Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I think that my issue is that I do not believe that the Orioles wish to pay any money to any nice players for the next two seasons. I guess I could be wrong. 

Well it's only one more season (likely just a half-season) for Villar, and Trumbo is coming off the books. Overall, I would disagree that the O's want no part in paying any decent players for 2020. In free agency, sure, agreed, they'll go cheap.

Known quantities currently on the roster who could be trade candidates in the upcoming season I think is a much different case. 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Actually, if there's a team that might not want to pay for such a player, the O's would be on the short list. Elias isn't interested in 70 wins. 

Pretty hard disagree here. He's already here, he's reliable, there isn't a prospect ready for MI, and Martin is likely ticketed for AAA barring an outstanding spring. 

[LookinUp]

Just now, interloper said:

Well it's only one more season (likely just a half-season) for Villar, and Trumbo is coming off the books. Overall, I would disagree that the O's want no part in paying any decent players for 2020. In free agency, sure, agreed, they'll go cheap.

Known quantities currently on the roster who could be trade candidates in the upcoming season I think is a much different case. 

This is an interesting discussion. I wonder how much the "bird in the hand" scenario will affect Elias' thinking. If Villar were still with the Brewers last year and became a FA, would Elias offer him a 1 year/$8 million contract? 

If that answer is no, then (absent emotion) the only real reason to offer arbitration is because you think you can trade him this offseason before you pay any of that real money. 

[jamalshw]

This offseason? Villar. He's pretty much clinched that he is at least an average regular at 2B. Alberto could still be more of a role player. I would also be interested in holding Alberto and seeing if he can replicate the numbers against LHP (or at least comes close). If so, by midseason, he could be valuable for a team looking for platoon options.

[interloper]

Just now, LookinUp said:

This is an interesting discussion. I wonder how much the "bird in the hand" scenario will affect Elias' thinking. If Villar were still with the Brewers last year and became a FA, would Elias offer him a 1 year/$8 million contract? 

If that answer is no, then (absent emotion) the only real reason to offer arbitration is because you think you can trade him this offseason before you pay any of that real money. 

That's the biggest reason, sure. Look, the O's are going cheap for the foreseeable future, but it doesn't mean they don't have money. If you're going to pay any player on your roster some money, it's going to be your 2-to-4-win shortstop who plays every day and doesn't complain about the losing. It's not something you have to worry about all that much, and folks are really overthinking this. 

Would Elias go out and buy a player like Villar? If it was on a 1-year deal, I mean maybe! More than a year? Nah. But we're dealing with a 1-year contract here for a guy we don't even have to do any work on. We've got his medicals, he's been here for two years, Elias has bigger things to worry about. Sign him and hope you trade him, if you don't, it was almost certainly money well spent. 

The O's will have like a sub-$50 million salary in 2020. They've gone as high as, what, $160? $180? They're not strapped for cash, they just don't want to go out of their way to spend right now. Mostly, that means free agents. 

[mdbdotcom]

Players that run well and steal bases are only as valuable as their ability to score runs. IMHO, Villar's greatest achievement this year was that he scored 111 runs, leading a team that won only 53 games. Mancini finished second with 106 runs. Unfortunately, Villar hasn't scored runs consistently throughout his career. His only other big year for scoring runs was 2016, when he scored 92 runs. Last season he played in 141 games between the Brewers and the Orioles and scored only 54 runs. I don't know what team will want to pay him $8 million and hope that he repeats this year's success. Maybe someone will. Now, if Buck gets a job ...

[weams]

23 minutes ago, interloper said:

Well it's only one more season (likely just a half-season) for Villar, and Trumbo is coming off the books. Overall, I would disagree that the O's want no part in paying any decent players for 2020. In free agency, sure, agreed, they'll go cheap.

Known quantities currently on the roster who could be trade candidates in the upcoming season I think is a much different case. 

You defend your case well. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Players that run well and steal bases are only as valuable as their ability to score runs. IMHO, Villar's greatest achievement this year was that he scored 111 runs, leading a team that won only 53 games. Mancini finished second with 106 runs. Unfortunately, Villar hasn't scored runs consistently throughout his career. His only other big year for scoring runs was 2016, when he scored 92 runs. Last season he played in 141 games between the Brewers and the Orioles and scored only 54 runs. I don't know what team will want to pay him $8 million and hope that he repeats this year's success. Maybe someone will. Now, if Buck gets a job ...

