Hangouter's Top 30 Prospects lists

[tntoriole]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm torn between being pleased you included Rodriguez and shocked you included Grenier.

I am a Beavers fan...what can I say?  lol.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

I am a Beavers fan...what can I say?  lol.  

That would explain why you have Rutschman so high.

[DirtyBird]

1	Adley Rutschman
2	DL Hall
3	Ryan Mountcastle
4	Grayson Rodriguez
5	Austin Hays
6	Hunter Harvey
7	Dean Kremer
8	Yusniel Diaz
9	Gunnar Henderson
10	Michael Baumann
11	Zac Lowther
12	Drew Rom
13	Darell Hernaiz
14	Kyle Stowers
15	Keegan Akin
16	Alex Wells
17	Adam Hall
18	Ryan McKenna
19	Johnny Rizer
20	Bruce Zimmerman
21	Adam Stauffer
22	Rylan Bannon
23	Zach Watson
24	Grey Fenter
25	Cody Sedlock
26	Zach Pop
27	Mason McCoy
28	Brenan Hanifee
29	Leonardo Rodriguez
30	Toby Welk

[weams]

38 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

1	Adley Rutschman
2	DL Hall
3	Ryan Mountcastle
4	Grayson Rodriguez
5	Austin Hays
6	Hunter Harvey
7	Dean Kremer
8	Yusniel Diaz
9	Gunnar Henderson
10	Michael Baumann
11	Zac Lowther
12	Drew Rom
13	Darell Hernaiz
14	Kyle Stowers
15	Keegan Akin
16	Alex Wells
17	Adam Hall
18	Ryan McKenna
19	Johnny Rizer
20	Bruce Zimmerman
21	Adam Stauffer
22	Rylan Bannon
23	Zach Watson
24	Grey Fenter
25	Cody Sedlock
26	Zach Pop
27	Mason McCoy
28	Brenan Hanifee
29	Leonardo Rodriguez
30	Toby Welk

Mountcastle gonna beast. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Is the talent gap that significant between low and high A ball?

I don’t expect Knight in the top 30 then based on your evaluation. He certainly pitched like a non-prospect when he was at Frederick, so I can’t argue if there were no other factors at play. 

I watched a start of his where he gave up like two hits in the Sally League and he couldn't command anything. He threw enough strikes with a breaking balls to get outs, but not a lot of quality strikes. I'd like to see him in relief before totally burying him though.

[sportsfan8703]

You guys have done great so far. I’d have 3ish DSL guys on there. At least the two from the Cashner trade. Usually I think too much stock gets placed in recent draft picks, but not when you’re drafting #1 each round. Since were massively rebuilding, forget floors, gimme ceilings. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You guys have done great so far. I’d have 3ish DSL guys on there. At least the two from the Cashner trade. Usually I think too much stock gets placed in recent draft picks, but not when you’re drafting #1 each round. Since were massively rebuilding, forget floors, gimme ceilings. 

So this is an interesting topic of floor vs ceiling and do you rank players based on a projected MLB value or by the player's fit with their current team's status and needs.

I rank players on projected value, it's more back of the hand than exact numbers, but for example...

Good but not great DSL OF prospect - 80% chance of no MLB value (0 WAR), 5% chance AAA depth/up and down (.5 WAR over team controlled years), 5% chance 4th OF (3 WAR), 5% chance regular (12 WAR), 4% chance above average regular ( 18 WAR), 1% chance star (30 WAR) = 1.8 WAR

Relief Prospect who was replacement level in their first taste of MLB ball, but has good stuff - 25% chance no value(0 WAR) 25% chance up and down/depth (.5 WAR), 25% chance middle relief (3 WAR), 15% chance good middle relief (4 WAR), 10% chance setup (6 WAR) = 2.07 WAR

So while the DSL prospect has a 10% chance of being worth 12+ WAR and the relief prospect has 0% chance, I'd rank the relief prospect higher. Now, if the Orioles had a chance to trade for either of these two players, I'd pick the DSL prospect every day of the week given the Orioles situation. But in a prospect ranking, the reliever comes first for me and I'd aggressively upgrade the DSL prospect's ranking as he got out of rookie ball and the risk profile got more favorable. 

[Sir_Loin]

Need to add Josue Cruz to this list. Huge bat out of the Dominican.

[Luke-OH]

Also, I think it's generally assumed that younger guys have higher ceilings and while that is sometimes the case, I think that sometimes it's  just the young guys haven't had a chance to show they don't have a high ceiling yet. 

It's like do you want a #4 starting pitcher or a mystery box, the mystery box could be anything, even a #4 starting pitcher. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sir_Loin said:

Need to add Josue Cruz to this list. Huge bat out of the Dominican.

I got nothing on Josue Cruz other than the DSL stats which I put very little weight on. 

Have you seen him play? If so, what's the raw power, what's his future defensive position? If not, why do you think he needs to be on the list?

[Sir_Loin]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I got nothing on Josue Cruz other than the DSL stats which I put very little weight on. 

Have you seen him play? If so, what's the raw power, what's his future defensive position? If not, why do you think he needs to be on the list?

I've seen him play. I think he has enough speed to stick on a corner OF position, but his arm strength will be a test. The raw power is real. His BP was a show.

[Luke-OH]

43 minutes ago, Sir_Loin said:

I've seen him play. I think he has enough speed to stick on a corner OF position, but his arm strength will be a test. The raw power is real. His BP was a show.

So fringe to below LF arm, average run, above to plus raw, maybe fringe corner glove? So like Robert Neustrom but further away, or is the hit tool significantly better or is there double plus future pop?

[Es4M11]

For those with more knowledge than me: which prospect in the system has the highest potential ceiling?

Is it a given that the answer is Rutschman? I tend to think maybe DL Hall could be the answer if he can figure out how to consistently control his stuff.

[weams]

Anyone else giving the list a shot?

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Anyone else giving the list a shot?

No, but reading the list and learning names.