What Will Be the Biggest Orioles Headline this Offseason?

[mdbdotcom]

Randy "Moose" Milligan to attempt comeback with O's at age 57.

[mdbdotcom]

Bundy Binges on Broccoli, Fastball Velo Returns to 97

[weams]

3 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

"Biggest" is a relative term (kind of like marriage in WV)

Will Mancini be traded?   Villar? Any free agent signings?  Will the offseason be a hot stove or a cold fridge?  

Cold Fridge with Villar, Mancini, and Bundy traded.  And that is my prediction. Unless Villar is non-tendered. Which he may be. Under no circumstance to I see the Orioles going to war Miss Agnes with two out the the three of them next season. 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Bundy Binges on Broccoli, Fastball Velo Returns to 97

Placed on injured list with cruciferous vegetable gastritis. 

[TonySoprano]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Cold Fridge with Villar, Mancini, and Bundy traded.  And that is my prediction. Unless Villar is non-tendered. Which he may be. Under no circumstance to I see the Orioles going to war Miss Agnes with two out the the three of them next season. 

I don't expect much of a return on either Villar or Bundy in particular.  Maybe somebody sees Dylan as a reclamation project a la Arrieta.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

I don't expect much of a return on either Villar or Bundy in particular.  Maybe somebody sees Dylan as a reclamation project a la Arrieta.

I think Bundy is fixable, and if somebody can figure out a solution, he would become almost unhittable.

 

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I'll settle for spending the remaining J2 slots and the Rule 5 draft (which I have a twisted affection for).

Me too. Rule 5 day is my favorite.

[HowAboutThat]

“Orioles release Chris Davis”

[Just Regular]

It wouldn't make many waves nationally, but on this board it would be a Villar non-tender.

In the category of trades involving reasonable players earning about $10M for 2020 where Team A isn't jazzed about having them at that pricepoint, and Team B would take them and has to give at least someone back to make it a "trade", the Blue Jays acquired Chase Anderson today.

I get that he has some surplus value, but I also feel like the big round numbers Villar compiled his way into are going to make clubs anxious about giving arbitrators the power to set his 2020 salary.

[weams]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-trade-chase-anderson-blue-jays.html

Interesting value decisions  

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-trade-chase-anderson-blue-jays.html

Interesting value decisions  

He's Steamer projection for 2020 is 1.1 fWAR, so if you value a Win at 8M, that's pretty much what he'll be making. If you think he has some ability to beat his FIP with some consistency, there is the value of the 2021 option and the FV 35+ prospect coming back. 

For comparison, since we've been talking about Bundy, Bundy projects to 2 fWAR in 2020. So if his arbitration salary is 6M, and a win is 8M, then you have 10M of surplus just for 2020 and he's under control for two more seasons (albeit with lessening surplus value as he gets more expensive). So that's a fringe top 100 type return if you assume a team's projection system is somewhat similar.

[weams]

40 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He's Steamer projection for 2020 is 1.1 fWAR, so if you value a Win at 8M, that's pretty much what he'll be making. If you think he has some ability to beat his FIP with some consistency, there is the value of the 2021 option and the FV 35+ prospect coming back. 

For comparison, since we've been talking about Bundy, Bundy projects to 2 fWAR in 2020. So if his arbitration salary is 6M, and a win is 8M, then you have 10M of surplus just for 2020 and he's under control for two more seasons (albeit with lessening surplus value as he gets more expensive). So that's a fringe top 100 type return if you assume a team's projection system is somewhat similar.

As I posted in another thread, the Angels declined 2.3 WAR Kole Calhoun at 13 million additional. So they are either thinking there is regression or WAR is worth less than 7 in real world practices. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, weams said:

As I posted in another thread, the Angels declined 2.3 WAR Kole Calhoun at 13 million additional. do they are either thinking there is regression or WAR is worth less than 7 in real world practices. 

Steamer (the projection system I referenced before) has Calhoun at 1.5 WAR in 2020, so that's 12M at a 8M/WAR valuation making the 13M seem like a minor overpay. 

Always good to keep in mind that teams don't pay for past performance and Calhoun is 32 and had a abysmal 2018. 

[weams]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Steamer (the projection system I referenced before) has Calhoun at 1.5 WAR in 2020, so that's 12M at a 8M/WAR valuation making the 13M seem like a minor overpay. 

Always good to keep in mind that teams don't pay for past performance and Calhoun is 32 and had a abysmal 2018. 

Good explanation as always. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

Good explanation as always. 

I want to be clear that Steamer isn't equal to a team's own projection system, but forward looking projections are absolutely how teams are making these decisions.