Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think Richie Martin would have to OPS 1.200 in the spring to not end up in Norfolk.

That depends on who the O's have to play SS next season.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That depends on who the O's have to play SS next season.

In some literal sense that's true. If the Orioles have a smallpox epidemic and Martin is the only healthy shortstop in the organization he'll start on opening day.  But if you're willing to go all year with a regular shortstop who's OPSing .550 with just okay defense, that kind of player is available on the waiver wire late in every March.  It'll be a very unusual situation if Martin gets significant time in Baltimore the first half of the year.

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

His base running and stealing has value. His 111 runs scored has value.  His versatility has value.   I agree with Frobby saying that the base running  is not valued as high  as power is valued.  But  Villar still has value.   And Elias will try to cash in on that value.

Villar has maybe $10M in surplus value, give or take.  He's under contract for one year if/when he's tendered.  That's what Elias has to work with, and the expectations he has to deal with.

[sportsfan8703]

I like the theory of sell high on any of our current players that won’t be here in 2023, or will be expensive in 2023. I’d trade Villar and Alberto for the best deals we can get. Their value can’t get higher with all realistic factors considered. 

Accumulate long terms assets. In the mean time offer ABs to waiver wire pickups, Non-tenders, Rule 5s, etc....  

A player I’d target if non-tendered would be Jurickson Profar.  Maybe he could even be included in a swap for Villar.  Something like Villar for Profar, and two top 30ish prospects.  Then hope Profar’s power plays in OPACY in the first half, then sell him at the deadline.

I’m not video game GM’ing, just armchairing, but basically anytime a stop gap player is performing well, we should be looking to sell high for long term assets.  The reality is that every player here is a “stop gap” currently unless in 2023 they will be in their prime, and with a good value contract situation.  Why start a window to compete with potential baggage?

Also, I think Severino is in a comparable situation to Alberto, so maybe we consider him in this discussion.

 

[weams]

They like Villar as the 9th best shortstop...

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-35-shortstops-for-2020/

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, weams said:

They like Villar as the 9th best shortstop...

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-35-shortstops-for-2020/

Fantasy.  Where steals are worth almost as much as homers, and you're a hero if you qualify at multiple positions even if you can't really play some of them.

[bobmc]

59 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Fantasy.  Where steals are worth almost as much as homers, and you're a hero if you qualify at multiple positions even if you can't really play some of them.

And his stickball game is "jonronable"!  Arriba!  Only adds to the mystique ....

[weams]

Quote

The Orioles may not go back to a plodding team if they non-tender or trade Villar, but they won’t be as disruptive on the bases unless they find someone to mimic him.

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/will-stealing-bases-remain-part-of-orioles-approach-in-2020.html

No one is talking about non-tendering Alberto. 

[mdbdotcom]

21 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/will-stealing-bases-remain-part-of-orioles-approach-in-2020.html

No one is talking about non-tendering Alberto. 

I'd like to see them keep Alberto. He's our Altuve Lite.

[weams]

40 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd like to see them keep Alberto. He's our Altuve Lite.

I think they might. 

[wildbillhiccup]

On 10/9/2019 at 6:35 AM, weams said:

They like Villar as the 9th best shortstop...

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-35-shortstops-for-2020/

 

Yeah, this list has nothing to do with "real" baseball. Some of the names behind Villar are absolutely ridiculous. In real life he's also behind Baez, Torres, Marte, Bichette, Machado, Correa, Seager, Lux, Andrus, and Anderson. I'd take any of those SS (along with the seven other in front him) over Villar. I'd also consider taking Kingery, Senzel, Urias, and Gurriel, and Gregorous over him. That puts him at 22 overall and I don't think I'm being overly harsh given the youth / upside of some of those younger players. This is why I think we should consider letting Villar walk. I don't think his trade value is what we think it is. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd like to see them keep Alberto. He's our Altuve Lite.

Very Lite.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This is why I think we should consider letting Villar walk. I don't think his trade value is what we think it is. 

That really is a fascinating possibility. We let a very good player walk away for nothing because he's getting moderately expensive, and we expect to be a bad team, and we assess that he doesn't have high trade value. A pure money based decision. 

I'm not saying that won't happen, but I think the pure money plays are easier when you don't already have the guy (e.g., avoid signing Villar types in FA). It would be pretty crazy for the O's to just let him go for nothing and accept the certain downgrade to the lineup. It would make sense financially, but I don't see them going that far into the money ball/analytics/cold front office direction.

[weams]

44 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

That really is a fascinating possibility. We let a very good player walk away for nothing because he's getting moderately expensive, and we expect to be a bad team, and we assess that he doesn't have high trade value. A pure money based decision. 

I'm not saying that won't happen, but I think the pure money plays are easier when you don't already have the guy (e.g., avoid signing Villar types in FA). It would be pretty crazy for the O's to just let him go for nothing and accept the certain downgrade to the lineup. It would make sense financially, but I don't see them going that far into the money ball/analytics/cold front office direction.

Oh. I think they are as money ball as anyone you will ever meet. This is Sig here. 

[Frobby]

Basically, they need to determine if his free agent market value would exceed what he’d get in arbitration.   If so, they should be able to trade him for something of value rather than releasing him.    If not, then I suppose they’d be better off nontendering him and getting something cheaper on the open market.    Looks like the O’s could pick up Schoop for a fraction of what Villar would cost, for example.