People here seem to forget

[JTrea81]

It's all about context, boys and girls:

OPS+

2002 135

2003 145

2004 124

2005 98

2006 108

2007 103

2008 140

Peak in 2003, decline, decline, plateau at below-league-average for a DH/1B, then *pop* it's like he 26 all over over again.

He's in the majors, having fun from 2002-2003, gets sick of losing, loses motivation from 2004-2005, plays well enough to get traded in 2006, helps Houston down the stretch to try to get to the playoffs, signs a new contract wih the Orioles and presses to produce in 2007, Crowley fixes his stance in July and Huff reaps the benefit to salvage his season. Has two life changing events in the offseason and refocuses himself in 2008, and is having fun playing baseball again...

[Slappy]

It's all about context, boys and girls:

OPS+

2002 135

2003 145

2004 124

2005 98

2006 108

2007 103

2008 140

Peak in 2003, decline, decline, plateau at below-league-average for a DH/1B, then *pop* it's like he 26 all over over again. You want to count on the magic continuing, go right ahead. You rarely win anything betting on out-of-nowhere magic continuing for no good reason.

Like Guthrie?

[Mackus]

Like Guthrie?

If you can't see the difference between a guy having a resurgent year as a 31 y/o and a former 1st round pick being a late bloomer at age 26, I don't know what to tell you.

Huff might be able to repeat this year, but it is far from the most likely outcome. Him having an awful year like last year isn't the most likely outcome either. Sometime in between is the most likely outcome. If you are expecting him to have a 30+ HR / 90-+ OPS season next year, you are going to have a poor plan, because its unlikely he reaches that level.

For the past 5-6 years (mostly under Flanny) the O's have been built in a manner that if absolutely everybody on the team performs to their peak level, they would have been a good team. Thats a very stupid way of building a team. You have to expect players to perform to about their median expectations. Your pleasant surprises will usually be canceled out by your disappointments. It boggles my mind that anybody would actually plan on Huff reaching is absolute peak again next year. Plan for something reasonable from him, and if he exceeds that, you'll have a good problem. If you expect him to repeat this year and then don't make proper moves, you're gonna have a bad problem.

[DrungoHazewood]

He's in the majors, having fun from 2002-2003, gets sick of losing, loses motivation from 2004-2005, plays well enough to get traded in 2006, helps Houston down the stretch to try to get to the playoffs, signs a new contract wih the Orioles and presses to produce in 2007, Crowley fixes his stance in July and Huff reaps the benefit to salvage his season. Has two life changing events in the offseason and refocuses himself in 2008, and is having fun playing baseball again...

You're fitting simple explanations to a complex reality. It might be nice if this was true. But I would want something much more tangible if I were going to count on him to be a top performer for years to come.

[maudibjr]

I see absolutely no reason to think about moving Huff before next years trading deadline.

He will be in a contract year and is relatively affordable. He could easily have 3-4 more good years, but I would let some other team pay for them.

[Mackus]

He's in the majors, having fun from 2002-2003, gets sick of losing, loses motivation from 2004-2005, plays well enough to get traded in 2006, helps Houston down the stretch to try to get to the playoffs, signs a new contract wih the Orioles and presses to produce in 2007, Crowley fixes his stance in July and Huff reaps the benefit to salvage his season. Has two life changing events in the offseason and refocuses himself in 2008, and is having fun playing baseball again...

Where are the unicorns?

[hammer310]

It's all about context, boys and girls:

OPS+

2002 135

2003 145

2004 124

2005 98

2006 108

2007 103

2008 140

Peak in 2003, decline, decline, plateau at below-league-average for a DH/1B, then *pop* it's like he 26 all over over again. You want to count on the magic continuing, go right ahead. You rarely win anything betting on out-of-nowhere magic continuing for no good reason.

He may be a DH now but he wasn't before.

2003- 102 games in RF, 8 games at 3rd base, and 22 games at 1st base. That is 132 games out 162 he was in the field

2004- Played 8 games in LF, 1 game in RF, 87 at 3rd base, and 38 at 1st base. That is 134 games out of 162.

2005- Played 97 games in RF, 4 at 3rd base, and 25 games at 1st base. That is 126 games out of 162.

2006- Played 90 games at 3rd base, 3 at 1st base, and 37 games in RF. That is 130 games out of 162.

He became a full time DH when he came to Baltimore.

If he didnt have that crappy start to last year he would have had a season similar to this one. The only difference is he put it together this season, both before and after the break.

