Every time the O's start Blach they are tanking

[Sessh]

I would also add that I don't care about current attendance or if it's lower because of current performance because the fans will like the end result and they will come back. I don't blame them for taking another leave of absence, but they can go because they'll be back when this plan bears fruit. I am not interested in going for 70 wins to keep some of those fans here now. I'd rather go for teams that can produce 90 wins on a consistent basis and have the organizational depth and strength to produce such teams consistently. That's the goal. Not 70ish wins for 14 years.

[7Mo]

39 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Considering this is the first year of a lengthy rebuild that is directly following a massive collapse, 50 wins is absolutely better than 70 wins. The goal is to get the highest draft pick possible. This is about sacrificing the present for the future for several consecutive years in order to build a successful team built upon a model of sustainability that can be used to consistently produce teams that are playoff contenders year after year.

 

Sorry to disagree with you but I don't think Elias is focusing on 50 wins or 70 wins. The goal isn't the highest draft pick possible.

The goal is to improve the talent level from the lowest minor league team to the 25 man roster. And the biggest key to doing that is to develop players at all stages, whether that's the GCL or DSL or Bowie or anywhere in between, including someone like Means at Balt. And I think it means we're going to have guys in AA or AAA that could be rushed that could help, but they won't be because the overriding goal is development. 

Another part of the overall goal is to draft as well as possible and certainly having 1-1 or 1-2 helps the chances. But it also means someone like Welk in later rounds who might have a future. And after round 5 or so, does it matter if you're picking first that round or 12th? 

in the sense that Elias isn't focused on 70 wins instead of 50 wins, I do agree with that. I think almost everyone on the MLB roster is being viewed as a chip to trade for something that could become a better chip. An example would be Villar. I don't think there were "no" offers for Villar at the trade deadline but I believe there weren't offers that Elias thought made the club better in the long run. 

A day or so ago, Elias mentioned being in place this year to sign some guys who could help, and cited Wojo as an example. But I don't believe the point of that kind of signing is to win 70 games. I think it's to find another chip that can be traded in July for something that improves the club long term. Elias has something that few clubs have. He has 3 spots where he can sign a minor league free agent who needs 10-12 starts to prove his worth. Maybe 1 or 2 of 3-4 signings take the opportunity and run with it and become a valuable chip in July.

I also believe some guys who are having MLB success, like Mancini will be traded when Elias gets an offer he views as helpful long term. But if he isn't, I'm going to interpret that to mean that the offers just weren't of enough value rather than it being important to leave a MLB asset that might contribute to a few more wins. 

I agree with a lot of your post otherwise. 

[NCRaven]

Growing the talent base and saving money have been the most obvious objectives this year.  Growing the talent base includes the draft, trades, J2 signings, improving infrastructure in our Dominican academy, implementing data driven development plans at all levels from top to bottom. 

Elias has also made a few things clearer about his plans in interviews that he's given over the past few days.  Clearly, he sees Bundy, Cashner and Cobb as the first three guys in the rotation next year.  He also sees guys like Akin, Kremer, and Zimmerman joining the ML roster at some point next year.  Akin probably faster than the other two.  From those comments, I doubt we see more than one flyer taken on a Karns/Straily/Cashner type signing.  I also doubt we see any of Baumann, Lowther, Wells, or Sedlock (unless they decide he's a reliever and put him on a fast track) at the ML level next year, certainly not before September.

If that's his plan for the pitching, I'm fine with it, although I don't know how he can have any confidence in Cobb coming back.  For another year, I'll be more interested in player development in the minors, and there's a lot to watch there.  Particularly how they handle DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Growing the talent base and saving money have been the most obvious objectives this year.  Growing the talent base includes the draft, trades, J2 signings, improving infrastructure in our Dominican academy, implementing data driven development plans at all levels from top to bottom. 

Elias has also made a few things clearer about his plans in interviews that he's given over the past few days.  Clearly, he sees Bundy, Cashner and Cobb as the first three guys in the rotation next year.  He also sees guys like Akin, Kremer, and Zimmerman joining the ML roster at some point next year.  Akin probably faster than the other two.  From those comments, I doubt we see more than one flyer taken on a Karns/Straily/Cashner type signing.  I also doubt we see any of Baumann, Lowther, Wells, or Sedlock (unless they decide he's a reliever and put him on a fast track) at the ML level next year, certainly not before September.

If that's his plan for the pitching, I'm fine with it, although I don't know how he can have any confidence in Cobb coming back.  For another year, I'll be more interested in player development in the minors, and there's a lot to watch there.  Particularly how they handle DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez.

Means, Bundy and Cobb.  No Cashner.  I know what you meant from the Melewski article.

[Sessh]

45 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Sorry to disagree with you but I don't think Elias is focusing on 50 wins or 70 wins. The goal isn't the highest draft pick possible.

I only mentioned those win totals because they were being bandied about in this thread. I disagree that getting the highest picks possible is not a short term goal that leads to the long term goal. Yes, we need talent. You get that by getting top picks in the first round especially. Not saying there isn't talent to be had with picks later in the first round, but the first round is why we want the top 3 pick. After round 5, nope, doesn't mean much, but it can matter a lot before the fifth. I don't think Elias cares at all about focusing on any win total and it wasn't my intention to imply that he was.

[Moose Milligan]

So every time the Orioles start Blach they are tanking.

Maybe every time they start someone else other than Blach, they AREN'T taking.  Like Means.  They don't tank when Means is pitching.  Bundy?  They MIGHT BE tanking when Bundy starts.  Pretty sure they are tanking but not 100% when Wojo starts.  

 

[FlipTheBird]

On 9/11/2019 at 2:35 PM, Philip said:

The overall goal is of course to win a World Series, but if winning 70 games makes no difference than winning 45, And by definition you do not care about winning.. Winning 70 games means a hell of a lot to me, even though it is only a step towards the goal. I do not want to sacrifice the future to win 70 games, and I’m sure that is your overall point, but yes we want to win as many games as we can.

Given the way baseball's system operates, it'd almost assuredly benefit the team to be near the bottom of the standings and sporting a small payroll for another season. Get the draft picks, save money to invest in players (and keep players) when it actually matters.

The Orioles aren't going anywhere in 2020. So I'm not at all concerned about going from 50 to 70 wins.

[wildcard]

On 9/11/2019 at 12:27 PM, wildcard said:

I know.  If not Blach, who?

Well they don't need a starter.  They have 13 fricking relievers.   And when Bowie is done with the playoffs they can add a 14th with Taylor Scott. 

Also Shepherd was pitcher of the month at AAA in August.  As a starter.  How about him? 

Then again maybe tanking is the plan.

The Power of the Post.     I posted this on Wednesday.  Blach is DFA'd on Monday and Shepherd gets a start on Tuesday.

Just kidding.  I know the post had nothing to do with it.   Its more just observing that it was time for Blach to go and Shepherd deserved a start.