Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

As a 4 win player per Fangraphs in 2019, Villar's BSR was a league leading 10.5. He went from being an above average baserunner to the best baserunner in baseball. Steamer projects his BSR to 3.0 which is essentially his average level between 2016-18 (3.5/2.6/3.3). That doesn't account for all of the drop, but it is a pretty big factor, and the biggest area where Villar's 2018 season WAS an outlier from his history.

Will the rear Villar please stand up and show yourself.

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

By "not bad" do you mean possibly flirting with .500? If yes, then I agree. If you mean contending then there's no chance in hell. 

Is 65 wins this year, 75 next, and 85 in 2022 that outrageous?  Or something like 60, 72, 90 happens all the time.  The Astros went from 51 wins in 2013 to playoffs in 2015.  Starting in 2012 the Cubs went 61, 66, 73, 97.  The Tigers were in the Series in '06 after winning 43 in '03.  About every 20 years for the last century the Braves have a season where they go from 65 wins to 90.

It may not be likely that they're contenders in '22, but it's not a huge reach.  It doesn't require a '89 or '12 level miracle.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is 65 wins this year, 75 next, and 85 in 2022 that outrageous?  Or something like 60, 72, 90 happens all the time.  The Astros went from 51 wins in 2013 to playoffs in 2015.  Starting in 2012 the Cubs went 61, 66, 73, 97.  The Tigers were in the Series in '06 after winning 43 in '03.  About every 20 years for the last century the Braves have a season where they go from 65 wins to 90.

It may not be likely that they're contenders in '22, but it's not a huge reach.  It doesn't require a '89 or '12 level miracle.

The thing is, I'm not sure we've hit rock bottom yet. 

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is 65 wins this year, 75 next, and 85 in 2022 that outrageous?  Or something like 60, 72, 90 happens all the time.  The Astros went from 51 wins in 2013 to playoffs in 2015.  Starting in 2012 the Cubs went 61, 66, 73, 97.  The Tigers were in the Series in '06 after winning 43 in '03.  About every 20 years for the last century the Braves have a season where they go from 65 wins to 90.

It may not be likely that they're contenders in '22, but it's not a huge reach.  It doesn't require a '89 or '12 level miracle.

it does for those posters drinking the kool-aid and believing the world is flat.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

it does for those posters drinking the kool-aid and believing the world is flat.

1) The Orioles haven't given us much hope the last few years that we're on the verge of reaching Asia by sailing west.

2) Fans in general tend to think that teams move in predictable, linear steps.  They'll win 60 this year, 70 the next, 80, then 90.  But probably more often they do things like 63, 67, 67, 93.  In 2011 we had many discussions about whether the O's would be in contention in '15 or '18, but certainly no earlier.  We had the same discussions in '06 about '10 or '12 or later.

[theocean]

28 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The thing is, I'm not sure we've hit rock bottom yet. 

Their pitching is a ways off. I don't see them making any jump until they get that together.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, theocean said:

Their pitching is a ways off. I don't see them making any jump until they get that together.

It's not always or even usually linear, incremental steps.  The 2006 Rays had a 5.58 ERA.  Flatly abysmal.  The 2007 Rays had a 3.82.

[Just Regular]

Since the 1st round pick-less 2014 year, we've tabbed 1-25 Stewart, 1-36 Mountcastle, 1-27 Sedlock, 1-21 DL Hall, 1-11 Rodriguez, 1-1 Rutschman, with 2020's 1-2 pick TBD.  

In 2022 it'll be the Top Four prospects Age 22/23/24/25 seasons, and they'll all be at the MLB minimum.  Martin, Torkelson, or Hancock might contribute that year if we go NCAA again.   A lot of the rest is details, especially if the group can earn an A free agent's attention over the next 24 months.  

We didn't have but Roberts/Bigbie/Matos/Ponson when Tejada signed.  Even Means/Hays/Diaz/Harvey might be able to hang with that quartet.

[theocean]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not always or even usually linear, incremental steps.  The 2006 Rays had a 5.58 ERA.  Flatly abysmal.  The 2007 Rays had a 3.82.

Sure, but those Rays actually had some real pitching prospects and guys who were expected to be that good.

Their impact arms: Rodriguez and Hall are still a way off. I don't think we can expect Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, and Akin all to make it. Harvey has to stay healthy. There's a lot of work to be done for the O's to have something similar to what the Rays had.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, theocean said:

Sure, but those Rays actually had some real pitching prospects and guys who were expected to be that good.

Their impact arms: Rodriguez and Hall are still a way off. I don't think we can expect Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, and Akin all to make it. Harvey has to stay healthy. There's a lot of work to be done for the O's to have something similar to what the Rays had.

We're not talking about this year.  We're talking about how they could potentially get over .500 in 2022.  

In 2005 Scott Kazmir was pitching for the Rays, but otherwise: 

- Edwin Jackson was terrible in AAA (8.62 ERA in 55 innings) and for the Dodgers
- James Shields spent most of the year in AA
- Matt Garza was in rookie ball and low A
- Andy Sonnastine split the year between the California League and the Midwest League
- And David Price was a freshman at Vanderbilt

[weams]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We're not talking about this year.  We're talking about how they could potentially get over .500 in 2022.  

In 2005 Scott Kazmir was pitching for the Rays, but otherwise: 

- Edwin Jackson was terrible in AAA (8.62 ERA in 55 innings) and for the Dodgers
- James Shields spent most of the year in AA
- Matt Garza was in rookie ball and low A
- Andy Sonnastine split the year between the California League and the Midwest League
- And David Price was a freshman at Vanderbilt

Good points all.