusz will sign. This all represents the postering and face-saving between agents and baseball execs. At this point in the game, everyone knows pretty much where the chips are going to fall. There is always some surprises thus creating the Rouge of the Year Award to the agent or team exec who walks away with more marbles than "slot" advertises. I don't see that happening with Matusz and the Orioles.

Hope you're right Sonny.... I will be up sweating until close to midnight:(

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