So if a player runs well and steals bases but doesn't score a lot of runs because of his lineup position and teammates he isn't valuable?

I guess he should steal home more?

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's the biggest reason, sure. Look, the O's are going cheap for the foreseeable future, but it doesn't mean they don't have money. If you're going to pay any player on your roster some money, it's going to be your 2-to-4-win shortstop who plays every day and doesn't complain about the losing. It's not something you have to worry about all that much, and folks are really overthinking this. 

Would Elias go out and buy a player like Villar? If it was on a 1-year deal, I mean maybe! More than a year? Nah. But we're dealing with a 1-year contract here for a guy we don't even have to do any work on. We've got his medicals, he's been here for two years, Elias has bigger things to worry about. Sign him and hope you trade him, if you don't, it was almost certainly money well spent. 

The O's will have like a sub-$50 million salary in 2020. They've gone as high as, what, $160? $180? They're not strapped for cash, they just don't want to go out of their way to spend right now. Mostly, that means free agents. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think the bolded line is the old way of thinking. I don't know whether Elias thinks that way or not. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think the bolded line is the old way of thinking. I don't know whether Elias thinks that way or not. 

That was what I had concerns about as well. 

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Players that run well and steal bases are only as valuable as their ability to score runs. IMHO, Villar's greatest achievement this year was that he scored 111 runs, leading a team that won only 53 games. Mancini finished second with 106 runs. Unfortunately, Villar hasn't scored runs consistently throughout his career. His only other big year for scoring runs was 2016, when he scored 92 runs. Last season he played in 141 games between the Brewers and the Orioles and scored only 54 runs. I don't know what team will want to pay him $8 million and hope that he repeats this year's success. Maybe someone will. Now, if Buck gets a job ...

Runs scored are highly dependent on a few things:

1. How often you get on base.
2. Who is batting behind you.
3. How much you play. 

Villar played 162 games, had a better-than-average .339 OBP, and had 530-odd plate appearances batting first or second with Trey Mancini plus homer-centric guys like Santandar and Nunez batting below him.  

His "skill" in scoring runs is really a product of getting on base at a decent clip and being at the top of the order while playing every game.  Runs are like RBI, in that they are very context dependent.  Players create the opportunities but to a large degree up to their teammates to determine if they're going to have 80 or 120.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Runs scored are highly dependent on a few things:

1. How often you get on base.
2. Who is batting behind you.
3. How much you play. 

 

4. Run scoring environment.

[DrungoHazewood]

38 minutes ago, interloper said:

Pretty hard disagree here. He's already here, he's reliable, there isn't a prospect ready for MI, and Martin is likely ticketed for AAA barring an outstanding spring. 

I think Richie Martin would have to OPS 1.200 in the spring to not end up in Norfolk.

[wildcard]

I think the first thing to remember is the the O's will not have the pitching to contend in 2020.  That means they are a losing team.   There is really no reason to pay Villar 7-8m  in 2020 to lose. 

I think he is tendered and shopped a lot during the off season.  If Elias has a chance to trade him he will.  The ability for Villar to repeat his number probably has more to do with the ball than anything else.   I think MLB will take some of the rabbit out of the ball next season.  Not a lot but some.  That will make some of his fly balls be warning track outs instead of homers.   That will effect his slugging percentage.

His base running and stealing has value. His 111 runs scored has value.  His versatility has value.   I agree with Frobby saying that the base running  is not valued as high  as power is valued.  But  Villar still has value.   And Elias will try to cash in on that value.

Alberto is less valuable than Villar because of he doesn't walk and has little power.  His salary will be less which keeps him attractive to the O's.  I think he stays.    Alberto killed lefties and didn't hit righties very well this season. However his minor league stats show that he probably will hit righties in the future.  I think he normalizes next season an hits righties better  but his     hitting of lefties is not as good.   I think Hyde will give him the opportunity to be an everyday player next season.  He will have  to improve vs righties to take advantage of the opportunity.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

4. Run scoring environment.

Sure.  Also your ability to drive yourself in.