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Projected Orioles 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

AZRon

By AZRon
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AZRon
AZRon

For those who want to play GM, I am presenting the current projected opening day team payroll (ODP) for the start of the 2020 season. I'm dealing only with the "active" roster, but the O's will have p

AZRon
AZRon

Updated the ODP projection for the 2020 MLB minimum salary of $563,500. See opening post Projected 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $61.09M. Last year's ODP was $82.12.  

Frobby
Frobby

I’m declaring victory.     Heck, even I was $600 k high.     Please remember this one the next time MLBTR comes out with an inflated estimate on one of our players.     They were 25% high on this one.

wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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26 minutes ago, weams said:

I assume that GMs in modern baseball have the same tools available that Dierkes does and use them to do their evaluations. I guess there are still a few dinosaurs that pay any attention to press.media. 

I agree that the GM have the same tools as Dierkes and they will probably come up with the same numbers.  But that is not the whole story.

Because of the juiced ball the  formula that was used in previous years is invalid for 2019.   The juiced ball made balls that would have been caught on the warning track  homers in 2019.   

If the MLB de-juices the ball in 2020 does that mean salaries should go down?

 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree that the GM have the same tools as Dierkes and they will probably come up with the same numbers.  But that is not the whole story.

Because of the juiced ball the  formula that was used in previous years is invalid for 2019.   The juiced ball made balls that would have been caught on the warning track  homers in 2019.   

If the MLB de-juices the ball in 2020 does that mean salaries should go down?

 

Of course not. THis is a legal process, collectively bargained. Whimsy has no place in ti. It's a math problem. 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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1 hour ago, weams said:

Of course not. THis is a legal process, collectively bargained. Whimsy has no place in ti. It's a math problem. 

You actually think that a the clubs are not going to have the juiced ball as a part to their presentation  to the arbitrator is the case of a hitter?

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You actually think that a the clubs are not going to have the juiced ball as a part to their presentation  to the arbitrator is the case of a hitter?

I think that is  not even a possibility.  The baseball run environment will be discussed as are all analytics. Most of the judicial factors are the standard ones. Even pitcher wins and batting average. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 hours ago, weams said:

Dierkes has been wrong before, but he is usually an industry accepted touchstone. I don't like it always, but he is.  This isn't a blog saying this.  

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than his.    

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Just now, Frobby said:

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than theirs.    

Might Gausman have won if he played? I personally don't think he would have. I do not think those numbers are based on settling, only trial. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than theirs.    

I bet I will never know how clever you truly are on this one. Because I believe that Villar will settle with whatever club trades of his career year. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 minute ago, weams said:

Might Gausman have won if he played? I personally don't think he would have. I do not think those numbers are based on settling, only trial. 

90% of the cases settle.    Dierkes makes these projections before the bid and the ask are known, so I don’t see how he can be projecting what will happen at trial.    

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jerios55 Major Leaguer

jerios55

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An interesting thought from the guaranteed salary that Chris Davis holds.  If we cut him, we all know it's a sunk cost.  But opening up another roster spot would mean another 572k player, adding to the budget (not the payroll exactly, but overall outlay of resources). 

Crazy that they could trade Mancini, Givens, Bundy, Villar and be about 47mill and 37mill (78.7%) be from 2 players that have 0 to negative value. 

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AZRon Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

AZRon

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Updated the roster projection for all transactions through 12/2/2020.
See opening post

Projected 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $66M. Last year's ODP was $82.12.

As to 2019 full season player compensation, according to the linked source below, the Orioles at 80.8M, ranked 27th ahead of the Pirates, Marlins and Rays; and had, by far, the largest percentage reduction in year over year compensation at -45.6%.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?cyear=2019&team=&pos=

 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, AZRon said:

Updated the roster projection for all transactions through 12/2/2020.
See opening post

Projected 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $66M. Last year's ODP was $82.12.

As to 2019 full season player compensation, according to the linked source below, the Orioles at 80.8M, ranked 27th ahead of the Pirates, Marlins and Rays; and had, by far, the largest percentage reduction in year over year compensation at -45.6%.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?cyear=2019&team=&pos=

 

Thanks for the update.  

This does not change payroll but I see Mancini as the 1B and Davis on the bench.   I think Carroll is ahead of Fry, Tate and Kline.   Stewart begins the season on the DL, on rehab in the minors or optioned and Williams playing LF.   

Just thoughts.

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AZRon Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

AZRon

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the update.  

This does not change payroll but I see Mancini as the 1B and Davis on the bench.   I think Carroll is ahead of Fry, Tate and Kline.   Stewart begins the season on the DL, on rehab in the minors or optioned and Williams playing LF.   

Just thoughts.

OK, but Williams is not currently on the 40 Man and, if he replaces an IL'ed Stewart, that would affect the total payroll figure. Thanks for your thoughts.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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1 hour ago, AZRon said:

OK, but Williams is not currently on the 40 Man and, if he replaces an IL'ed Stewart, that would affect the total payroll figure. Thanks for your thoughts.

I don't know whether Elias would burn an option which saves salary or IL Stewart but the early reports of his surgery sound like he will not be ready for OD.

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