Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?

[mdbdotcom]

Villar is a more valuable player, but he could be making $8 or $9 million in his walk year. Alberto will be making close to minimum and be under team control for four (I think) more years. 

Not saying either will be traded, but curious what you all think about the returns each could bring back in trade.

[eddie83]

Villar by a good margin. 

[weams]

Well, Alberto. Because he costs nothing. 

[Frobby]

On 9/29/2019 at 7:40 PM, weams said:

Well, Alberto. Because he costs nothing. 

Depends on whether you think Alberto can come anywhere close to sustaining this year’s performance.    Villar had an excellent year and will probably not do as well next year, but I’d still bet on him being an average/slightly above starting 2B who can play SS if needed.    Alberto also had an excellent year that probably won’t be repeated, but I’d be fearful of a much more precipitous drop by him, maybe back to a 1 WAR player or below.   And I’m not saying I’m sure of that, but I’m a lot less confident of Alberto than I am of Villar.

Given their respective salaries and remaining years of control, I’d guess the return would be pretty equal.  

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends on whether you think Alberto can come anywhere close to sustaining this year’s performance.    Villar had an excellent year and will probably not do as well next year, but I’d still bet on him being an average/slightly above starting 2B who can play SS if needed.    Alberto also had an excellent year that probably won’t be repeated, but I’d be fearful of a much more precipitous drop by him, maybe back to a 1 WAR player or below.   And I’m not saying I’m sure of that, but I’m a lot less confident of Alberto than I am of Villar.

Given their respective salaries and remaining years of control, I’d guess the return would be pretty equal.  

I don't think either have much relevant value in the new world of baseball, but with Alberto, the investment is small. And economy is driving the new game. 

I think we are enamored with the new Villar, but he might be the old Villar. He is a rather expensive option when most teams have something similar pre arbitration. The steals don't have much real world value. 

[TAMC]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't think either have much relevant value in the new world of baseball, but with Alberto, the investment is small. And economy is driving the new game. 

I think we are enamored with the new Villar, but he might be the old Villar. He is a rather expensive option when most teams have something similar pre arbitration. The steals don't have much real world value. 

I understand that, in terms of runs eventually scored, the steals by Villar and others had little value.  As a person who paid for quite a number of tickets over the course of a really bad season, I enjoyed them.  I believe the team will someday wonder what happened to all the loyal fans if they don't do at least something to keep losing teams interesting while the assets build up in the minors.

[interloper]

Villar. Every team's analytics department knows there's no way in hell Alberto sustains what he did this season. If I'm a contender, I'd rather pay more for Villar for a better shot at repeating his offensive productivity

PLUS the elite baserunning

PLUS the ability to play shortstop.

It's really not even close. 

[weams]

20 minutes ago, TAMC said:

I understand that, in terms of runs eventually scored, the steals by Villar and others had little value.  As a person who paid for quite a number of tickets over the course of a really bad season, I enjoyed them.  I believe the team will someday wonder what happened to all the loyal fans if they don't do at least something to keep losing teams interesting while the assets build up in the minors.

Yeah. I get your feelings. But there is no quantifiable vale. No one will pay for that. Not with the new way that baseball is being evaluated. 

Other teams won't pay for that fun factor.  Besides. Alberto is tons of fun!

[weams]

23 minutes ago, TAMC said:

I understand that, in terms of runs eventually scored, the steals by Villar and others had little value.  As a person who paid for quite a number of tickets over the course of a really bad season, I enjoyed them.  I believe the team will someday wonder what happened to all the loyal fans if they don't do at least something to keep losing teams interesting while the assets build up in the minors.

I think what you are asking for is both Hanser and Jonathan to be retained for fan enjoyment. Is that correct?

[weams]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

Villar. Every team's analytics department knows there's no way in hell Alberto sustains what he did this season. If I'm a contender, I'd rather pay more for Villar for a better shot at repeating his offensive productivity

PLUS the elite baserunning

PLUS the ability to play shortstop.

It's really not even close. 

Every teams analytics department knows that is not of value.

Plus where did you factor in the funds? 

[TAMC]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

I think what you are asking for is both Hanser and Jonathan to be retained for fan enjoyment. Is that correct?

No, I really don't care about either particularly.  I am just saying that with the bad team we had, some of the things that statistics reject as being of minimal worth (and correctly I think) have some value to paying fans who want to remain loyal even in down years.  I send the Orioles my money even in bad years because I am a fan.  It would be nice if they would look for relatively cheap opportunities to make the losing less depressing while we all wait for the long term plan to pay off.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't think either have much relevant value in the new world of baseball, but with Alberto, the investment is small. And economy is driving the new game. 

I think we are enamored with the new Villar, but he might be the old Villar. He is a rather expensive option when most teams have something similar pre arbitration. The steals don't have much real world value. 

 

12 minutes ago, TAMC said:

I understand that, in terms of runs eventually scored, the steals by Villar and others had little value.  As a person who paid for quite a number of tickets over the course of a really bad season, I enjoyed them.  I believe the team will someday wonder what happened to all the loyal fans if they don't do at least something to keep losing teams interesting while the assets build up in the minors.

I’m not too big into steals, but I am into taking extra bases on singles and doubles, something Villar does 60% of the time compared to league average of 40%.    That together with stealing fairly often at a high success rate was worth an extra 7-11 runs, depending on which source you use.     So, about one win.    

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, weams said:

Every teams analytics department knows that is not of value.

Plus where did you factor in the funds? 

Scoring from 1st isn't valuable? He was one of the league leaders in that. Throw out the steals altogether if you like, his speed is a factor regardless.

I don't understand your question about the funds.

He's got a positive WAR his entire career and can play an adequate shortstop. He's durable as hell, played all 162. He's not yet 30. A contender could look at all this and not bat an eye at the price if there's a need in their infield for a steady player.

My money is on him staying until the All-Star break, but I still think it's ridiculous to believe that Alberto has more trade value. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Scoring from 1st isn't valuable? He was one of the league leaders in that. Throw out the steals altogether if you like, his speed is a factor regardless.

 

Not analytically. Not in a quantifiable way like taking an extra walk a week or not making a bonehead play a week. 

The funds were the monetary difference. The Analytics guys factor that too. Also the team control issue. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I’m not too big into steals, but I am into taking extra bases on singles and doubles, something Villar does 60% of the time compared to league average of 40%.    That together with stealing fairly often at a high success rate was worth an extra 7-11 runs, depending on which source you use.     So, about one win.    

And the on base mistakes? Are they a minus win?