MLBTR: Orioles Outlook

[mdbdotcom]

40 minutes ago, Philip said:

So we need guys named Al?

A'l check and get back to you on that.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

I'd rather draft a guy with two 50 tools than one with four 40's.

Bubba Starling?

I think it depends on which tools.

[UpstateNYfan]

2 hours ago, weams said:

And a physical aberration in the sport.  Real tough to scout such physical outliers.

It is surely difficult, but I imagine there are some very good players out there that are dismissed because they don't meet the profile of a MLB player. It is not only physical differences, but age....many here dismiss players with good numbers because they are "old" by a year or two for the league they are in. Sometimes they just learn to play smarter. Not all  kids walk, speak, read at a given expected age...we shouldn't expect players to either.

 

[weams]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bubba Starling?

I think it depends on which tools.

No Tim Tebows for me. Thank you.

[weams]

1 minute ago, UpstateNYfan said:

It is surely difficult, but I imagine there are some very good players out there that are dismissed because they don't meet the profile of a MLB player. It is not only physical differences, but age....many here dismiss players with good numbers because they are "old" by a year or two for the league they are in. Sometimes they just learn to play smarter. Not all  kids walk, speak, read at a given expected age...we shouldn't expect players to either.

 

I think when the eventual net is only 900 players wide, it's took to look at all the variables that will produce that extreme outlier. It's not a flaw to the system, but a feature that top athletes at the proper ages get first shots. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

It is surely difficult, but I imagine there are some very good players out there that are dismissed because they don't meet the profile of a MLB player. It is not only physical differences, but age....many here dismiss players with good numbers because they are "old" by a year or two for the league they are in. Sometimes they just learn to play smarter. Not all  kids walk, speak, read at a given expected age...we shouldn't expect players to either.

 

DO you believe in the myth that many car mechanics could have played in the majors with the right breaks or support networks? I don't.

[tntoriole]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with anything you wrote. For the record, I was urgently in favor of letting Trumbo go and letting Mancini replace him, on the grounds that a cheap limited player is better than an expensive limited player. Yes he is an adequate first baseman, but nothing more, and adequate first basemen are plentiful. Heck, even Trumbo was an adequate first baseman, so were Mark Reynolds or Danny Valencia. And we have several other potentially adequate first basemen who will become the “limited and cheap” player that Trey will no longer be after next season(maybe after this season, too. Not sure where he is in the Arb sequence)

so trade him if possible or let him go when he gets too expensive and shuffle in another limited but cheap guy.

and try to stop drafting limited players.

The only part we perhaps disagree about is that I believe Trey will continue to significantly improve on 2019 and perhaps,  given the repeated use of the word limited, you do not.  Aalthough I am not sure what your ideal first baseman would be since Trey was at 3.7 WAR , 7th for all MLB first baseman and it would have been more without outfield defense drag and with  continued play only at first. . 

Alonso was top at 4.8 Muncy at 4.8 and Santana at 4.4, Freeman at 4.0.  I believe Trey can be a 4 WAR first baseman and is a better first baseman than Freeman defensively in my opinion.....what does that cost on the market these days?  

Anyway that is the trade argument I would be making...potential 4 WAR cost controlled first baseman for the next three years with off the charts character who can fill in a pinch in the outfield or DH. 

 

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

The only part we perhaps disagree about is that I believe Trey will continue to significantly improve on 2019 and perhaps,  given the repeated use of the word limited, you do not.  Aalthough I am not sure what your ideal first baseman would be since Trey was at 3.7 WAR , 7th for all MLB first baseman and it would have been more without outfield defense drag and with  continued play only at first. . 

Alonso was top at 4.8 Muncy at 4.8 and Santana at 4.4, Freeman at 4.0.  I believe Trey can be a 4 WAR first baseman and is a better first baseman than Freeman defensively in my opinion.....what does that cost on the market these days?  

Anyway that is the trade argument I would be making...potential 4 WAR cost controlled first baseman for the next three years with off the charts character who can fill in a pinch in the outfield or DH. 

 

Regarding improving, here's a Pete Alonso tidbit:

"He would tweet, 'I'm gonna play in Citi Field. I'm gonna make it,'" says the coach. "People called me and were laughing. Just last year people from the Mets told me they didn't think he was ever gonna field in the big leagues."

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/09/05/pete-alonso-new-york-mets

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

The only part we perhaps disagree about is that I believe Trey will continue to significantly improve on 2019 and perhaps,  given the repeated use of the word limited, you do not.  Aalthough I am not sure what your ideal first baseman would be since Trey was at 3.7 WAR , 7th for all MLB first baseman and it would have been more without outfield defense drag and with  continued play only at first. . 

