MLBTR projected O's arbitration salaries

[Redskins Rick]

22 minutes ago, weams said:

I was talking about the arb numbers. The FA stuff is all over the place. I think they have different folks doing them. 

true, makes sense, thanks

[scOtt]

Quote

The Astros are on pace to rake in an estimated $99 million in operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) this season. That is nearly as much as the estimated operating income of the previous six World Series championship teams — combined.

...

Yet the Astros are 43-86, worst in the majors. Of the 270 Major League Baseball teams who have taken the field since 2005, none have finished with a worse winning percentage than Houston’s.

They have become so profitable thanks to slashed payroll expenses and soaring television revenues.

....

Crane has gutted the team of its most expensive players while building up the farm system. Over the course of this season, the team will pay its players an estimated $21 million in salary and bonuses. That is down $56 million from 2011, when Crane bought the team.

The Astros opened this season with a league-low $26 million active payroll and have since cut it to under $13 million, according to the Houston Chronicle. Houston traded or released four of its five players making over $1 million.

 

16 hours ago, weams said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2013/08/26/2013-houston-astros-baseballs-worst-team-is-most-profitable-in-history/#5e9e4ef434c0

Great time capsule there!

 

From the Houston Chronicle article, my comments in RED.

------------

How can the Astros compete, especially with a regional television contract that pays them significantly less than many teams in other markets?

They can’t–financially.

Sound familiar?

 

They are particularly handcuffed in competing for players in regions where the major league draft doesn’t apply. A example is Cuba. When Yasiel Puig defected, he was a free agent. The Dodgers signed him to a seven-yer deal for $42 million. The Astros couldn’t begin to consider paying that much for a player unproven at any level where they regularly scout.

I don't know if we could or would pay $42 mill for a Cuban or other player. Time will tell on Elias' international strategy and effort. J2 was a promising effort I think. We'll see what the rest of the year will bring.

 

They have talent in the minor leagues, but there is a fine margin of error. Many of those players will have to develop not only into major leaguers but above-average major leaguers before the Astros can contend again.

And many of those players DID develop! And Elias is building our system on the basis of what they did in Houston. With any upgrades that he and Sig can cook up.

 

_____________________________

Only thing I can say about the Forbes article is I don't know if they will SLASH our payroll like Houston did. This off season will tell a lot more about that.

 

It's just really interesting to look at two (independent) articles on the Astros from when they were at their very lowest. They HAD to be skeptical then because what Crane and Lunhow (and Elias) were working on was  a new and improved version of what they worked on in St. Louis. And of course they won it all just 4 years later and are perennial contenders now. We're at the skeptical point now with the Orioles. Time will tell how Mike and Sig (and the Bros...) turn out.

[weams]

Non Tenders

https://www.mlb.com/news/non-tender-candidates-2019-2020-offseason

[Frobby]

On 10/10/2019 at 10:04 AM, weams said:

I was talking about the arb numbers. The FA stuff is all over the place. I think they have different folks doing them. 

It’s simply harder.     

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s simply harder.     

Yes. 

[Chavez Ravine]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s simply harder.     

 

9 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes. 

I wonder if it has gotten less hard in recent years....and a bit closer in terms of variability to estimating arb numbers. There seems to be fewer wacky contracts and an overall suppression (at least in the middle of the road guys). I suspect the same computer is informing arb positions as well as FA initial offers.

[PaulFolk]

On 10/10/2019 at 1:46 AM, JimGinSP said:

The Orioles are limited in trade partners for Villar but two AL possibilities stand out, Oakland and Minnesota.   Oakland has soured on Jurickson Profar all while he is projected at $5.8 million in arb per the same MLBTR article.   He is considered a non tender candidate.   Oakland is serious about contending and wants middle infield improvement.    Minnesota just paid old friend Jonathan Schoop $7.75 million on a 1 year contract to watch him become a part time player.  They are understandably pissed about their playoff showing against NYY and apparently have money to spend.   

Our return should be better than 2 Dominican youngsters from teams like this.

Schoop became a part-time player because Luis Arraez came up and hit .334. He's the reason the Twins wouldn't be interested in Villar.

[JimGinSP]

 

I looked at Arraez prior and wonder if he is more of the real deal than our own Hanser Alberto?   Does a contending team just hand him second base?  Arraez has age in his favor, he is 4 1/2 years younger than Hanser,  I’m not sure if that equates to athleticism but it seems Arraez was previously being groomed as super utility (2B, 3B, LF, SS) before supplanting Schoop.

Twins also have some tender decisions with Eddie Rosario predicted at $8.9 and C.J. Cron at $7.7 by MLBTR.  Combined they didn’t reach Villar’s 4.0 WAR. 

Arraez - 336 PA .334/.399/.439.  Left hand hitter

Albero - 550 PA .305/.329/.422.  Right hand hitter

Edited October 13, 2019 by JimGinSP

[JimGinSP]

3 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

Schoop became a part-time player because Luis Arraez came up and hit .334.  He’s the reason the Twins wouldn’t be interested in Villar.

Oops please see above

Edited October 13, 2019 by JimGinSP
Quote

[Frobby]

The deadline for submitting arbitration demands and offers is noon today.   Still remaining: Mancini, Givens and Alberto.  Though the deadline is noon, I remember that last year we got news of some settlements several hours later, and never did learn what was offered or demanded by those players.     Should be interesting to see what happens with these three.    I’m also interested to see what Villar and Bundy get.    

[MurphDogg]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m also interested to see what Villar and Bundy get.    

Should have kept him.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Should have kept him.

Frobby was right.

But eh, I'm kind of jazzed about our new defensive middle infield. We got a pitcher Elias likes, saved money, and improved our defense. I don't really find much fault in that. I don't care about steals much and hitting a few more home runs doesn't really do it for me either. 

[interloper]

 

[Frobby]

On 10/9/2019 at 3:59 PM, wildcard said:

• Jonathan Villar  -$10.4MM......Whoa Nellie. [$8.2 mm]
• Mychal Givens – $3.2MM [$3.225 mm]
• Dylan Bundy – $5.7MM.....Huge jump [$5.0 mm]
• Hanser Alberto – $1.9MM [$1.65 mm, w/incentives]
  Miguel Castro – $1.2MM [$1.05 mm, w/incentives]
• Richard Bleier – $1.1MM [$0.915 mm]
• Trey Mancini – $5.7MM.....For a first time arbitration guy? [$4.75 mm]

Added what the players actually got.   Overall they were about $4.2 mm high on this group of players, including $2.7 mm high on the two we traded away.   

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Added what the players actually got.   Overall they were about $4.2 mm high on this group of players, including $2.7 mm high on the two we traded away.   

Bleier got $915000 not 9 million plus.