[SilentJames]

2002 TB .884

2003 TB .922

2004 TB .853

2005 TB .749

2006 Hou .819

2006 TB .809

2007 Bal .779

2008 Bal .917

I'd say the .749 and .779...

Wow, that's a case of selective proof. Let's add 3 more numbers to that:

.884

.922

.853

Not so obvious now.

No its not really. Looking at his career he has had more seasons over 800+ OPS than sub 800 OPS.

That is not to say I expect him to repeat what he is doing right now, but I don't expect him to fall off the table. He is only 31, he is not Kevin Millar.

The trade him crowd is right that his value will not be higher than it is right now. The odds of him repeating this year are slim, as much as I would love to count on him for a 900+ OPS next year you just can't do that.

Now I would expect him to be a solid 820-850 guy, which would put him in Jason Kubel, Hideki Matsui territory.

I really think the addition of Luke Scott has really been the sparkplug for this offense. With him lurking in the lineup Aubrey and Melvin have gotten more to hit. Add Weiters, a healthy and developing Jones, a growing Markakis and Huff looks better.

Still, if you can get a young SS and a decent starter for Huff then you move him.

[ledzepp8]

And some people wonder where the "Everyone here wants to trade everyone over 30" argument comes from.:scratchchinhmm:

Not saying I agree with that premise one way or another, but I can understand where someone like RShack could come up with it.

[DrungoHazewood]

And some people wonder where the "Everyone here wants to trade everyone over 30" argument comes from.:scratchchinhmm:

Not saying I agree with that premise one way or another, but I can understand where someone like RShack could come up with it.

Yea, if you're not really paying attention to the details of the arguments you could confuse "trade the expiring contracts and older players who're at peak value" for "trade everyone over thirty for whatever you can get."

[Mark Carver]

SG you and others want Tex to sign with Baltimore next season. To sign for 5 or 6 years. I know he is a better player than Huff but how can you or anyone else just ignore the 31 or 32 drop off age of Tex? That seems the age that some go by. I am just not ready to be so sure Huff will drop off next season at least not to the point some do. IMO

The last time Huff hit as good as he is doing today, was 5 years ago, in 2003! See the difference?

[JTrea81]

Still, if you can get a young SS and a decent starter for Huff then you move him.

And this is where I think the keep him crowd is being more realistic. A lot of people want to trade Huff because they fear he can't repeat this production, well I'm sure the other teams are thinking the same thing, and thus will not trade what he's truly worth or will even want us to kick in some cash and still won't give us what he's worth.

We won't get either of those two things for Huff in a trade so we might as well keep him and take the two draft picks he's going to get or wait until the deadline when teams aren't on the hook for a full year of salary and may want his bat enough to trade more than the equivalent of two draft picks.

Right now he's worth more to this team than he would be as a trade chip...

[ledzepp8]

Yea, if you're not really paying attention to the details of the arguments you could confuse "trade the expiring contracts and older players who're at peak value" for "trade everyone over thirty for whatever you can get."

There are points being made by both sides. The reasoning for the trade Huff crowd isn't solely because he has an expiring contract or could be at peak value. A lot of it stems from people predicting steep decline in production because he had a couple of subpar seasons in a row. The counterpoint to that is that he's not some ancient player as he's only 31. It's not like this is some career season for Huff. Except for a couple of average seasons, he's right around where he was earlier in his career.

[Mackus]

There are points being made by both sides. The reasoning for the trade Huff crowd isn't solely because he has an expiring contract or could be at peak value. A lot of it stems from people predicting steep decline in production because he had a couple of subpar seasons in a row. The counterpoint to that is that he's not some ancient player as he's only 31. It's not like this is some career season for Huff. Except for a couple of average seasons, he's right around where he was earlier in his career.

I think the option of trading Huff would be, by far, the greatest option, but for some reason, nobody seems to want him. There was no interest in him in July, and then nobody claimed him off of waivers. I don't really understand it, but teams just aren't interested.

I don't think we'll get a very good offer for him this offseason, so I think holding onto him is probably the best option at this point. But, if a good offer does come along, I definitely make the move.

[McNulty]

Yea, if you're not really paying attention to the details of the arguments you could confuse "trade the expiring contracts and older players who're at peak value" for "trade everyone over thirty for whatever you can get."

This is true, but if Huff was 27 or 28 we wouldn't be having this discussion about trading or keeping him. That's where Shack infers his logic from.