Alonso was top at 4.8 Muncy at 4.8 and Santana at 4.4, Freeman at 4.0.  I believe Trey can be a 4 WAR first baseman and is a better first baseman than Freeman defensively in my opinion.....what does that cost on the market these days?  

Anyway that is the trade argument I would be making...potential 4 WAR cost controlled first baseman for the next three years with off the charts character who can fill in a pinch in the outfield or DH. 

 

I think you are very optimistic to think Mancini can average 4 WAR in his 28-30 seasons.

[HowAboutThat]

33 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

The only part we perhaps disagree about is that I believe Trey will continue to significantly improve on 2019 and perhaps,  given the repeated use of the word limited, you do not.  Aalthough I am not sure what your ideal first baseman would be since Trey was at 3.7 WAR , 7th for all MLB first baseman and it would have been more without outfield defense drag and with  continued play only at first. . 

Alonso was top at 4.8 Muncy at 4.8 and Santana at 4.4, Freeman at 4.0.  I believe Trey can be a 4 WAR first baseman and is a better first baseman than Freeman defensively in my opinion.....what does that cost on the market these days?  

Anyway that is the trade argument I would be making...potential 4 WAR cost controlled first baseman for the next three years with off the charts character who can fill in a pinch in the outfield or DH. 

 

Yeah that’s right, he did very well, and would have done better if he weren’t forced into the outfield,but consider a team has a certain amount of money to spend, every dollar you spend on a first baseman is a dollar you can’t spend anywhere else, and other positions are probably more important. That’s why Mark Reynolds still has a job( although Danny does not)

I have no problem with trading Trey, or keeping him, and if we trade him, it’s highly likely that one of the guys in the wings can do as well.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think you are very optimistic to think Mancini can average 4 WAR in his 28-30 seasons.

How can you not be an optimist and root for this team? 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

How can you not be an optimist and root for this team? 

I manage.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Yeah that’s right, he did very well, and would have done better if he weren’t forced into the outfield,but consider a team has a certain amount of money to spend, every dollar you spend on a first baseman is a dollar you can’t spend anywhere else, and other positions are probably more important. That’s why Mark Reynolds still has a job( although Danny does not)

I have no problem with trading Trey, or keeping him, and if we trade him, it’s highly likely that one of the guys in the wings can do as well.

Well, maybe we have plenty of those 3-4 WAR, .900 OPS  guys in the wings down there at Bowie or Norfolk....not that I see any of them waiting out there in the midst of being the worst team in baseball.   

The reality is, sure, we can replace him at first with someone less productive and less expensive, with the idea you can spend the money elsewhere and get more value.  That is what all teams think.  But then you actually have to do that, not just speculate about it.  Which becomes a crap shoot when you trade anyone. 

 But our reality is we have lost way more than 200 games the last two years and are the worst team in baseball.  So...maybe we had best think twice about one of the only valuable players we have before we just conclude he is Danny Valencia.  .  At least I hope Elias thinks it through a little more and a little differently. 

[UpstateNYfan]

3 hours ago, weams said:

DO you believe in the myth that many car mechanics could have played in the majors with the right breaks or support networks? I don't.

Oh, nice one...great, superlative, 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Well, maybe we have plenty of those 3-4 WAR, .900 OPS  guys in the wings down there at Bowie or Norfolk....not that I see any of them waiting out there in the midst of being the worst team in baseball.   

The reality is, sure, we can replace him at first with someone less productive and less expensive, with the idea you can spend the money elsewhere and get more value.  That is what all teams think.  But then you actually have to do that, not just speculate about it.  Which becomes a crap shoot when you trade anyone. 

 But our reality is we have lost way more than 200 games the last two years and are the worst team in baseball.  So...maybe we had best think twice about one of the only valuable players we have before we just conclude he is Danny Valencia.  .  At least I hope Elias thinks it through a little more and a little differently. 

I don’t actually think you and I are disagreeing too much.

My main point is that it is likely that Mountcastle will hit enough to replace Mancini. Mountcastle’s defense limits him, to put it politely, and it is hoped he will be an adequate left fielder, But there is talk of him ending up at first base. The same was said of Stewart, And it’s way too early to write him off, but he’s been pretty dreadful.

But if either of those guys hits roughly as well as Mancini, it makes terrific sense to trade Mancini and look forward to three league minimum years of approximately the same thing.